Slides
Page 1
The Mosaic Company1August 5, 2025Second Quarter 2025 Results
Page 2
Forward Looking Statements & Non-GAAP Financial MeasuresThis presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements may include, but are not limited to, statements about future transactions or strategic plans and other statements about future financial and operating results. Such statements are based upon the current beliefs and expectations of The Mosaic Company’s management and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to: political and economic instability and changes in government policies in countries in which we have operations; the predictability and volatility of, and customer expectations about, agriculture, fertilizer, raw material, energy and transportation markets that are subject to competitive and other pressures and economic and credit market conditions; the level of inventories in the distribution channels for crop nutrients; the effect of future product innovations or development of new technologies on demand for our products; changes in foreign currency and exchange rates; international trade risks, including the impact of U.S. tariffs and retaliatory tariffs on economic conditions; and other risks associated with Mosaic’s international operations; a material adverse change in our Ma'aden investment with respect to the financial position, performance, operations or prospects of Ma'aden; customer defaults; the effects of Mosaic’s decisions to exit business operations or locations; changes in government policy; changes in environmental and other governmental regulation, including expansion of the types and extent of water resources regulated under federal law, carbon taxes or other greenhouse gas regulation, implementation of numeric water quality standards for the discharge of nutrients into Florida waterways or efforts to reduce the flow of excess nutrients into the Mississippi River basin, the Gulf of America or elsewhere; further developments in judicial or administrative proceedings, or complaints that Mosaic’s operations are adversely impacting nearby farms, business operations or properties; difficulties or delays in receiving, increased costs of or challenges to necessary governmental permits or approvals or increased financial assurance requirements; resolution of global tax audit activity; the effectiveness of Mosaic’s processes for managing its strategic priorities; adverse weather conditions affecting operations in Central Florida, the Mississippi River basin, the Gulf Coast of the United States, Canada or Brazil, and including potential hurricanes, excess heat, cold, snow, rainfall or drought; actual costs of various items differing from management’s current estimates, including, among others, asset retirement, environmental remediation, reclamation or other environmental regulation, Canadian resources taxes and royalties, reduction of Mosaic’s available cash and liquidity, and increased leverage, due to its use of cash and/or available debt capacity to fund financial assurance requirements and strategic investments; brine inflows at Mosaic’s potash mines; other accidents and disruptions involving Mosaic’s operations, including potential mine fires, floods, explosions, seismic events, sinkholes or releases of hazardous or volatile chemicals; and risks associated with cyber security, including reputational loss; as well as other risks and uncertainties reported from time to time in The Mosaic Company’s reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Actual results may differ from those set forth in the forward-looking statements. This presentation includes the presentation and discussion of non-GAAP diluted net earnings per share, or adjusted EPS, non-GAAP gross margin per tonne, or adjusted gross margin per tonne, non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA, non-GAAP cash cost of conversion or production per tonne, or non-GAAP adjusted effective tax rate, collectively referred to as non-GAAP financial measures. Generally, a non-GAAP financial measure is a supplemental numerical measure of a company's performance, financial position or cash flows that either excludes or includes amounts that are not normally excluded or included in the most directly comparable measure calculated and presented in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP. Non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered as substitutes for, or superior to, measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. In addition, because non-GAAP measures are not determined in accordance with GAAP, they are thus susceptible to varying interpretations and calculations and may not be comparable to other similarly titled measures of other companies. Adjusted metrics, including adjusted EPS, adjusted gross margin, and adjusted EBITDA are calculated by excluding the impact of notable items from the GAAP measure. Notable items impact on gross margin and EBITDA is pretax. Notable items impact on diluted net earnings per share is calculated as the notable item amount plus income tax effect, based on expected annual effective tax rate, divided by diluted weighted average shares. Management believes that these adjusted measures provide securities analysts, investors, management and others with useful supplemental information regarding our performance by excluding certain items that may not be indicative of, or are unrelated to, our core operating results. Management utilizes these adjusted measures in analyzing and assessing Mosaic’s overall performance and financial trends, for financial and operating decision-making, and to forecast and plan for future periods. These adjusted measures also assist our management in comparing our and our competitors' operating results. We are not providing forward looking guidance for U.S. GAAP reported diluted net earnings per share, gross margin per tonne, or a quantitative reconciliation of forward-looking adjusted EPS, adjusted gross margin and adjusted EBITDA because we are unable to predict with reasonable certainty our notable items without unreasonable effort. Historically, our notable items have included, but are not limited to, foreign currency transaction gain or loss, unrealized gain or loss on derivatives and equity securities, acquisition-related fees, discrete tax items, contingencies and certain other gains or losses. These items are uncertain, depend on various factors, and could have a material impact on U.S. GAAP reported results for the guidance period. Reconciliations for Non-GAAP financial measures contained in this press release are found below. Reconciliations for current and historical periods beginning with the quarter ended September 30, 2023 for consolidated adjusted EPS and adjusted EBITDA, as well as segment adjusted EBITDA and adjusted gross margin per tonne are provided in the Selected Calendar Quarter Financial Information performance data for the related periods. This information is being furnished under Exhibit 99.2 of the Form 8-K and available on our website at www.mosaicco.com in the “Financial Information - Quarterly Earnings” section under the “Investors” tab.
