So welcome to the Raymond James 2023 TMT and Consumer Conference. My name is John Davis. I lead the Fintech and Payments research effort here at Raymond James. We're excited to have Open Lending CEO Keith Jezek and CFO Chuck Jehl with us this morning. We're gonna do a fireside chat, and we'll leave some, some questions or time for questions at the end. First off, thanks, guys, for joining us. Thanks for having us. Yes. Thank Thank you. Glad to be here. Yeah. Smoke fire alarms and all. So Keith, you know, I think there may be some listening that they're maybe newer to the story, some in the room. So maybe just start with kind of a brief overview of the Open Lending story, kind of what you guys do, how you make money, and just kind of a high level, you know, couple minutes on the business. Yeah, happy to provide that. Again, thank you, everybody, for being here this morning. Again, JD, you mentioned my name is Keith Jezek, CEO of Open Lending. It's really a fascinating story and a fascinating business model. Our mission, simply stated, is to improve and change lives by making transportation affordable. So let me say that again, to improve and change lives by making transportation affordable. And what does that mean? I think the best way to think about it is if you just try to deconstruct the auto lending landscape, just based simply on a FICO score, going maybe from left to right, from deep subprime all the way to what we would call super prime. I think it's safe to say that the market is very efficient on the prime or the super prime side of the house. So we would all know if we went into a dealership or a bank to get a loan with a great FICO score, that, that ecosystem is very efficient. Contrast that with the exact opposite flip side of the coin, subprime. The subprime market is very efficient as well. I mean, we have buy here, pay here lots. We have banks that specialized in subprime-type paper. What we focus on is the near and pro, near and non-prime segment. So call it, you know, 580 FICO up to 700. And that market to date, without Open Lending, has been pretty messy and pretty inefficient. The effect of that is that a consumer, if he or she goes in to buy a car, they, since they're in this kind of this middle ground of the lending ecosystem, they get shunted into the subprime side of the side of the house, and that means that they just simply have to pay more for the auto loan than they should have. Enter Open Lending, with over 20 years of proprietary data, supplemented by the most recent advances in machine learning and AI. We provide credit decisions in near real time, and then we enhance those credit decisions with credit default insurance, with A-rated insurance providers. We can go to a lender and offer that lender an ability to loan to a cohort of consumers that perhaps they wouldn't do before, but do that in a risk-mitigated environment because we provide credit insurance or default insurance against that risk of default. If you think about it, most everybody, everybody in the ecosystem wins. The consumer wins, because as we just talked about, that consumer, instead of getting a really high interest rate from a subprime lender, gets a good rate from a lender that's working with Open Lending. The dealer wins because they can help put that consumer in a car that he or she wants. Certainly, our insurance partners win because they're writing nice paper with us. The lender wins because of the cohort of consumers that they're addressing. Then last but not least, we win. As you can look at our EBITDA margins, we do very well. So in a nutshell, that's what we do at Open Lending. Okay, great. And then obviously, we're in a very uncertain macro environment. So I'm gonna ask the obligatory kind of quarter date update question. You know, you guys reported about a month ago, guided. Just curious, kind of things tracking as you expected so far, any surprises, either positively or negatively so far? Yeah, no surprises for the quarter or anything? Yeah, no, not at all. And tracking as expected, JD, and we put out the guide at the on the third quarter call. Okay, great. So you know, I wanted to talk a little bit about the third quarter and the kind of profit share. There's some, maybe some investors that may not be as familiar with the profit share. So Chuck, maybe just at a high level, talk about the profit share and then kind of what happened with the negative revision in the third quarter, and also how we should think about that going forward. Just, you know, how it works, and maybe talk about some of the things you've done, either raising price or term and to kind of insulate you on the profit share side. No, no, great. Maybe start out with, you know, profit share. So as Keith pointed out, we have four A-rated insurance carriers that we do business with. We don't actually are not the insurance company, they are, but we participate and are aligned with them, and our largest revenue stream is profit share, and we get 72% of the unit economics. So basically, earned premiums, less cost to run the program, minus claims, equal profit share, and we get 72% of that. So we're aligned to underwriting decision, you know, obviously with a very risk-mitigated approach and are very aligned with the carriers. So in the third quarter, as JD pointed out, we had a negative adjustment to our contract asset. Our contract asset is our future right to receive our share of that profit share over time, because it's paid monthly, but we book it under ASC 606 all up front. So each quarter, we reassess that and mark that down or up. Historically, you know, if you look at it, we took an $8 million adjustment in the