Slides
Page 1
Mosaic 2025 Analyst Day 1
Page 2
Forward Looking Statements This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements may include, but are not limited to, statements about share repurchases, future transactions or strategic plans and other statements about future financial and operating results. Such statements are based upon the current beliefs and expectations of The Mosaic Company’s management and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to: political and economic instability and changes in government policies in countries in which we have operations; the predictability and volatility of, and customer expectations about, agriculture, fertilizer, raw material, energy and transportation markets that are subject to competitive and other pressures and economic and credit market conditions; the level of inventories in the distribution channels for crop nutrients; the effect of future product innovations or development of new technologies on demand for our products; changes in foreign currency and exchange rates; international trade risks, including the potential imposition of U.S. tariffs on Canadian potash imports and retaliatory tariffs on phosphate exports by Canada or other countries; and other risks associated with Mosaic’s international operations; a material adverse change in our Ma'aden investment with respect to the financial position, performance, operations or prospects of Ma'aden; customer defaults; the effects of Mosaic’s decisions to exit business operations or locations; changes in government policy; changes in environmental and other governmental regulation, including expansion of the types and extent of water resources regulated under federal law, carbon taxes or other greenhouse gas regulation, implementation of numeric water quality standards for the discharge of nutrients into Florida waterways or efforts to reduce the flow of excess nutrients into the Mississippi River basin, the Gulf of America or elsewhere; further developments in judicial or administrative proceedings, or complaints that Mosaic’s operations are adversely impacting nearby farms, business operations or properties; difficulties or delays in receiving, increased costs of or challenges to necessary governmental permits or approvals or increased financial assurance requirements; resolution of global tax audit activity; the effectiveness of Mosaic’s processes for managing its strategic priorities; adverse weather conditions affecting operations in Central Florida, the Mississippi River basin, the Gulf Coast of the United States, Canada or Brazil, and including potential hurricanes, excess heat, cold, snow, rainfall or drought; actual costs of various items differing from management’s current estimates, including, among others, asset retirement, environmental remediation, reclamation or other environmental regulation, Canadian resources taxes and royalties, reduction of Mosaic’s available cash and liquidity, and increased leverage, due to its use of cash and/or available debt capacity to fund financial assurance requirements and strategic investments; brine inflows at Mosaic’s potash mines; other accidents and disruptions involving Mosaic’s operations, including potential mine fires, floods, explosions, seismic events, sinkholes or releases of hazardous or volatile chemicals; and risks associated with cyber security, including reputational loss; as well as other risks and uncertainties reported from time to time in The Mosaic Company’s reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Actual results may differ from those set forth in the forward-looking statements. 2
Page 3
Non-GAAP Financial Measures This presentation refers to certain non-GAAP financial measures, such as Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA, cash conversion cost per tonne and net debt. Generally, a non-GAAP financial measure is a supplemental numerical measure of a company's performance, financial position or cash flows that either excludes or includes amounts that are not normally excluded or included in the most directly comparable measure calculated and presented in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP. Non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered as substitutes for, or superior to, measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. In addition, because non-GAAP measures are not determined in accordance with GAAP, they are thus susceptible to varying interpretations and calculations and may not be comparable to other similarly titled measures of other companies. Adjusted metrics, including adjusted EBITDA are calculated by excluding the impact of notable items from the GAAP measure. Net debt is calculated as short-term debt plus long-term debt less cash. Management believes that these adjusted