Page 3
Second Quarter 2025 Performance$3,006M $244M $411M $566MPhosphatePotashMosaic FertilizantesAdjusted1EBITDANet IncomeOperating EarningsConsolidated Revenues1See Non-GAAP Financial Measures for additional information3$1,173M $8M$217MNet Revenues Adjusted1EBITDAOperating Loss$711MNet Revenues$278MAdjusted1EBITDA$194MOperating Earnings$1,175M $109M$159MNet Revenues Adjusted1EBITDAOperating Earnings
Page 4
Phosphate Results 4 Q2 2025 Key Metrics1.5M tonnesSales Volumes1.5M tonnesProduction Volumes$668/tonneDAP FOB Plant$126/tonneCash Cost of Conversion per tonne1$74/tonneBlended Rock Cost in COGS$84MIdle and Turnaround Expenses$1,173M $8M $217M Q2 prices exceeded initial guidance. Realized stripping margin in excess of$500per tonne Larger-than-usual provisions for legal and environmental reserves, land reclamation, and other items resulted in a $34Mnegative impact to Q2Net Revenues Adjusted1EBITDAOperating Loss Reliability work is largely completed, and we expect to operate at the 8Mtonne per year run rate for the remainder of the yearExpect significant fixed cost absorption benefit and lower idle and TA expenses in Q3 Q2idle and TA expenses $48M higher year over year, but expected to decline in Q31See Non-GAAP Financial Measures for additional information
Page 5
Potash Results 5 Q2 2025 Key Metrics2.3M tonnesSales Volumes2.1M tonnesProduction Volumes$261/tonneMOP FOB Mine$75/tonneCash Cost of Production1$34MIdle and Turnaround Expenses$711MNet Revenues$278MAdjusted1EBITDA$194MOperating Earnings Hydrofloatproduced first potash tonnes in July and has added400ktonnes of annual milling capacityat the low-cost Esterhazy operationQ2 idle and turnaround rose $16M year over year due to shift in Esterhazy turnaround timing;expected to decline in Q3 Raised potash production volume guidanceto the9.3 and 9.5Mtonne range by running Colonsay longer to capitalize on strengthening market fundamentals 1See Non-GAAP Financial Measures for additional information
Page 6
Mosaic Fertilizantes Results 6 Q2 2025 Key Metrics2.2M tonnesSales Volumes1.1M tonnesSales Volumes of Produced Products2$84/tonnePhosphate Cash Cost of Production1$94/tonnePhosphate Blended Rock Cost in COGS$178/tonnePotash Cash Cost of Production1$26MIdle and Turnaround Expenses$1,175MNet Revenues$159MAdjusted1EBITDA$109MOperating Earnings 1 milliontonnePalmeirante blending facility was completed in July, supporting Mosaic’s long-term growth plan in Brazil Larger-than-usual provisions in the segment including bad debt expense, negatively impacted results by $21Min Q2. Insurance Recoveriesagainst bad debt are expected in Q3 and future periods. Expect Q3adjusted EBITDA>$200 million1See Non-GAAP Financial Measures for additional information2Represents volumes produced in Brazil and sold directly to third parties or through distribution
Page 7
REDEFINEGROWTH LEVERAGEMARKET ACCESSNORMALIZE PRODUCTION AND COSTSPerformance and StrategyHighlights7 REALLOCATE CAPITAL Mosaic Fertilizantes Q3 adjusted1EBITDA expected above $200 millionPhosphate Q3 salesvolume in the range of 1.8 to 2.0 MT$150M cost reduction achieved and expanded to $250M2025 potash production volume guidance raised to 9.3 to 9.5 MT rangePalmeirante blending facility complete in JulyStrategic alternatives review for Carlsbad and Taquari progressingAraxa/Patrocinio process to resume in first half 2026Significant free cash flow expected in second halfMosaic Biosciences revenue doubled in first half of 2025Expect positive EBITDA contribution from Mosaic Biosciences in Q4Hydrofloat complete with first production in July Constructive Macro Tailwinds 1See Non-GAAP Financial Measures for additional information Patos to close before year-end