third quarter, but if you look at it since we adopted the pronouncement in 2019, we've had net positive $20 million in adjustments. So it's just an estimate that you true up each quarter. You know, the things that we've done in this environment to kind of safeguard not only us from a risk perspective and for the appropriate risk we're taking in our carriers is we increase insurance premiums. We did that first in Q2 of 2022, about a 13% increase in premiums, and then we did it again in Q2 of 2023, about a 5% increase. So nearly 20% increase in premiums over the last, call it 18 months, to really, in this credit environment, rising delinquencies and defaults, to appropriately price for the risk. So if you think about the last four quarters, five quarters, you know, we've put on the books the new originations, anywhere between $540 - $550 per unit economics, and that's stressed at about a 27% stress. So what goes into that is default frequency, which is claim frequency, severity of loss, which is driven by used vehicle value prices, and then there's prepaid speeds. All of that goes in. If we didn't, if we had not stressed that 27%, profit should be about $800 per unit economics, but we put it on the books around $540 for Q3. So the increased premiums, we feel like, has helped us preserve our unit economics on that front. The $8 million is all related to the back book of business, on the provision that we wrote down in the third quarter. So that was you think about Q2 of 2023 back. So over $400,000 loans are in the portfolio. So, you know, we feel like we've taken the appropriate stress based on what we know today, and we'll continue to monitor it every quarter. Okay, great. Just want to touch on the macro backdrop for a second. I think tailwind or headwind is probably not strong enough of a term. You know, kind of everything from a macro perspective that could go wrong is going wrong, whether it's higher rates, used car prices being elevated, you know, liquidity constraints at some of your, credit union partners, delinquencies kind of rising and just across the board. So, you know, how do we think about supply versus demand, you know, from your perspective? Like, what's the governor on growth or two more certs, or kind of what are the green shoots also that you're looking for, for, you know, signs that things could be getting better? Maybe just talk about each kind of headwind, and kind of how you're thinking about it. Yeah, it's a great question. I mean, there's no doubt that a lot of, you know, headwinds are facing the business right now, and even through that, we're doing very, very well. And as we all know, you know, generating, you know, mid-50% EBITDA margins, you know, even in these, you know, lower transaction volume times. To take them one at a time, let's just start with the car market. So maybe starting with new, probably one of the brightest green shoots that we have is we see that the new car market is coming back, you know, very nicely, although kind of slowly. So if you just think of new car sales that are gonna be compared to last year, up modestly, so high single digits. of kind of a bellwether that we look at is trying to see that market change from a supply-constrained environment to more of a demand, you know, generated environment, and that's happening. So what we look at is the number of cars on dealers' lots or in transit on new. That number has reached 2.4 million. Pre-pandemic, it was always around 3 million. It got down below 1 million, so it's been coming back nice and steadily. And you see a couple of results of that. One is just that for the first time in about 2.5 years, the average transaction price of a new car is below MSRP. So for a very long period of time, the transaction price of a new car was higher than the MSRP. Now we see that coming down. So that kind of suggests that we're maybe in a less of supply-constrained environment, and there's more demand power. The second thing we see is a strong uptick in incentives offered by the OEMs. So on the new side of the house, even with the UAW strike, we see just a nice kind of rebound happening there. On the used side, we're still in a pretty profoundly supply-constrained environment. With the chip shortages and the supply channel problems that we had in 2021 and 2022, we made a lot fewer newer cars. That gives them not a chance to become a used car at this moment in time, so we're still in a supply-constrained environment. That said, importantly, used car wholesale prices are now at their lowest level since March of 2021. So used car prices are coming down, even in this supply-constrained environment. So we've got new, we've seen some green shoots there. We've got lower prices, which are good for consumers on, on the used car side. That leads us to affordability. So the affordability index, which is tracked by Cox and Moody's, has been kind of at an all-time high. As you might imagine, if you have high prices and you have high interest rates, that all kind of puts together in the blender to make affordability at an all-time high. That even is ticking down. So even with 23-year high interest rates, the drop in prices of used cars has led to that affordability index, you know, ticking down just a little bit. So those are some of the things that we've been fighting against, and then what we see is coming out of that. Okay, and so maybe shifting over to, you know, credit union and bank partners, there have been some liquidity challenges there, as a lot of them took a little too much 3%, 30-year mortgages. But maybe talk a little bit about, you know, what you're seeing there. Is that starting to improve? And is that kind