measures provide securities analysts, investors, management and others with useful supplemental information regarding our performance by excluding certain items that may not be indicative of, or are unrelated to, our core operating results. Management utilizes these adjusted measures in analyzing and assessing Mosaic’s overall performance and financial trends, for financial and operating decision-making, and to forecast and plan for future periods. These adjusted measures also assist our management in comparing our and our competitors' operating results. We are not providing forward looking guidance for U.S. GAAP reported conversion cost per tonne, or a quantitative reconciliation of forward-looking adjusted EBITDA because we are unable to predict with reasonable certainty our notable items without unreasonable effort. Historically, our notable items have included, but are not limited to, foreign currency transaction gain or loss, unrealized gain or loss on derivatives, acquisition-related fees, discrete tax items, contingencies and certain other gains or losses. These items are uncertain, depend on various factors, and could have a material impact on U.S. GAAP reported results for the guidance period. 3
Page 4
Bruce Bodine, President & CEO 4
Page 5
Competitive potash assets with excess capacity Large scale phosphate production assets in North America and Brazil Leading presence in the top agricultural markets Expansive product distribution network Customer trust based on brand and reputation Mosaic has Three Separate but Interdependent Businesses 5 MicroEssentials® Aspire® Mosaic Biosciences COMMODITY PRODUCTION MARKET ACCESS AG TECHNOLOGY
Page 6
Mosaic’s Value Creation Engine 6 Constructive Macro Tailwinds Leverage Market Access Redefine Growth Reallocate Capital Normalize Production and Costs
Page 7
Mosaic’s Value Creation Engine 7 Constructive Macro Tailwinds Leverage Market Access Redefine Growth Reallocate Capital Normalize Production and Costs Positive Megatrends Supply Constraints
Page 8
Mosaic’s Value Creation Engine – Short Term 8 Constructive Macro Tailwinds Leverage Market Access Redefine Growth Reallocate Capital Normalize Production and Costs Improved Reliability Cost Discipline
Page 9
Mosaic’s Value Creation Engine – Medium Term 9 Constructive Macro Tailwinds Leverage Market Access Redefine Growth Reallocate Capital Normalize Production and Costs Portfolio Review Cash Return Focus
Page 10
Mosaic’sValue Creation Engine – Long Term 10 Constructive Macro Tailwinds Leverage Market Access Redefine Growth Reallocate Capital Normalize Production and Costs New Markets New Products New Sources
Page 11
Mosaic’s Value Creation Engine 11 Constructive Macro Tailwinds Leverage Market Access Redefine Growth Reallocate Capital Normalize Production and Costs
Page 12
12 Opening Bruce Bodine Mosaic’s Value Creation Engine Constructive Macro Tailwinds Jenny Wang/Andy Jung Leverage Market Access Jenny Wang Normalize Production & Costs Karen Swager/Luciano Siani Pires Redefine Growth Jenny Wang/Floris Bielders Reallocate Capital & Financial Strategy Luciano Siani Pires Closing Bruce Bodine Agenda
Page 13
13 Agenda Constructive Macro Tailwinds Jenny Wang/Andy Jung Leverage Market Access Jenny Wang Redefine Growth Jenny Wang/Floris Bielders Normalize Production & Costs Karen Swager/Luciano Siani Pires Reallocate Capital & Financial Strategy Luciano Siani Pires Closing Bruce Bodine Opening Bruce Bodine
Page 14
14 Macro Trends Provide a Favorable Backdrop for Mosaic GROWING GRAIN SUPPLY AND DEMAND GAP ACCELERATED YIELD GROWTH NEEDED RISING P & K DEMAND INCREASING DEMANDS ON P FOR NON-FERTILIZER USES TIGHTER & DURABLE PHOSPHATE S&D POPULATION GROWTH & FOOD SECURITY BIOFUELS ADOPTION LIMITED ARABLE ACRES
Page 15
15 Mosaic baseline demand/production and assuming flat harvested area from 2024-2030. Source: UN FAOSTAT, World Population Prospects 2024, Mosaic The Food (and Fuel) Story Continues to Provide a Constructive Backdrop for the Agriculture and Fertilizer Industries EXPECTED TO FALL (2024-2030) Per capita arable land In order to meet expected demand growth, global yields will need to resume the earlier trends and achieve a CAGR of ~1.2%+ between 2024-30 400M people between 2024 and 2030 Global population growth expected at 0.8% CAGR or 8-10% (2024-2030) Grain and oilseed demand expected to climb World grain and oilseed yields GREW 1.7% CAGR between 2000-2016, but only 0.4% 2016-24
Page 16
