Slides
Page 1
The Mosaic Company 1 November 3rd, 2026 Third Quarter 2026 Results
Page 2
Forward Looking Statements & Non-GAAP Financial Measures This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements may include, but are not limited to, statements about future transactions or strategic plans and other statements about future financial and operating results. Such statements are based upon the current beliefs and expectations of The Mosaic Company’s management and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to: political and economic instability, including geopolitical instability and heightened tensions involving Iran, disruptions to global shipping routes, including the Strait of Hormuz, and changes in government policies in countries in which we have operations; the predictability and volatility of, and customer expectations about, agriculture, fertilizer, raw material, energy and transportation markets, including the cost and availability of sulfur and other key raw materials and inputs and potential disruptions to their production, supply or transportation, that are subject to competitive and other pressures and economic and credit market conditions; the level of inventories in the distribution channels for crop nutrients; changes in fertilizer use and application rates; the effect of future product innovations or development of new technologies on demand for our products; changes in foreign currency and exchange rates; international trade risks, including the impact of U.S. tariffs and retaliatory tariffs on economic conditions; and other risks associated with Mosaic’s international operations; a material adverse change in our Ma'aden investment with respect to the financial position, performance, operations or prospects of Ma'aden; customer defaults; the effects of Mosaic’s decisions to exit business operations or locations; the potential for curtailments, slowdowns, or temporary shutdowns of production due to market conditions, input availability, transportation constraints, or other operational factors; changes in government policy; changes in environmental and other governmental regulation, including expansion of the types and extent of water resources regulated under federal law, carbon taxes or other greenhouse gas regulation, implementation of numeric water quality standards for the discharge of nutrients into Florida waterways or efforts to reduce the flow of excess nutrients into the Mississippi River basin, the Gulf of America or elsewhere; further developments in judicial or administrative proceedings, or complaints that Mosaic’s operations are adversely impacting nearby farms, business operations or properties; difficulties or delays in receiving, increased costs of or challenges to necessary governmental permits or approvals or increased financial assurance requirements; resolution of global tax audit activity; the effectiveness of Mosaic’s processes for managing its strategic priorities; adverse weather conditions affecting operations in Central Florida, the Mississippi River basin, the Gulf Coast of the United States, Canada or Brazil, and including potential hurricanes, excess heat, cold, snow, rainfall or drought; actual costs of various items differing from management’s current estimates, including, among others, asset retirement, environmental remediation, reclamation or other environmental regulation, Canadian resources taxes and royalties, reduction of Mosaic’s available cash and liquidity, and increased leverage, due to its use of cash and/or available debt capacity to fund financial assurance requirements and strategic investments; brine inflows at Mosaic’s potash mines; other accidents and disruptions involving Mosaic’s operations, including potential mine fires, floods, explosions, seismic events, sinkholes or releases of hazardous or volatile chemicals; and risks associated with cyber security, including reputational loss; as well as other risks and uncertainties reported from time to time in The Mosaic Company’s reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Actual results may differ from those set forth in the forward-looking statements. This presentation includes the discussion of non-GAAP diluted net earnings per share, or adjusted EPS, non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA, non-GAAP cash cost of conversion or production per tonne, or non-GAAP adjusted effective tax rate, collectively referred to as non-GAAP financial measures. Generally, a non-GAAP financial measure is a supplemental numerical measure of a company's performance, financial position or cash flows that either excludes or includes amounts that are not normally excluded or included in