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The Mosaic Company 1 May 6, 2025 First Quarter 2025 Results
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Forward Looking Statements & Non-GAAP Financial Measures This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements may include, but are not limited to, statements about share repurchases, future transactions or strategic plans and other statements about future financial and operating results. Such statements are based upon the current beliefs and expectations of The Mosaic Company’s management and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to: political and economic instability and changes in government policies in countries in which we have operations; the predictability and volatility of, and customer expectations about, agriculture, fertilizer, raw material, energy and transportation markets that are subject to competitive and other pressures and economic and credit market conditions; the level of inventories in the distribution channels for crop nutrients; the effect of future product innovations or development of new technologies on demand for our products; changes in foreign currency and exchange rates; international trade risks, including the impact of U.S. tariffs and retaliatory tariffs on economic conditions ; and other risks associated with Mosaic’s international operations; a material adverse change in our Ma'aden investment with respect to the financial position, performance, operations or prospects of Ma'aden; customer defaults; the effects of Mosaic’s decisions to exit business operations or locations; changes in government policy; changes in environmental and other governmental regulation, including expansion of the types and extent of water resources regulated under federal law, carbon taxes or other greenhouse gas regulation, implementation of numeric water quality standards for the discharge of nutrients into Florida waterways or efforts to reduce the flow of excess nutrients into the Mississippi River basin, the Gulf of America or elsewhere; further developments in judicial or administrative proceedings, or complaints that Mosaic’s operations are adversely impacting nearby farms, business operations or properties; difficulties or delays in receiving, increased costs of or challenges to necessary governmental permits or approvals or increased financial assurance requirements; resolution of global tax audit activity; the effectiveness of Mosaic’s processes for managing its strategic priorities; adverse weather conditions affecting operations in Central Florida, the Mississippi River basin, the Gulf Coast of the United States, Canada or Brazil, and including potential hurricanes, excess heat, cold, snow, rainfall or drought; actual costs of various items differing from management’s current estimates, including, among others, asset retirement, environmental remediation, reclamation or other environmental regulation, Canadian resources taxes and royalties, reduction of Mosaic’s available cash and liquidity, and increased leverage, due to its use of cash and/or available debt capacity to fund financial assurance requirements and st rategic investments; brine inflows at Mosaic’s potash mines; other accidents and disruptions involving Mosaic’s operations, including potential mine fires, floods, explosions, seismic events, sinkholes or releases of hazardous or volatile chemicals; and risks associated with cyber security, including reputational loss; as well as other risks and uncertainties reported from time to time in The Mosaic Company’s reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Actual results may differ from those set forth in the forward-looking statements. This presentation includes the presentation and discussion of non-GAAP diluted net earnings per share, or adjusted EPS, non-GAAP gross margin per tonne, or adjusted gross margin per tonne, non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA, non-GAAP cash cost of conversion or production per tonne, or non-GAAP adjusted effective tax rate, collectively referred to as non-GAAP financial measures. Generally, a non-GAAP financial measure is a supplemental numerical measure of a company's performance, financial position or cash flows that either excludes or includes amounts that are not normally excluded or included in the most directly comparable measure calculated and presented in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP. Non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered as substitutes for, or superior to, measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. In addition, because non-GAAP measures are not determined in accordance with GAAP, they are thus susceptible to varying interpretations and calculations and may not be comparable to other similarly titled measures of other companies. Adjusted metrics, including adjusted EPS, adjusted gross margin, and adjusted EBITDA are calculated by excluding the impact of notable items from the GAAP measure. Notable items impact on gross margin and EBITDA is pretax. Notable items impact on diluted net earnings per share is calculated as the notable item amount plus income tax effect, based on expected annual effective tax rate, divided by diluted weighted average shares. Management believes that these adjusted measures provide securities analysts, investors, management and others with useful supplemental information regarding our performance by excluding