Biodiesel blending to reach Renewable energy E20 blend by 2025 5% Biodiesel blend to Trending to year-round E15 expand SAF and renewable diesel Biofuel Demand and Production are Expected to Accelerate 16 Notes: IEA Range: Main Case (effectively status quo of existing and firm policies) to Accelerated Scenario (inclusive of planned policies and pledges). “E” refers to Ethanol; Blend rates refer to the percentage of ethanol in gasoline blends and percentage of biodies el/renewable diesel in diesel fuel blend. “SAF” refers to Sustainable Aviation Fuel. Source: IEA, Mosaic 20% by 2030 32% by 2030 14% for transport sector, includes 5% biojet fuel planning 50% in 2028 40% by 2025 North AmericaIndonesiaIndiaEuropeBrazil biodiesel blending by 2030 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2010 2015 2020 2025F 2030F Billion gallon Global Biofuels Production IEA Range* MOS Baseline % = Global biofuels as % of transport energy 4.5% 6.3% 5.2% 4.1%
Page 17
3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 2024 Feed Food + Other Biofuels 2030F World Grain and Oilseed Use Feed Food+Other Biofuels (MOS baseline) Biofuels (IEA Accel) Billion tonnes 17 Expected Grain and Oilseed Demand Growth from 2024 to 2030 Source: IEA, USDA, FAO, Mosaic +8-10% '24-30Highly Probable
Page 18
Phosphate and Potash Demand Necessary to Achieve Yield Growth, Though Phosphate Demand Likely to be Constrained by Supply Availability 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 2010 2015 2020 2025F 2030F Million tonnes World Phosphate Demand 18 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 2010 2015 2020 2025F 2030F Million tonnes World Potash Demand +6.6M '24-30 +9.5M '24-30 Source: IFA, CRU, Mosaic CAGR ‘24-’30 = 1.4% CAGR ‘24-’30 = 2%
Page 19
19 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Million tonnes China LFP production Growth and ranges represent 2030 global forecasts EV = Battery electric vehicles (BEV)+Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) LFP = LFP + LMFP cathode active materials (CAM) Source: Baichun, Mosaic Global Energy Transition Expected to Limit Phosphate Fertilizer Supply Greater lithium iron phosphate (LFP) production for electric vehicles (EV) and energy storage systems (ESS) expected Global EV Sales Penetration in 2030 35-45% (20% today) Global ESS Demand Growth to 2030 >5x 2030 LFP Share of Global Battery Chemistry Mix 45-55% (42% today) LFP Production Lowers Fertilizer Production ~1:1
Page 20
20 10.3 7.9 7.3 5.5 Average 2015-20 2023 2024 Higher P2O5 Supply Domestic Ag Demand Growth Industrial Demand Pull 2030F 1 DAP, MAP and TSP Source: China Customs, Mosaic -1.8 MMT China Phosphate Exports Expected to Decrease through 2030 China Phosphate1 Exports Million tonnes This drop is on top of ~3M tonne drop from historical norms already seen
Page 21
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 2010 2015 2020 2025F 2030F Million tonnes World Phosphate Supply and Trend Demand 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 2010 2015 2020 2025F 2030F Million tonnes World Potash Supply and Trend Demand Trend Demand = ~2.5% per annum Phosphate and Potash Supply Expected to be Hard-Pressed to Catch Up to Trend Demand, Even Assuming Demand Growth to 2030 is Below Historic Trend 21Source: IFA, CRU, Mosaic Trend Demand = ~2% per annum 2021 2024 2021 2024 Pronounced Demand Destruction due to Reduced Supply Pronounced Demand Destruction due to Reduced Supply Supply Supply Supply Constraints Supply Constraints
Page 22
Normalize Production & Costs Karen Swager/Luciano Siani Pires Agenda 22 Leverage Market Access Jenny Wang Redefine Growth Jenny Wang/Floris Bielders Reallocate Capital & Financial Strategy Luciano Siani Pires Closing Bruce Bodine Opening Bruce Bodine Constructive Macro Tailwinds Jenny Wang/Andy Jung
Page 23
7 5 3 7 5 10 9 7 23 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025E Working through backlog Number of turnarounds Sulfuric Acid Turnarounds are Essential to Phosphate Production Reliability All sulfuric acid plants are now back into the normal 3-year interval between turnarounds
Page 24
¹ Summation of the four quarters falls out of the 7.2-7.6 million production volume guidance range due to production variability being greater within a specific quarter. ² Q1 2025 sales guidance is in line with production forecast. Louisiana 24 Q4 2024 ~1.5² 1.7 – 2.0 1.9 – 2.2 1.8 – 2.1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 2025 Asset Health Mosaic is Investing $100 Million to Enhance Asset Reliability Riverview New Wales Bartow Production reliability By Q2 2025, we expect most accelerated reliability projects will be completed and Mosaic should resume production volumes close to capacity Phosphate Production Forecast¹ Million tonnes Asset Health target = 85-95% based on turnaround timing
Page 25
Normalizing Phosphate Production Will Result in Lower Cash Conversion Cost per Tonne 2023 2024 2025E 2027E Production Volume Million tonnes 105 106 95-100 90-95 Cash Conversion Cost¹ $/tonne 6.6 7.2-7.6 7.8-8.2 6.3 -7% 25 700k loss from unusual events ¹ Please see appendix for non-GAAP metric definitions
Page 26