Page 8
Louisiana8Q1 2025Asset HealthElevated Phosphate Asset Reliability Work CompletedRiverviewNew WalesBartow Production reliabilityAsset Health target = 85-95% based on turnaround timingAug 2025Granulation system optimized in Q2 with minor adjustments in July. Assets running at target rates and asset health remains within target range.3 new Gypsum pumping systems have been replaced. Additional reliability work and issues identified and remedied during Q2 and early in Q3; issues have been resolved.
Page 9
Elevated Q2 Idle and Turnaround Expenses Due to Esterhazy Timing and Phosphate Reliability Work 91Idle and Turnaround Expenses include expenses at all active and idled sites. TotalMosaic FertilizantesPotashPhosphatePeriod$144M$26M$34M$84MQ2 2025$58M$13M$1M$44MQ1 2025$78M$24M$18M$36MQ2 2024+$66M+$2M+$16M+$48MQ2 Year over Year Change
Page 10
Hydrofloat to Help Optimize Potash Costs 10¹ Cost includes actual production cost per tonne in 2024 2Canadian Resource tax based on a $300 per tonne FOB mine priceThe Hydrofloat project provides 400,000 tonnes in incremental capacity at our low-cost Esterhazy mine.Enables Mosaic to flex capacity to produce more low-cost tonnes and optimize Canadian Resource Tax.Based on 2024 price, costs and Canadian Resource tax, there is an approximate $60 per tonne benefit to producing additional tonnes at Esterhazy.~$100~$40Incremental Cost per Production TonneCanadianResource TaxCost per tonneColonsay¹ Esterhazy¹-$60 per tonne
Page 11
Cost Reduction and Value Capture Target Raised to $250 Million 11$106 million$55 million~$90 millionAs of June 30, 2025 2026Mosaic FertilizantesSG&AAdditional Opportunities$161 million$250 million¹ Cost reduction target based on 2023 baseline.$150 million cost reduction target has been achieved.¹Value capture target has been expanded to $250 million to be achieved by the end of 2026.¹Additional opportunities include:•Automation of administrative functions•Supply chain optimization•Further cost reductions in operations•Fixed cost absorption
Page 12
Palmeirante to Support Long Term Growth Plan in Brazil 12Mosaic’s Palmeiranteblending facility was recently opened in the fast-growing northern region of Brazil.Palmeirante will contribute one million tonnes of blending capacity.Significant organic growth expected as the Brazil agriculture market continues to expand.Mosaic Fertilizantes Total Sales VolumesMillion tonnes20242025E 2027E9.210.0 -10.813.0 - 14.02024 Mosaic Fertilizantes Total Sales VolumesOrganic Sales Volume GrowthSales Volume Growth from Palmeriante
Page 13
13 Long-term Aspiration$250-$500 million adjusted EBITDA2025~$70 million revenue202612 launched products to date2030~$200 million adjusted EBITDA20249 million acres Mosaic Biosciences Progressing on MilestonesMosaic Biosciences is expected to positively contribute to adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarterLaunched 2 new products year to date and expect to launch 3 more in the remainder of the yearRevenue for the first half of 2025 more than doubled vs. same period last year and is on track to reach the $70 million target in 2025
Page 14
Capital Reallocation Update Further feasibility studies to be completed; negotiations to resume in 1H 2026~111 million Ma’aden shares with a clear path to monetizationSold for $160 million in 2023Sale expected to close in 2025 Proceeds/Value PotentialAraxa / PatrocinioTaquariMa’aden sharesStreamsongCarlsbadPatos de MinasStrategy 14 Engaging with interested parties to advance on strategic alternativesEngaging with interested parties to advance on strategic alternatives
Page 15