the most directly comparable measure calculated and presented in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP. Non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered as substitutes for, or superior to, measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. In addition, because non-GAAP measures are not determined in accordance with GAAP, they are thus susceptible to varying interpretations and calculations and may not be comparable to other similarly titled measures of other companies. Adjusted metrics, including adjusted EPS, and adjusted EBITDA are calculated by excluding the impact of notable items from the GAAP measure. Notable items impact on gross margin and adjusted EBITDA is pretax. Notable items impact on diluted net earnings per share is calculated as the notable item amount plus income tax effect, based on expected annual effective tax rate, divided by diluted weighted average shares. Management believes that these adjusted measures provide securities analysts, investors, management and others with useful supplemental information regarding our performance by excluding certain items that may not be indicative of, or are unrelated to, our core operating results. Management utilizes these adjusted measures in analyzing and assessing Mosaic’s overall performance and financial trends, for financial and operating decision-making, and to forecast and plan for future periods. These adjusted measures also assist our management in comparing our and our competitors' operating results. We are not providing forward looking guidance for U.S. GAAP reported diluted net earnings per share or a quantitative reconciliation of forward- looking adjusted EPS and adjusted EBITDA because we are unable to predict with reasonable certainty our notable items without unreasonable effort. Historically, our notable items have included, but are not limited to, foreign currency transaction gain or loss, unrealized gain or loss on derivatives and equity securities, acquisition-related fees, discrete tax items, contingencies and certain other gains or losses. These items are uncertain, depend on various factors, and could have a material impact on U.S. GAAP reported results for the guidance period. Reconciliations for Non-GAAP financial measures contained in this press release are found below. Reconciliations for current and historical periods beginning with the quarter ended December 31, 2024 for consolidated adjusted EPS and adjusted EBITDA, as well as segment adjusted EBITDA are provided in the Selected Calendar Quarter Financial Information performance data for the related periods. This information is being furnished under Exhibit 99.2 of the Form 8-K and available on our website at www.mosaicco.com in the “Financial Information - Quarterly Earnings” section under the “Investors” tab. 2
Page 3
$3,101M ($97M) ($72M) $324M PhosphatePotash Mosaic Fertilizantes Adjusted EBITDA1 Net Income (Loss) Operating Earnings (Loss) Consolidated Revenues 1 See Non-GAAP Financial Measures for additional information 3 $1,295M ($194M) $49M Net Revenues Adjusted EBITDA1 Operating Earnings (Loss) $643M Net Revenues $284M Adjusted EBITDA 1 $189M Operating Earnings $1,254M ($21M) $41M Net Revenues Adjusted EBITDA 1 Operating Earnings (Loss) Third Quarter 2026 Performance
Page 4
Q3 2026 Potash Results 4 Cash production costs improved $11 per tonne sequentially to $73. Fourth quarter North America volumes fully committed. Strong demand given available supply has kept potash markets balanced. Key Metrics Q3 2026 Sales Volumes – million tonnes* 2.1 Production Volumes – million tonnes* 2.1 MOP Selling Price FOB Mine – $ per tonne $276 MOP Cash Cost of Production1 – $ per tonne $73 Idle, Turnaround and Unabsorbed Fixed Costs in COGS – millions $ $20 $643M $189M $284M Net Revenues Adjusted EBITDA 1 Operating Earnings * Tonnes = finished product tonnes 1 See Non-GAAP Financial Measures for additional information
Page 5
Q3 2026 Phosphate Results 5 Key Metrics Q3 2026 Sales Volumes – million tonnes* 1.4 Production Volumes – million tonnes* 1.3 DAP Selling Price FOB Plant – $ per tonne $838 Phosphate Cash Cost of Conversion1 – $ per tonne $117 Blended Rock Cost Consumed in COGS1 – $ per tonne $91 Idle, Turnaround and Unabsorbed Fixed Costs in COGS – millions $ $77 Conversion costs improved to $117 per tonne despite lower production volumes. * Tonnes = finished product tonnes 1 See Non-GAAP Financial Measures for additional information Efficiently managed working capital by matching production with affordable sulfur supply. Latest sulfur contract price of $615 per ton will benefit Q4 cash flow. $1,295M ($194M) $49M Net Revenues Adjusted EBITDA1 Operating Earnings (Loss)