65 65 59-64 57-62 7 5 5 5 26 Hydrofloat Will Increase Potash Production and Lower Potash Cash Production Cost 7.8 8.3 8.9-9.1 9.0-9.2 ¹ MOP production excluding KMAG ² Please see appendix for non-GAAP metric definitions +8% 2023 2024 2025E 2027E Production Volume¹ Million tonnes Potash Cash Production Cost² $/tonne 250k loss from unusual events Royalties per tonnePotash Cash Production Cost per tonne excluding royalties -3% 72 70 64-69 62-67
Page 27
27 Compaction Boosted Product Mix, Driving Significant Margin Improvement 1.1 1.1 1.2 – 1.4 1.2 – 1.4 5.3 5.7 6.5 – 6.7 6.7 – 6.9 1.4 1.5 1.1 – 1.3 1.0 – 1.2 2023 2024 2025E 2027E Potash production by grade Million tonnes Compaction Project Industrial Granular Standard Completed in 2024 Added 500k tonnes of compaction capacity Margin enhancement • Granular and industrial products offer an average $20-$30/tonne margin differential over standard products Compaction Project
Page 28
122 109 85-90 85-90 257 180 180-185 180-185 Mosaic Fertilizantes Operating Efficiency Initiatives are Driving Costs Down Blended rock cost realized in cost of goods sold Potash cash production cost¹ Phosphate cash conversion cost¹ Mosaic Fertilizantes cost per tonne in US$ 106 75-80 92 28 Key Initiatives Mine plan optimization Labor efficiency Raw material usage factors Process streamlining -20%-15% ¹ Please see appendix for non-GAAP metric definitions 2023 2024 2025E 2027E 75-80 -30%
Page 29
Examples of future value capture opportunities Sales and operations planning Inventory positioning optimization Real-time “available-to-sell” inventory enabling opportunistic sales Dynamic pricing Margin optimization Transactional core without human intervention Intra-day adjustment of operations plan Prioritization of maintenance interventions based on sensor data Mosaic Implemented an Ambitious Global Digital Acceleration Program with Expectation of $70+ Million Adjusted EBITDA Improvement $300M Investment in state-of-the-art platforms Value capture expected to start in 2H 2025 Employee and contractor efficiency Embedded analytics Lower working capital requirements 29 SAP S4/HANA o9 Supply Chain Salesforce Artificial Intelligence Enterprise Process and Data Reengineering
Page 30
30 Hydrofloat and Compaction Production and Cost Improvements Can Lead to $650+ Million Adjusted EBITDA Uplift by 2027 2027 Adjusted EBITDA Impact¹ US$ in millions Value Capture Timeline Phosphate Production Ramp-up Run-rate achieved in 2H 2025 Digital Enabled Savings 2025-2026Mosaic Fertilizantes Efficiency Gain Run-rate achieved in 2025 Full benefit in 2026 Go-Live in 2024 Benefits realized in 2025-2026 $400 - $500 $50 - $75 $50 - $100 $50 - $100 ¹ Adjusted EBITDA impact assuming flat potash prices and phosphate stripping margins from 2024 Significant benefits will be demonstrated in 2025
Page 31
Question and Answer 31
Page 32
Mosaic 2025 Analyst Day 32
Page 33
Leverage Market Access Jenny Wang Normalize Production & Costs Karen Swager/Luciano Siani Pires Constructive Macro Tailwinds Jenny Wang/Andy Jung Agenda 33 Redefine Growth Jenny Wang/Floris Bielders Reallocate Capital & Financial Strategy Luciano Siani Pires Closing Bruce Bodine Opening Bruce Bodine
Page 34
MicroEssentials 75M acres 34 Market Access isa Unique Strategic Advantage for Mosaic Mosaic Biosciences 9M acres 290M+ acres All Mosaic Products We've Earned the Right to Win A reliable provider with expansive supply chain network Recognition as an expert and thought leader Innovation that supports a solid portfolio of high-quality products Meeting customers where they already are ®
Page 35
North America Market Access Underscores our Scale, Supply Chain Footprint and Customer Relationships Scale and Leadership 45-50% market share in phosphate 30-35% market share in potash Expansive Supply Chain Network Over 100 Mosaic controlled warehouses Over 400 exclusive space agreements Strong Brand Value & Customer Loyalty Ranked #1 in earned media MicroEssentials® is the most recognizable brand ~90% repeat customers Market Intelligence Inventory positioning to maximize netbacks 35Source: Mosaic estimates
Page 36
1.9 2.2 - 2.4 2.3 - 2.5 ~1.0 2024 2027E 2030E Performance Product Growth in North America will be a Source of Margin Expansion 24% 27% 40% Most performance product sales are MicroEssentials®, which exceeds commodity margins by $30-$40 per tonne Expect future performance products to generate similar margin premium ~$100 million adjusted EBITDA¹ uplift by 2030 36 Performance products Opportunity for future performance products North America Performance Product (P+K) Sales² Million tonnes % of North America Phosphate and Potash sales ¹ Adjusted EBITDA impact assuming flat potash prices and phosphate stripping margins from 2024 ² Performance products include Aspire®, MicroEssentials®, and other future performance products.