Mosaic is Committed to Reduce Debt and Return Capital to Shareholders 15Mosaic anticipates significant free cash flow generation through the balance of the year.Additional free cash flow will be allocated to reduction of debt, dividends and share repurchases.YTD 2025Q2 2025Key Cash Flow Metrics$652 million$610 millionNet Cash provided by Operating Activities($645 million)($305 million)Capital Expenditures$7 million$305 millionFree Cash Flow* $173 million($213 million)Change in Net Debt($141 million)($70 million)Dividends* Free cash flow is defined as net cash provided by operating activities less capital expenditures
Page 16
Q3 2025 GuidanceQ3 2025Third Quarter ($ in millions)1.8 – 2.0Phosphate Sales Volumes (million tonnes)$700 - $720DAP Prices (FOB Plant)2.2 - 2.4Potash Sales Volumes (million tonnes)$270 - $290MOP Prices (FOB Mine)16
Page 17
2025 Guidance2025Full Year ($ in millions)6.9 - 7.2Phosphate Production Volumes (million tonnes)9.3 - 9.5Potash Production Volumes (million tonnes)10.0 - 10.8Mosaic Fertilizantes Sales Volumes (million tonnes)$1.2 - $1.3 billionTotal Capital Expenditures$1.1 - $1.2 billionDepreciation, Depletion and Amortization$520 - $550Selling, General, and Administrative Expense$180 - $200Net Interest Expense~ High 20's%Adjusted Effective Tax Rate~ Low 20's%Cash Taxes17
Page 18
Sensitivities TableSensitivityFY 2024Pricing & Sensitivities$10 price = $70 million adjusted EBITDA$585Average DAP fob plant ($/tonne)$10 price = $65 million adjusted EBITDA$222Average MOP fob mine ($/tonne)18
Page 19
Market Highlights19
Page 20
Optionality to Pursue Active Demand Outside NAM and Brazil and Away from Corn and Soybeans Source: IFA, MosaicChinaIndiaOther Asia/OceaniaEurope + FSUBrazilOther Latin AmericaNorth AmericaOther2025F74MMTGlobal Phosphate Demand by RegionChinaIndiaIndonesia+MalaysiaOther AsiaW EuropeE Europe + FSUBrazilOther Latin AmericaNorth AmericaOther 2025F74MMTGlobal Potash Demand by RegionNorth America and Brazil each represent less than 15% of global phosphate demand and less than 20% of global potash demandCorn and soybeans combined represent less than a third of all Phosphate and Potash demand20
Page 21
200250300350400450500550600Jan-23 Jul-23 Jan-24 Jul-24 Jan-25 Jul-25$/MTc&f Brazilc&f SE Asiadelivered Cornbeltfob NOLA200250300350400450500550600Jan-23 Jul-23 Jan-24 Jul-24 Jan-25 Jul-25$/MTRising Prices and Elevated Phosphate Stripping Margins Source: Argus, Mosaic21 MOP PricesPublished Spot PricesBenchmark DAP Stripping MarginCalculated from Published Weekly Spot Prices
Page 22
Global Phosphate Demand Remains Constrained by Supply Source: IFA, CRU, Company Reports, Mosaic-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.0Supply Change Demand Change-0.12 0.32Million TonnesChinaIndiaBrazilNorth AmericaEurope + FSUME + AfricaOther 5055606570758010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24E 25FMillionTonnes22 Global Phosphate ShipmentsDAP/MAP/NPS/TSP2025 YoY Changes of Phosphate Supply/DemandDAP/MAP/NPS/TSP
Page 23
Phosphate Pent-up Demand in India is Unfolding as Chinese Exports Move Lower Source: China Customs, FAI, TDM, Mosaic01234567815 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25FMil Tonnes0246810121415 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25FMil Tonnes23China Phosphate ExportsDAP/MAP/TSPIndia DAP/TSP Imports
Page 24
Potash Affordability Driving Robust Demand. Supply Reductions Tighten Supply-Demand Picture Source: IFA, CRU, Company Reports, Mosaic 0102030405060708010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24E 25F-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.5Supply Change Demand Change-0.04 -0.07BrazilChinaIndiaSE AsiaNorth AmericaEurope+FSUOther24Global MOP Shipments2025 YoY Changes of Potash Supply/Demand(MOP)MillionTonnesMillion Tonnes KCl