of a governor on, on growth today, or, you know, is it really more on the, you know, kind of demand side as far as the ability for maybe the supply side, rather, for the ability for all the things that we just talked about in the auto market? Right. I guess, what's the bigger headwind, and are you starting to see the liquidity challenges that some of your partners improve? So the liquidity challenges are a very real event at credit unions. So credit unions received a lot of stimulus money during COVID. They're very conservatively managed and conservatively governed, and so they took a lot of that money, put them in long-duration, inflated bonds just to be safe. And so where they find themselves now is the market's coming back ever so slowly, is that they're liquidity-constrained. And that liquidity is represented by a metric that they track called loan to share, which is just simply what's my ratio of loans to what they call shares or their deposits, and that rate is pretty high. It's in the early-mid 80s, which historically has been in the 70s. And with our cohort of lenders, who were kind of early adopters, it's actually around 100. And so this liquidity, it's a great question. The liquidity that you mentioned is an issue that we're facing, but there does seem to be kind of, you know, help on the horizon. The way that we work ourselves out of this is the way they've done it for a long, long time, which is increasing deposits. I just read in The Wall Street Journal, you know, flying up here yesterday, there's overnight money is being paid at 4%, 12-year CDs that are offering 5.25% to attract deposits, and so that's a play that they ran in the Great Recession and did very well. Just loan run off, which is just happening in the normal course, and securitizations, and to a lesser extent, borrowings. So we do see that they've come down. Growth of loans at credit unions has been the lowest it's been in some time, and actually, share growth has been as low as it's been in a long time. So we think we're kind of at the trough of that and seeing some way to grow out of that. Okay. And maybe just let's take a step back and just talk about the near non-prime auto market here in the U.S. I think you guys have given a stat. There's about $270 billion of volume there, and your share is, you know, less than 2%. Right, right. But just, just talk about the opportunity, you know, where, who you see, like, what are the biggest competitors? Like, who can you take share from? You know, this is- you had a massive opportunity ahead of you, and just- Right Maybe talk a little bit about the competitive landscape and just the overall market opportunity. Well, to be clear, I think what you're asking is the competitive landscape, not for us, but for our lenders. Yes. We are in a position where with the moat that we have with the insurance carriers, with the data, proprietary data set we have, with the regulatory know-how, we really don't have any direct competition. What we're referring to is just on any time an auto loan is trying to get made, there's a lot of competition, you know, for that loan, no matter what the credit score of the consumer is. So the 2% penetration that we have as JD points out, there is a very large market for this near and non-prime loan origination segment, totaling some $280 billion a year, and we have a very small portion of that. And we focused historically, just simply on credit unions. So the auto lending landscape breaks out really elegantly, a third, a third, a third. A third credit unions, a third banks, a third captives. So we've got about 10% share of the credit union space. So we've got about 450 credit union. There's about 4,500 credit unions in the U.S. We have some share of the auto, OEM captive market, and an even smaller share of the, of the bank market. So we will focus and continue to grow in the credit union sector, but tackle and, and address more deeply the OEM captives market and the bank market as well. I think we had a question. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Go ahead, yeah. On that note, the market was anticipating some announcements on the OEM captive side- Right ... and I know those have been sidelined a little bit. But just want to hear a little bit more from you about that addressable market that's non-credit union based. Right. And then, when you look across that landscape, do you think that there will be opportunity to work with other loan origination partners that have a wider net, like Jack Henry or Fiserv or others, to try to just grow your market penetration, in light of the fact that those other loan origination servicers don't have the kind of IP that you have? Can you leverage that in their network to, you know, enter into that too? Yeah, without a doubt. I mean, the question was, could we, you know, what's the ability to enter into these other markets? Because we've been credit union-focused for so long, and could we partner? Entering into the captive market will be very straightforward for us. We have two OEM captive customers now that are doing very well and actually growing year- on- year. Right. So they're doing very well. And then, the value proposition that we have is only getting better over time. So, I think what happened is, is maybe a little bit ahead of our chips, talking about OEM number three and OEM number four. What happened at that moment in time, is if you recall, during the pandemic, used car prices spiked so much that cars were actually appreciating in value. Cars never appreciate, they always depreciate in value. So there was a moment in time where any lender could repossess a car, take it to auction, and actually