Page 37
37 Long In-Country Operating History and Solid Execution Differentiate Us in Brazil In-country logistics advantage ~$50/tonne netback improvement 20 blending facilities, two ports Exceptional customer trust Direct to farmer access #1 earned media More than 2,600 customers Solid local operating experience and execution 20+ years local operating experience and business best practices Significant outperformance compared to peers Source: Mosaic estimates
Page 38
38Mosaic Market Share = Mosaic Distribution Sales / Total Market Size Our Brazil Distribution Model Enables Us to Outpace Market Growth 46 50 - 52 53 - 55 Mosaic Fertilizantes Third-Party Sales Million tonnes 7.7 11 - 12 Brazil NPK Market Million tonnes 2024 2027E 2030E 23%16% 24% 1.0 1.8 – 2.1 2.5 – 2.7 2.8% CAGR 2024 2027E 2030E Mosaic market share 12.5 – 13.5 11.2% CAGR Brazil distribution business has consistently yielded $30-$40 margin per tonne Upside from potential introduction of other performance products $100 to $150 million adjusted EBITDA¹ uplift by 2030 Performance product sales ¹Adjusted EBITDA impact assuming flat potash prices and phosphate stripping margins from 2024
Page 39
North America Brazil 1.4 2.6 – 3.0 3.4 – 3.8 2024 2027E 2030E India and China total sales Million tonnes Distribution Model in China and India to Drive Targeted Growth Targeted growth • Potash and performance products expansion • Fertilizers provide “real estate” for Mosaic Biosciences products Substantial in-country access to reach retailers and growers Solid customer relationships and leading brand result in consistent margins of ~$35 per tonne $60 to $80 million adjusted EBITDA¹ uplift by 2030 39¹Adjusted EBITDA impact assuming flat potash prices and phosphate stripping margins from 2024
Page 40
40 Market Access Targets ~$300 Million Adjusted EBITDA Uplift by 2030 2030 Adjusted EBITDA¹ Impact US$ million Growth drivers New performance products launch Potash value-added growth Biologicals on fertilizers MicroEssentials® expansion Volume growth acceleration in 2026 with completion of Palmeirante project ~$100 $100 - $150 $60 - $80 Expect market access to become a major growth engine North America Brazil China and India Further capital-light growth opportunities Mosaic will explore opportunities to increase product and geography scope to leverage market access model ¹Adjusted EBITDA impact assuming flat potash prices and phosphate stripping margins from 2024
Page 41
Redefine Growth Jenny Wang/Floris Bielders Leverage Market Access Jenny Wang Agenda 41 Constructive Macro Tailwinds Jenny Wang/Andy Jung Reallocate Capital & Financial Strategy Luciano Siani Pires Normalize Production & Costs Karen Swager/Luciano Siani Pires Closing Bruce Bodine Opening Bruce Bodine
Page 42
42
Page 43
What makes biosciences an attractive field? Why is Mosaic Biosciences so well positioned to succeed in this space? 43 Fast growing market ~$10B¹ in 2023 to $25-30B¹ by 2030 Significant upside ~80% of farmers not yet using biologicals High gross margins 30% to 60% Potential to combine fertilizer & biosciences Global market access Including boots on the ground & blending facilities in Brazil and China Fragmented market – no clear market leaders Low CAPEX requirements Market is receptive to new technologies Biologicals address key farmer challenges Strong brand reputation, awareness & trust Unparallelled expertise in crop nutrition and fertility Legacy of commercializing innovation Mosaic recognized in the market for bringing innovative, science-backed and value-added products (e.g., MicroEssentials®) Supply reliability Customers looking for reliable suppliers of biologicals Deployment in own operations Fertilizer manufacturing by-products (gypsum, pond water, etc.) present an opportunity to use bio- remediation technology Biosciences is an Attractive Avenue for Future Growth ¹ Market size includes all biosciences areas. Source: Mosaic’s estimates