certain items that may not be indicative of, or are unrelated to, our core operating results. Management utilizes these adjusted measures in analyzing and assessing Mosaic’s overall performance and financial trends, for financial and operating decision-making, and to forecast and plan for future periods. These adjusted measures also assist our management in comparing our and our competitors' operating results. We are not providing forward looking guidance for U.S. GAAP reported diluted net earnings per share, gross margin per tonne, or a quantitative reconciliation of forward-looking adjusted EPS, adjusted gross margin and adjusted EBITDA because we are unable to predict with reasonable certainty our notable items without unreasonable effort. Historically, our notable items have included, but are not limited to, foreign currency transaction gain or loss, unrealized gain or loss on derivatives and equity securities, acquisition-related fees, discrete tax items, contingencies and certain other gains or losses. These items are uncertain, depend on various factors, and could have a material impact on U.S. GAAP reported results for the guidance period. Reconciliations for Non-GAAP financial measures contained in this press release are found below. Reconciliations for current and historical periods beginning with the quarter ended June 30, 2023 for consolidated adjusted EPS and adjusted EBITDA, as well as segment adjusted EBITDA and adjusted gross margin per tonne are provided in the Selected Calendar Quarter Financial Information performance data for the related periods. This information is being furnished under Exhibit 99.2 of the Form 8-K and available on our website at www.mosaicco.com in the “Financial Information - Quarterly Earnings” section under the “Investors” tab
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First Quarter 2025 Performance $2,621M $339M $238M $544M PHOSPHATE POTASH MOSAIC FERTILIZANTES Net Operating Adjusted(1) Revenues Earnings EBITDA Net Operating Adjusted(1) Revenues Earnings EBITDA Net Operating Adjusted(1) Revenues Earnings EBITDA ADJUSTED (1) EBITDA NET INCOME OPERATING EARNINGS CONSOLIDATED REVENUES $1,099M $139M $570M$276M $157M $240M $934M $98M $122M (1) See Non-GAAP Financial Measures for additional information
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REDEFINE GROWTH Mosaic Biosciences first quarter revenue > doubled and on track to achieve 2025 targets. Frontier Fields series (Season 1) received a top national award at the National Agri-Marketing Association (NAMA) Awards Launched Neptunion in China in late April. Registrations are in progress in Brazil and India. LEVERAGE MARKET ACCESS NORMALIZE PRODUCTION AND COSTS Business Highlights 4 Increase potash production volume guidance, driven by strong prices and international demand 2025 Mosaic Fertizantes sales volume outlook of 10.0M to 10.8M tonnes represents ~15% growth from prior year, driven by improving market conditions and upcoming Palmeirante completion REALLOCATE CAPITAL Actively engaging investors to discuss strategic alternatives for Carlsbad and Taquari. Launched a dual-track process to either: Sell its Patrocinio mine and Araxa mine and beneficiation facilities, or Attract capital to develop Niobium processing at the Araxa beneficiation plant. March was one of the highest phosphate production months in the past 18 months Second best Mosaic Fertilizantes first quarter ever, driven by cost reductions Expect significant sequential growth in Mosaic Fertilizantes EBITDA in the second quarter Constructive Macro Tailwinds
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Louisiana 5 Q4 2024 Q2 2025 Asset Health Phosphate Asset Reliability Update Riverview New Wales Bartow Production reliability Asset Health target = 85-95% based on turnaround timing Q1 2025 Turnaround in Q2 2025. Expect to operate at target rates at the end of Q2. Completed turnaround in Q1. Asset reliability at high end of expected range due to recency of turnarounds. High run rates post- turnaround. Completed turnaround in early Q2. Additional reliability projects being executed in Q2. Expect to operate at target rates at beginning of Q3. Turnaround in Q2 2025. Expect to operate at target rates at beginning of Q3.
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2.0 1.42 1.58 1.57 Phosphate Production and Cost Progress Q1 2024 Q4 2024 Q1 2025 Target Range Production Volume Million tonnes 110 118 134 95-100* Cash Cost of Conversion¹ $/tonne 6 ¹ Please see appendix for non-GAAP metric definitions *Target by end of 2025 Low Q1 2025 volumes due to substantial downtime. Higher spending on asset reliability work and lower volumes resulted in higher cash cost of conversion per tonne in the period. Remain on track to reach production rates and cash cost of conversion targets.
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Potash Production and Cost Progress Q1 2024 Q4 2024 Q1 2025 Target Range Production Volume Million tonnes 72 73 78 64-69 Cash Cost of Production¹ $/tonne 7 ¹ Please see appendix for non-GAAP metric definitions 2.25-2.35 2.26 2.33 2.34 Slightly lower Q1 2025 volumes in response to weather related challenges. Higher maintenance spend and lower fixed cost absorption resulted in higher unit cost. Raised full year 2025 production volume guidance to 9.0-9.4 million tonnes. Cash Cost of Production per tonne remains on track to reach 2025 target, benefitting from Hydrofloat later this year.