make money on the transaction. So they would tell us: "We don't really need your beautiful credit default elegant solution because we're making money at the auction." We had to tell them: "Look, that's not gonna last forever." And of course, it hasn't. So our value proposition has only gotten better with those players. Our discussions are more in the pipeline than we've ever had, and, you know, deeper discussions with these, you know, large enterprise accounts. Then, as far as partnering, we're integrated with, you know, 80%-85% of all the LOSs out there already and would love to... But those are all very credit union-centric. Right. I think, to your good point, we would be open to partnerships with anybody in the non-credit union space. And maybe I do wanna touch on the refi opportunity. I think, Chuck, you mentioned on the last call, I think, ex refi certs are up 3%, year- to- date. You know, I think it's pretty impressive, given all the headwinds. Clearly, you know, not a lot of refi opportunity when rates are just screaming higher, like they have been. But maybe talk a little bit about that product and, you know, and maybe a more normal environment. You know, what percentage of certs, you know, could that be on kind of a normalized basis? You know, great question. Yeah, you know, if you just normalize... I kinda repeat what, JD said. Year- to- date, certs and, for Open Lending, if you remove it from both periods, 2023 and 2022, we're actually up 3%, which is encouraging. And Keith's point to the two OEMs are actually up 21%, so all in, that's, that's very good, for the business as we think about it. You know, rates started increasing, gosh, April of 2022, I believe. So we got as high as 43% of our book was refinance in 2022, and that was February 2022. Then, the rates started going, that business kind of slowed. I think it's, you know, mid-30s%, full year. So we went as low as, you know, 3%, I think, last quarter, and it's starting to climb a little bit. But we don't really need rates to come down to where they were pre-pandemic. We just... You know, we got about eight rechannel, you know, refinance channel partners that we work with, that go out and look for opportunities to save the consumer, you know, on their payment. 'Cause as Keith pointed out, affordability is a huge deal to the near non-prime consumer. But we just need rates to stabilize for four-six months, and not go up. So, you know, the Fed action in December, you know, I think the whisper here is maybe no action. You know, if we can get that period to where they're not going up and stabilizing for a period of time in the two-year, we have an opportunity to go save a consumer money, so. And we believe that's gonna be, you know, beneficial in 2024 for our refinance channel, so. Yeah, and I would just add that, that interest rates being charged to consumers for both new and used are at 23%-25%- Absolutely ... year highs. And so when this refinance market comes back, it'll come back as strong as it's ever been because consumers are being put in car loans that at the highest interest rate it's been in a quarter century. You know, JD, I mean, as we think about diversifying, you know, larger accounts and you know, more OEMs down the road and you know, banks, et cetera, and partnerships, you know, hesitant to give a percent that can grow to again. We know that it can continue to be a big impact and a big part of our business, but, you know, 40% was a pretty high percentage you know, in 2022. But we believe we can grow that into double digits, you know, well into the double digits. And, just one more thought we'll take the question is, is not to go too deep there, is that, that's kind of a wonderful hedge just against the- Absolutely ... car market in and of itself, because it doesn't involve the sale of new metal... or new to the consumer, you know, metal, either new or used. It's, it's refinancing the car that's just sitting in the, in the consumer's driveway already. That they've built up equity and, you know, a lower risk from an insurance perspective as well. So, yes. I think you mentioned that excluding refi, the rest of the loans were up low single digits- Yep, that's right. But if you break it down by quarter, I guess in the first half, it was up high single digits, and then in the third quarter, it was down high single digits. So what was kind of caused the 2Q to 3Q drop like that? It's really just the rate actions over, over last year, you know, that was coming down last year as well. If you, if you think about the... what-- at this point last year, I think we were already up 400 basis points, maybe in, in, in the Fed funds rate. So it was just the impact. It, it went up quicker, you know, pretty fast last year, and I think Q3 of last year was really already up 400 basis points. And now they're up 525, 550. Yeah. So it impacted our business throughout 2020-- in the, in the second half of 2022 into 2023. It got worse in the last quarter then? You know, we had a little bit of a Q2 to Q3. We had a new refi channel partner come on in Q2 that had some volume. There was a little bit of kind of a carryover issue from Q2 to Q3, but removing that... Yeah, that's a good point. From Q2 to Q3, I think we were 11% down to 7%, is what you're probably looking at. Q2 to Q3 refinance of the mix. Yeah, we have one- Just looking at certs- Yeah as refi. Yeah, yeah. A little bit- Yeah. Yeah, a little bit of a carryover from Q2. We had a new partner come on, a new credit union that then slowed back down based on the, you know, a lot of refi business, and then the rate environment continuing to go up. So, yeah. All right. And Keith, I wanted to