Page 44
We Have Made Significant Progress and See Promising Future Opportunities Launched in Brazil, India, China, North America Dual focus: Customer-based products and bioremediation Reached 9 million acres globally in 2024 Built strong product R&D capabilities and invested in external R&D Launched digital grower engagement programs Frontier Fields, TruResponse and Ag College® online Accomplishments Looking ahead Aim to launch 5 products in 2025 Expect Mosaic Biosciences to be profitable by Q4 2025 44
Page 45
Recover nutrients from phosphate by-products, while reducing operational waste management costs Leverage Biosciences technologies to monetize the phosphorus, nitrogen & sulfur trapped in gypsum stacks and pond water ~10% CAGR to ~$10B by 2030¹ Our Focus Areas Leverage Mosaic’s Strategic Strengths in Crop Nutrition ¹ Market size includes bio-crop nutrition and bio crop stimulants only. Source: The Context Network and Mosaic estimates Bio crop nutrition Supply biological nutrients or improve their availability. Activate plant responses, improving resilience to stress and enhancing crop quality. Potential Use Case: Sulfur extraction in gypsum stacks Our focus areas Market size/ growth rate Unmatched crop nutrition expertise Natural extension of our core business Solving growers’ biggest challenges Strong Mosaic brand reputation, market access & customer relationships Mosaic strategic advantage Bio crop stimulants Bioremediation 45
Page 46
Biological fertilizer complement formulated with proven strains of PGPR—plant growth promoting rhizobacteria. Increases nutrient availability, uptake, and utilization Improves early-season plant growth and vigor Optimizes yield potential Flexible and easy application • tank-mix compatible with most crop protectants • can be incorporated into bulk liquid fertilizer No special storage conditions – 24-month shelf life in concentrate, 18 months in most liquid fertilizer Attractive margins for retailer The select strains of bacillus produce organic acids and enzymes that improve the solubilization of dry fertilizer into plant- available forms Compatible with a broad range of dry fertilizers such as MicroEssentials®, MAP, DAP, urea, potash and complete blends Ease of application with an effective rate of bacteria on impregnated fertilizer No special storage conditions – 24-month shelf life in concentrate,18 months on most dry fertilizer Mosaic Successfully Launched Two Flagship Products 46
Page 47
Compatible with numerous seed treatments, pesticides and coating formulations Shelf-stable for long-term storage in-can and on-seed Capable of N-fixation (i.e., not ‘just’ a nutrient-use-efficiency technology) Gene edited nitrogen fixation live microbial Why Nitrogen Fixation Represents a Sizable Market 47 Target Launch Date 2026 / 27 3 billion acres¹ global addressable market Key Differentiator Next Steps Seed treatment application provides the crop with nutrients beyond the standard application windows Obtain necessary regulatory approvals Large scale production ¹Source: Mosaic’s estimates
Page 48
Why Unique strains not found in competitor products >100,000 bacterial strains screened to find the most potent from diverse soil environments from all 50 U.S. states Key Differentiator 2.7 billion acres¹ global addressable market Next Steps The PSB microbial inoculant adds value by increasing the availability of fertilizer and soil-bound phosphorus to the crop for higher productivity Field testing on corn in North America (>2% yield increase) and soybean in Brazil in 2024 & 2025 Specialized formulation development for strain stability and season-long persistence Target Launch Date 2027 / 28 Dual use: in premium fertilizer on low grade rock Phosphate Solubilizing Bacteria Shows Great Potential 48¹Source: Mosaic’s estimates