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Mosaic Fertilizantes Cost Progress Q1 2024 Q4 2024 Q1 2025 Target Range Phosphate Cash Cost of Conversion¹ $/tonne 115 109 97 85-90 Phosphate Blended Rock Cost $/tonne 6.6 6.3 8 ¹ Please see appendix for non-GAAP metric definitions 1.4 75-80 87 85 101 196 151 187 180-185 Potash Cash Cost of Production¹ $/tonne Significant year-over-year decline of all unit cost metrics in Q1 2025 due to efficiency gains Remain on track to reach 2025 cost targets
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Brazil Market Access 2025E 2024 2023 Sales Volumes Million tonnes 6.6 7.2-7.6 7.8-8.2 6.3 9 ¹ Please see appendix for non-GAAP metric definitions 1.4 10.0-10.8 9.03 9.68 9.40 2025 sales volumes guidance of 10.0 to 10.8 million tonnes is ~15% higher than 2024. Palmeriante, expected to be completed in July, will add to our blending capacity; over 50% of 2025 Palmeriante tonnes have been committed by customers. 2022
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Q2 2025 and 2025 Guidance Full Year ($ in millions) 2025 Phosphate Production Volumes (million tonnes) 7.2 - 7.6 Potash Production Volumes (million tonnes) 9.0 - 9.4 Mosaic Fertilizantes Sales Volumes (million tonnes) 10.0 - 10.8 Total Capital Expenditures $1,200 - $1,300 Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization $1,100 - $1,200 Selling, General, and Administrative Expense $470 - $500 Net Interest Expense $180 - $200 Adjusted Effective Tax Rate ~ High 20's% Cash Taxes ~ Mid-to-High 20's% Second Quarter ($ in millions) Q2 2025 Phosphate Sales Volumes (million tonnes) 1.7 - 1.9 DAP Prices (FOB Plant) $635 - $655 Potash Sales Volumes (million tonnes) 2.3 - 2.5 MOP Prices (FOB Mine) $230 - $250
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Sensitivities Table Pricing & Sensitivities FY 2024 Sensitivity Average DAP fob plant ($/tonne) $585 $10 price = $74 million adjusted EBITDA Average MOP fob mine ($/tonne) $222 $10 price = $60 million adjusted EBITDA BRL/USD(1) 5.39 Unhedged: $0.10 = $10 million adjusted EBITDA (1) The company hedged about 50 percent of the annual sensitivity. Over longer periods of time, inflation is expected to offset a portion of currency benefits
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Market Highlights 12
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U.S. Grower Returns Challenging; Globally More Compelling Supplemental government support akin to 2018-2020 would change the picture notably. - 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 19 20 21 22 23 24 25F U.S. Farmer Return (USD/acre Index; 2016-24 Avg=100) Corn Soybean *Excludes land costs/rent. Includes government payments, including 24/25 Economic Loss Assistance Program Payments for the U.S. Sources: USDA, University of Illinois, Mosaic - 50 100 150 200 250 19 20 21 22 23 24 25F Brazil Farmer Return (Reais/hectare Index; Combined 2016-24 Avg=100) Corn Soybean - 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 19 20 21 22 23 24 25F India Rice: Farmer Return (INR/hectare Index; 2016-24 Avg=100)
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Mosaic’s Brazilian Hedge Against NAM Uncertainty Data through April 29, 2025 Source: CME, CEPEA 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.50 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 USD/Bu Brazil vs Chicago Corn Prices Brazil Chicago 9.00 9.25 9.50 9.75 10.00 10.25 10.50 10.75 11.00 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 USD/Bu Brazil vs. Chicago Soybean Prices Brazil Chicago
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Opportunity to Pivot P&K Shipment Plans Amid NAM Uncertainty Source: Mosaic China India Other Asia / Oceania Europe + FSU Brazil Other Latin America North America Other 2025F 76MMT Global Phosphate Demand by Region China India Indonesia+ Malaysia Other Asia W Europe E Europe + FSU Brazil Other Latin America North America Other 2025F 73MMT Global Potash Demand by Region
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200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 Jan-23 May-23 Sep-23 Jan-24 May-24 Sep-24 Jan-25 $/MT MOP Prices Published Spot Prices c&f Brazil c&f SE Asia delivered Cornbelt fob NOLA 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 Jan-25 $/MT Benchmark DAP Stripping Margin Calculated from Published Weekly Spot Prices Rising Prices and Elevated Stripping Margins Source: Argus, Mosaic
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India Poised for China’s Return to the Market Source: Mosaic 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Mil Tonnes China Phosphate Exports DAP/MAP/TSP 2023=7.9 2024=7.3 2025F=6.8 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Mil Tonnes India DAP Imports 2023=6.5 2024=4.6 2025=6.4