double-click- Yeah For Keith and Chuck, on a comment you made earlier, is like, despite all these top-line headwinds and kind of a macro environment that probably really couldn't be worse, you're still putting up kind of 50% EBITDA margins. So just wanna talk about the operating leverage in the business. You know, obviously, the margins are down from 65+, you know, in prior years, but, you know, how should we think about normalized margins? Why is the business... Like, why can you have a 50, 60, you know, +% margin, you know? Like you said earlier, you don't really have any direct competition for what you guys do. But just wanna talk a little bit about margins and how you guys think about the operating leverage in the business. Well, I'll start with just saying that we have continued to invest in the business you know, just even throughout this down cycle, which is because we believe so strongly in the long-term, you know, opportunity that we have ahead of us. And so we've invested in our, you know, technology, moved fully to the cloud. We've introduced and launched a new scorecard which is very important, you know, progress for us. Made improvements and progress on all of our go-to-market, whether it be, you know, marketing, account management, or sales. So even with increased investment, you know, the margins are still strong. Yeah. As far as the margin profile, I'll let Chuck address that. Yeah, I mean, above average, as you pointed out, I mean, even at, you know, the higher cert levels in 2021 and 2022, you know, we're 65%-70%. So to Keith's point, having those really strong margins has allowed us to invest at these lower levels. And going forward, as we grow the business, I mean, we're gonna have the operating leverage for sure in the gross margin and in the EBITDA margin, because, you know, obviously, the back office is in a good spot. Where we've invested today is revenue generation. That's gonna really prepare us for that pent-up demand when it comes back. I think Keith says it best, I mean, this business and the value props there is just a cold spring, just waiting for the recovery, and then inevitably will happen. Yeah, we think we can absolutely leverage both gross and EBITDA margins- Okay ... to grow. Yeah. And I think Keith touched on this a little bit earlier, but clearly, no one has a crystal ball, you know, heading into 2024. Correct. Like, the green shoots you mentioned, the affordability index. If you were to think about, like, one or two things that we, as investors and analysts, should be looking for, for signs that the macro is improving, like, what are the one, two, three things that we should be focused on, kind of looking for signs of improvement? Well, I think it begins a lot with just the rate environment. So if we can, you know, just have rates stabilized for a while, and I think, as Chuck mentioned, that's maybe the whisper or maybe it's growing beyond a whisper, that rates, you know, might stabilize and maybe even, you know, come down just a little bit in 2024. You know, that goes a long way just across everything that we do, but, you know, primarily impacting the consumer. We keep our eyes just on the market, the auto market in general. You know, obviously, just I think goodness and new kind of translates into goodness and used. One thing I didn't mention is there's been a really rapid growth in the fleet component of new sales. So we typically just look at new sales as what we call the SAAR, at 15.6 million. The component of that, which is fleet, is actually growing faster than the retail side of that. And that fleet, you know, whether it be commercial, you know, business or rental car, comes into the used car market much more quickly. So if we can get these cars to go to fleet, come into the used market more quickly, increase supply, drive price down, if we can have a little bit of a trickling down of interest rates and a nice, you know, complement of that with used car prices dipping down a little bit, that's just, you know, a foolproof that we can lean into. And then we just have to look at the credit unions and their loan to share. Yeah. What we've done to combat that is really target new prospects, which are large accounts that have technology that we've already integrated with and that have a loan to share that allows them to do more lending with us. Okay. So those are things that we- Yeah ... keep our eyes on. All right, great. So we talked about credit unions, talked about the value prop you guys provide, but wanted to talk a little bit about the insurance partners. You have four, I think one, one's not renewing, but obviously, plenty of capacity there. So maybe just talk about what the value prop is for the insurance partners, why you've kind of grown that over time. You know, I assume that there's no kind of capacity constraints at this point, given the challenge macro environment. But if things were to return, do you need to add insurance partners, or, you know, can your current, I guess, remaining three kind of bear the load of the, you know, hopefully improving loans. Yeah, I'll start. Yeah, I mean, you know, great relationships with our carrier partners. You know, when we came out public, we had two, and you know, we had higher certain levels there in 2021 and 2022, obviously. So as good risk managers, we added two more, one in 2021 and one in 2022. So today, where we sit, even with the one partner not renewing to write new business, they'll still be in business with us for, you know, the tail and the run-off. They've thousands of loans that are insured, and we have a great relationship with CNA. So with that, yeah, we're, you know, we're always