Page 49
49 Mosaic Biosciences is Accelerating with Potential for $200 Million of Adjusted EBITDA in 2030 Long-term Aspiration $250-$500 million adjusted EBITDA 2025 ~$70 million revenue 2026 12 launched products to date 2030 ~$200 million adjusted EBITDA 2024 9 million acres
Page 50
Question and Answer 50
Page 51
Reallocate Capital & Financial Strategy Luciano Siani Pires Closing Bruce Bodine Agenda 51 Constructive Macro Tailwinds Jenny Wang/Andy Jung Normalize Production & Costs Karen Swager/Luciano Siani Pires Opening Bruce Bodine Leverage Market Access Jenny Wang Redefine Growth Jenny Wang/Floris Bielders
Page 52
Financial Strategy Components 52 Balance sheet Return on capital employed Capital allocation and shareholder returns Maintain investment grade credit rating Ability to service debt at the trough of market cycles Flex short-term debt according to working capital needs Capital reallocation away from low-returning assets Declining sustaining capex over time – target below $850M in 2030 Improve adjusted EBITDA to cash conversion High-return, capital light growth ($100-$200M per year) No significant M&A in sight Maintain a healthy minimum through-cycle dividend Committed to returning excess cash to shareholders Share buybacks vs. special dividends considering valuations and market cycles Current assessment Where Mosaic wants to be
Page 53
Mosaic is Committed to Retaining its Investment Grade Credit Rating 53 Working capital is largely funded with short-term credit facilities and commercial paper Leverage metrics at year-end 2024 were consistent with BBB/Baa2 credit ratings Leverage will fluctuate with market cycles; the capital structure is managed to ensure we retain our credit rating through the cycle 3.4 4.0 0.8 Long- term debt Short- term debt 0.3 Cash Net debt 1.8x Net debt / adjusted EBITDA1 Interest coverage 9.0x Please see appendix for non-GAAP metric definitions ¹ Net debt / adjusted EBITDA is calculated as net debt of $4B divided by 2024 adjusted EBITDA of $2.2B. ² Metrics calculated using values at year-end 2024. Net debt at YE 2024 US$ billion 25% Debt to capitalization Next bond maturity $700M due November 2027 Fluctuates with seasonality Key indebtedness metrics²
Page 54
Reallocate capital Commodity phosphate product and non-core assets Capital employed ~33% of total NPV ~20% of total Invest in strengths Tier 1 potash assets, performance products and wholesale market access Capital employed ~55% of total NPV ~95% of total Capital Reallocation is Key to Healthy Returns on Capital Employed 54 Capital Employed = Total Assets less Current Liabilities Net present value (NPV) = unlevered, after-tax cash flows years 2025-2029, discounted at Mosaic WACC ¹ Ma’aden investment is included in Corporate and Other Corporate and Other¹ Capital employed ~12% of total NPV ~ -15% of total
Page 55
We Are Pursuing $2 - $3 Billion of Reallocation Opportunities Sell or bring investor to develop niobium; process to start in Q2 2025 Strategic alternatives being assessed ~111 million Ma’aden shares² with a clear path to monetization Assessing monetization and/or investor interest; timeline 2025-2028 MicroEssentials® in Uberaba, MicroEssentials® Pro, biologicals on fertilizer Sold for $160 million in 2023 Indications of value received $125 million sale expected to close in 2025 Optimize long term value of our reserves Proceeds/Value Potential Araxa / Patrocinio Taquari Ma’aden shares Excess land holdings Upgrade product mix¹ Streamsong Carlsbad Patos de Minas Value over volume¹ Strategy 55 ¹ Value creation from upgraded product mix and long-term optimization is not included in the size of the opportunities. ² Mosaic’s ownership of Ma’aden shares was valued at ~$1.3 billion based on closing price on March 10, 2025.