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50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 2010 2015 2020 2025F Million Tonnes World Phosphate Supply and Trend Demand Despite Phosphate Supply Growing in 2025, Demand is Still Constrained by Availability 18 Supply includes new capacity ramp-ups and changes in capacity utilization. Source: Mosaic 73.0 73.5 74.0 74.5 75.0 75.5 76.0 76.5 77.0 Million Tonnes Y-o-Y Phosphate Balance Changes Demand Changes '24 to '25 Supply Changes '24 to '25 Trend Demand = ~2% per annum Supply Supply Constraints
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50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 2010 2015 2020 2025F Million Tonnes World Potash Supply and Trend Demand Trend Demand = ~2.5% per annum Affordability Driving Robust Demand as Near-Term Potash Supply Reductions Tighten Global S/D 19 Supply includes new capacity ramp-ups and changes in capacity utilization. Source: Mosaic Supply Supply Constraints 72.0 72.5 73.0 73.5 74.0 74.5 75.0 Million Tonnes Y-o-Y Potash Balance Changes Demand Changes '24 to '25 Supply Changes '24 to '25
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Reconciliations of non- GAAP Measures 20
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Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures Consolidated Earnings (in millions) Q1 2025 Q1 2024 Consolidated net earnings attributable to Mosaic $238 $45 Less: Consolidated interest expense, net (41) (48) Plus: Consolidated depreciation, depletion and amortization 243 241 Plus: Accretion expense 32 27 Plus: Share-based compensation expense 10 9 Plus: Consolidated provision for income taxes 63 6 Less: Equity in net earnings of nonconsolidated companies, net of dividends - 22 Plus: Notable items (83) 222 Adjusted EBITDA $544 $576 Diluted earnings per share $0.75 $0.14 Notable items impact on earnings per share 0.26 (0.51) Adjusted diluted earnings per share $0.49 $0.65
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Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures Potash Earnings (in millions) Q1 2025 Q1 2024 Operating earnings $157 $198 Plus: Depreciation, depletion and amortization 81 82 Plus: Accretion expense 3 2 Plus: Foreign exchange gain (loss) 13 (31) Plus: Other Income (Expense) (1) - Plus: Notable items (13) 30 Adjusted EBITDA $240 $281
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Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures Phosphate Earnings (in millions) Q1 2025 Q1 2024 Operating earnings $139 $40 Plus: Depreciation, depletion and amortization 113 117 Plus: Accretion expense 25 20 Plus: Foreign exchange gain (loss) (3) 2 Plus: Other income (expense) - 3 Plus: Dividends received from equity investment - 15 Less: Earnings from consolidated noncontrolling interests 8 10 Plus: Notable items 10 90 Adjusted EBITDA $276 $277
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Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures Mosaic Fertilizantes Earnings (in millions) Q1 2025 Q1 2024 Operating earnings $98 $42 Plus: Depreciation, depletion and amortization 38 40 Plus: Accretion expense 4 5 Plus: Foreign exchange gain (loss) 41 (45) Plus: Other income (expense) (1) (2) Less: Earnings from consolidated noncontrolling interests 1 1 Plus: Notable items (57) 44 Adjusted EBITDA $122 $83
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Potash Cash Cost of Production Reconciliation 25 Potash Costs (in millions) Q1 2025 Q4 2024 Q1 2024 Total COGS $402 $434 $431 Less: Depreciation and accretion expense 84 94 84 Less: Canadian Resource Taxes 47 56 64 Less: Change in Inventory (27) 24 (25) Less: Non-MOP Production Costs 128 97 150 Total MOP Cash Costs $170 $163 $158 Production Tonnes (Thousands) 2,169 2,224 2,209 MOP Cash Costs of Production per Production Tonne $78 $73 $72
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Phosphate Cash Cost of Conversion Reconciliation 26 Phosphate Costs (in millions) Q1 2025 Q4 2024 Q1 2024 Total COGS $931 $1,027 $1,009 Less: Depreciation and accretion expense 132 157 137 Less: Miski Mayo Costs 51 55 48 Less: Change in Inventory 132 264 273 Less: Non-Production Costs 295 276 245 Less: Cash Cost of U.S. Mined Rock 130 108 133 Total Phosphate Cash Cost of Conversion $191 $167 $173 Production Tonnes (Thousands) 1,423 1,413 1,557 Phosphate Cash Costs of Conversion per Production Tonne $134 $118 $110
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Mosaic Fertilizantes Cash Cost Reconciliations 27 Mosaic Fertilizantes Costs (in millions) Q1 2025 Q4 2024 Q1 2024 Total COGS $807 $986 $811 Less: Distribution Product costs $606 $704 $587 Less: Depreciation and accretion expense $43 $44 $45 Less: Change in Inventory $(78) $(17) $(83) Less: Non-Production Costs $65 $82 $56 Less: Rock Cost of Production $85 $90 $105 Potash Cash Costs of Production $18 $16 $20 Production Tonnes (Thousands) 97 108 104 Potash Cash Costs of Production per Production Tonne $187 $151 $196 Phosphate Cash Costs of Conversion $68 $67 $81 Production Tonnes (Thousands) 778 781 793 Phosphate Cash Costs of Conversion per Production Tonne $87 $85 $101
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