looking. I mean, we're very you know, it's a partnership. We literally bring the carriers in, you know, a couple of times a year to align on if it's pricing, if it's underwriting, what have you. And it's very, you know, engaged and aligned. So you know, as we grow the business, ample capacity today, going forward, and you know, for this year and the next year, and you know, as we grow the business, you know, the appetite is strong with you know, the three that we have writing new business today and feel like we have you know, sufficient capacity. But you know, as good risk managers, we'll always keep an eye on that and have a bench of potential you know, carriers that want to write this program. Okay, great. I don't know if you want to add anything. It's good, yeah. Obviously, you know, we talked about margins, that one of the benefits of the high margins is, you know, despite this, you're still generating a ton of free cash flow. So talk a little bit about kind of capital allocation, how you guys think about using that free cash flow, whether it's buybacks, you know, from an M&A perspective, like, potentially what would make sense? That's one of the questions I get from investors. Like, great, they're generating a lot of cash, but, like, what are they doing with it? You know, maybe you haven't been as aggressive on a buyback as maybe some would have liked. Just curious how you guys think about it at the board level and yourselves on capital allocation with the cash flow. Yeah, you know, I'll start, and Keith can jump in. But, you know, obviously, strong cash, you know, strong balance sheet, you know, $230 million in cash on the balance sheet, unrestricted at 9/30. You know, we have been, we have open authorization on a share buyback, a $75 million buyback program that we've acquired, you know, through the third quarter, $31 million in stock back and opportunistic program, open market. You know, first and foremost, as Keith said, we've been investing in the business. So our first capital allocation priority during this time with the strong margins is to invest in go-to-market sales, account management, the technology initiatives, the enhanced scorecard. But we can do both 'cause we've got a strong profile and a strong balance sheet. So the first two priorities is in business, human resources, to be ready for that pent-up demand when the market will recover, and then the share buyback program. And then, you know, opportunistic if there was something that made sense for us down the road. But, you know, we also don't you know, we're core to our auto and our you know, near non-prime consumers, so it had to make sense. And but yeah, that's those are kind of the priorities. I don't know if you want to add anything. That's good. Okay. Well, we've got a couple of minutes left here. Any, any questions? Any other questions in the audience? Yeah, sure. I think you took the profit share adjustment in 2022, and you cited, you know, the used car index came down faster than you guys expected. And then, with this most recent adjustment, I think you cited higher defaults on the backlog. How much assuredness do you have that this is it in terms of major adjustments to that line? 'Cause it really does, you know, move the margins- Right ... that we're talking about here. Sure. I think they're close to about 100% margin. Yeah- Yeah, and I'll just make one point, and then, Keith. Yeah, please. It is. And I'm not trying to be cute, but it was faster than the, for that 2022 market, faster than even Manheim thought it was gonna come down. I mean, Manheim- Right ... throughout the year, was forecasting a negative 4% decrease, and then it came in on that fourth quarter at 11%. So it's a great memory. So it just, it surprised the whole industry, and, and obviously- Right ... surprised us and impacted our write-down. Is it been more in line with your expectations this year with Manheim? Absolutely. Absolutely. Absolutely. And that was Q- that was really a step change from Q3 of 2022 to Q4 of 2022, as Keith pointed out. And, you know, I think the Manheim has went down for the full year in 2022, 15%. It's never come down that, that much in one year. And, you know, the, the change from Q2 to Q3 of 2023 was really just the, the 60+ day delinquencies, which are a leading indicator to default frequency and claims. And, you know, from Q2 to Q3, we had about almost 10% in claim, increased claims just in that quarter movement. And, and that's not Open Lending. That's, that's the industry. Everyone is seeing that on, on, on used auto or, or auto in general. So, you know, we, we stress the portfolio. We've got a very talented risk team. We've got, you know, EY and KPMG. KPMG advises, EY audits, and Keith and I are very involved in the process, and it's robust. You know, we look at every quarter based on everything we know at that point in time, and it's an estimate. But feel like, you know, as I said, the opening of the meeting, you know, we've got... You know, we've booked to a 63.5% loss ratio on our last four quarters originations. If you know, that's a 20%, almost 30% stress from what the cash flow and the profit share would be if we didn't stress it. What's the backlog stress right now? You know, it varies by vintage. You know, like Q4 of 2021 and Q1 of 2022 was the peak of the Manheim. They were stressed a lot more in the, you know, during the pandemic, when the stimulus was there. Those are performing a lot better. So the portfolio in general is probably stressed. You know, it changes by vintage. It varies by vintage. All right, so I think we're out of time, so we're gonna have to wrap up there. Thanks, guys. Yep, thank you.