Page 56
56 $100M - $175M $75M - $125M 2024 Adjusted EBITDA¹ Normalize Production and Cost Leverage Market Access Redefine Growth $3.0B - $3.2B 2030 Adjusted EBITDA $2.2B $650M - $800M $250M - $330M $150M - $250M $3.3B - $3.5B +55% Our Path to Improving Adjusted EBITDA by ~55% in 5 years Improvement in adjusted EBITDA is largely independent of fertilizer prices No major investments required Captured by 2026 Captured by 2030 $600M - $650M ¹ Please see appendix for non-GAAP metric definitions and reconciliations. ASSUME FLAT 2024 PRICES
Page 57
Significant 5-year Adjusted EBITDA Expansion in a Range of Market Scenarios 2030 Adjusted EBITDA scenarios ($ billions) Only considers Adjusted EBITDA impact to North America phosphate and potash businesses, assumes a 30% Canadian resource tax impact to potash price changes Asset sales may have a negative $100 million impact on Adjusted EBITDA (not included in the table) MOP Price FOB Mine ($/mt) Phosphate benchmark stripping margin ($/mt) $2.7 - $2.9 $3.3 - $3.5 $3.8 - $4.0 $2.9 - $3.1 $3.0 - $3.2 $3.1 - $3.3 $3.4 - $3.6 $3.5 - $3.7 $3.7 - $3.9 $195 $220 $245 $425 $375 $475 Scenarios selected for discussion in next slide Low Medium High 57
Page 58
Adjusted EBITDA Expansion and Capital Reallocation will Generate Robust Allocable Cash Flow $2 – 3B Capital reallocation potential proceeds 1 Free cash flow (FCF) defined as Operating Cash Flow less Investing Activities. Cumulative FCF is negatively impacted by ~$450m working capital build-up to support distribution and biosciences growth. US$ billionUS$ billion 58 Adjusted EBITDA scenarios 2025 – 2030 Cumulative free cash flow1 Low $3.5 – $3.7 Medium $6.8 – $7.0 High $10.1 – $10.3 2025 – 2030 Cash to be allocated $5.5 - $6.7 $8.8 - $10 $12.1 - $13.3 Compelling investment case for Mosaic shares at current valuation.
Page 59
Closing Bruce Bodine Reallocate Capital & Financial Strategy Luciano Siani Pires Agenda 59 Constructive Macro Tailwinds Jenny Wang/Andy Jung Normalize Production & Costs Karen Swager/Luciano Siani Pires Opening Bruce Bodine Leverage Market Access Jenny Wang Redefine Growth Jenny Wang/Floris Bielders
Page 60
Mosaic’s Engine of Value Creation 60 Constructive Macro Tailwinds Leverage Market Access Redefine Growth Reallocate Capital Normalize Production and Costs
Page 61
Question and Answer 61
Page 62
Appendix 62
Page 63
Non-GAAP Financial Measures Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA is defined as Consolidated Net Income (loss) before net interest expense, depreciation, depletion and amortization, asset retirement obligation accretion, share-based compensation expense and provision for (benefit from) income taxes less equity in net earnings (loss) of nonconsolidated companies, net of dividends. Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP financial measure that we provide to assist securities analysts, investors, lenders and other in their comparison of operational performance, valuation and debt capacity across companies with differing capital, tax and legal structures. Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA should not be considered as an alternative to, or more meaningful than, Consolidated Net Income (Loss) as a measure of operating performance. A reconciliation of Consolidate Net Income (Loss) to Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA is provided below. 63 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA 2024 Consolidated net earnings attributable to Mosaic $175 Less: Consolidated interest expense, net (183) Plus: Consolidated depreciation, depletion and amortization 1,025 Plus: Accretion expense 112 Plus: Share-based compensation expense 33 Plus: Consolidated provision for income taxes 187 Less: Equity in net earnings of nonconsolidated companies, net of dividends 58 Plus: Notable items not included above 545 Adjusted EBITDA $2,202
Page 64
Non-GAAP Financial Measures Phosphate cash costs of conversion per production tonne Total production costs plus COGS functional support costs, less depreciation, ARO costs including accretion, idle expenses and turnaround costs divided by metric tonnes of finished phosphate production in the period. MOP cash cost of production per production tonne MOP cash costs of production are reflective of actual costs during the period plus COGS functional support costs, less depreciation, depletion, accretion, carbon-based and Canadian resource tax, idle expenses and turnaround costs. Total production costs for MOP production excludes K-Mag costs, Aspire raw material costs and incremental Aspire operating costs. Mosaic Fertilizantes: Phosphates cash cost of conversion per production tonne Total production costs less depreciation, ARO costs including accretion, idle expenses and turnaround costs, divided by production volume. Mosaic Fertilizantes: Potash cash cost of production per production tonne Total production costs less depreciation, ARO costs including accretion, idle expenses and turnaround costs, divided by production volume in the period. Net Debt Net debt is calculated as short-term debt plus long-term debt less cash. 64
Page 65
Thank You 65