Page 25
0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.4202122232425 Strong Palm Oil Fundamentals Driving Higher Potash Demand Source: Argus, KLSE, TDMLess Affordable FertilizersMore Affordable Fertilizers37%0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.0Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecMin/Max Range (20-24)20242025YTD % change vs. 202425SE Asia MOP/CPO Price Ratio(MOP/CPO)Indonesia + Malaysia MOP ImportsMil Tonnes
Page 26
Reconciliations of non-GAAP Measures26
Page 27
Reconciliation of non-GAAP measuresQ2 2024Q2 2025Consolidated Earnings (Loss) (in millions) $(162)$411Consolidated net earnings attributable to Mosaic(46)(53)Less: Consolidated interest expense, net264262Plus: Consolidated depreciation, depletion and amortization2833Plus: Accretion expense128Plus: Share-based compensation expense99146Plus: Consolidated provision for income taxes22-Less: Equity in net earnings of nonconsolidated companies, net of dividends319(347)Plus: Notable items$584$566Adjusted EBITDA27
Page 28
Q2 2025Mosaic FertilizantesPotashPhosphateEarnings (in millions) $109$194$(8)Operating earnings (loss)4479129Plus: Depreciation, depletion and amortization4326Plus: Accretion expense(17)82(7)Plus: Foreign exchange gain (loss)(1)1(8)Plus: Other income (expense)(1)-10Less: Earnings from consolidated noncontrolling interests19(81)95Plus: Notable items$159$278$217Adjusted EBITDAReconciliation of non-GAAP measures 28
Page 29
Potash Cash Cost of Production ReconciliationQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Potash Costs (in millions) $477$402$501Total COGS978482Less: Depreciation and accretion expense674762Less: Canadian Resource Taxes9(27)26Less: Change in Inventory 170128179Less: Non-MOP Production Costs$134$170$152Total MOP Cash Costs2,1002,1692,025Production Tonnes (Thousands)$64$78$75MOP Cash Costs of Production per Production Tonne29
Page 30
Phosphate Cash Cost of Conversion ReconciliationQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Phosphate Costs (in millions) $1,026$931$1,070Total COGS159132163Less: Depreciation and accretion expense475122Less: Miski Mayo Costs274132226Less: Change in Inventory 247295334Less: Non-Production Costs131130135Less: Cash Cost of U.S. Mined Rock$168$191$190Total Phosphate Cash Cost of Conversion1,6751,4231,505Production Tonnes (Thousands)$100$134$126Phosphate Cash Costs of Conversion per Production Tonne30
Page 31
Mosaic Fertilizantes Cash Cost ReconciliationsQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Mosaic Fertilizantes Costs (in millions) $947$807$1,013Total COGS661606810Less: Distribution Product costs464348Less: Depreciation and accretion expense(17)(78)(93)Less: Change in Inventory 656565Less: Non-Production Costs1018590Less: Rock Cost of Production$16$18$22Potash Cash Costs of Production7997122Production Tonnes (Thousands)$208$187$178Potash Cash Costs of Production per Production Tonne$75$68$71Phosphate Cash Costs of Conversion752778842Production Tonnes (Thousands)$100$87$84Phosphate Cash Costs of Conversion per Production Tonne31
Page 32
Appendix32
Page 33
$258$290$33$13$13$27$501$497$31$13$4833Realized $55 million in SG&A cost reductions compared to the 2023 baseline.SG&A was a significant contributor to the $150 million cost reduction program.2024 Cost SavingsFY 2023Bad DebtGlobal Digital Accelaration AmortizationCost Savings1 FY 2024-$4M1H 2023Bad Debt Global Digital Acceleration AmortizationMarket-adjusted benefitsCost Savings11H 2025+$32M2025 Cost Savings1Portion of cost savings realized as of Q2 2025 (H1 2025 vs. H1 2023 = $27M + H2 2024 vs. H2 2023 = $28M) $28M Realized in 2024 2H
Page 34
©2025 The Mosaic Company