Page 6
Q3 2026 Mosaic Fertilizantes Results 6 Key Metrics Q3 2026 Sales Volumes – million tonnes* 1.9 Sales Volumes of Produced Products – million tonnes2 0.3 Phosphate Cash Cost of Conversion1 – $ per tonne $147 Phosphate Blended Rock Cost Consumed in COGS – $ per tonne $121 Idle, Turnaround and Unabsorbed Fixed Costs in COGS3 – millions $ $70 Third quarter distribution margins improved sequentially. * Tonnes = finished product tonnes sold to third parties 1 See Non-GAAP Financial Measures for additional information 2 Represents volumes produced in Brazil and sold directly to third parties or through distribution 3 Idle and Turnaround Expenses excludes notable items. Strong working capital release benefited cash flow High-quality customer base demonstrates disciplined risk management. $1,254M ($21M) $41M Net Revenues Adjusted EBITDA1 Operating Earnings (Loss)
Page 7
7 MOP cash cost of production cost1 (US$/tonne) $74 $73 $78 $75 $71 $77 $84 $84 $73 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 Q3 2024 Q4 2024 Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2025 Q1 2026 Q2 2026 Q3 2026 Stronger operations, favorable FX and cost control lowered cash costs to a 2026 low of $73 per tonne. Production rose approximately 14% sequentially, with turnaround timing also lowering unit costs. Costs remained slightly above Q3 2025 as Esterhazy ore-grade challenges constrained output. Potash Cash Production Costs at the Lowest Level in 2026 1See Non-GAAP Financial Measures for additional information
Page 8
8 Q4 sulfur contract settlement of $615 per long ton benefits cash flow first, earnings later. Realized Sulfur Cost Trails Contract Prices as Inventory Flows Through COGS Contract: Price paid on new quarterly sulfur purchases. Realized: Sulfur cost carried in COGS, including logistics. Lag: Realized cost trails contract changes as earlier-purchased inventory turns. Sulfur Quarterly Contract vs. Realized Cost in COGS (USD$ per long ton) $310 $500 $655 $705 $306 $379 $522 $715 Q4 '25 Q1 '26 Q2 '26 Q3 '26 Quarterly Tampa Sulfur Contract Realized Sulfur Cost in COGS
Page 9
Inventory Reduction Drove Working Capital Release 9 Consolidated Finished Goods Ending Inventory (USD billions) $1.94B $1.50B Q2 '26 Q3 '26 Decrease in consolidated finished goods inventory largely driven by Mosaic Fertilizantes.
Page 10
Market Highlights 10 Need new visual. Still a market theme
Page 11
Fertilizer Affordability Has Improved 0.75 1.50 2.25 DAP 0.60 0.90 1.20 MOP 0.60 1.00 1.40 Urea 11 Source: Weekly Price Publications, CME, USDA, AAPFCO, Mosaic Data through October 29, 2026 -1% +67% 1% 7% 3% +29% 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 Affordability Metric Average (2010-present) Plant Nutrient Affordability Plant Nutrient Price Index / Crop Price Index Affordability by Nutrient Plant Nutrient Price Index / Crop Price Index More Affordable Fertilizers Less Affordable Fertilizers Average (2010-present) y-o-y chg. vs 2010-present avg.
Page 12
12 Reduced Fertilizer Applications Create Visible Yield Risk Deficient Sufficient Excessive Deficient: Skipping fertilizers could impact yield by ~10-15%. This is observable Sufficient: Skipping fertilizer could impact yield by ~3-5%. This is difficult to observe Excessive: Skipping fertilizer could impact yield by <1%. This will not be observed Source: Esri, USGS | Esri, TomTom, FAO, NOAA, USGS (https://world-Olsen.agr.nz)Source: Land Grant Universities (prompted and compiled with Microsoft Copilot) Notes: Does not account for the potential positive or negative yield impact of additional variables, including weather; assumes zero P application (i.e. skipped application)
Page 13
13 Source: Veeries, ANDA, CONAB, Mosaic Improving Barter Ratios and Eight-Year-Low Stocks Signal Demand for Nutrient Replenishment in Brazil Brazil Corn and Soybean Barter Ratios Brazil Phosphate Ending Stocks DAP/MAP/TSP/NPs/SSP 0 50 100 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec bag/mt Corn 5 Yr. Range 5 yr Avg 2025 2026 0 20 40 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec bag/mt Soybeans 5 Yr. Range 5 yr Avg 2025 2026 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 20 21 22 23 24 25 26F Mil Tonnes
Page 14
Raw Material Prices Decline; Q4 Tampa Sulfur Contract Settles Well Below Global Spot Prices 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 Jan-25 Jan-26 $/MT Sulfur Prices Tampa Middle East China 14 Sources: Argus, Fertecon, CRU Data through October 29, 2026 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 Jan-25 Jan-26 $/MT Ammonia Prices W. Europe N. Africa Tampa Sulfur Prices Published Spot and Contract Prices Ammonia Prices Published Spot and Contract Prices
Page 15
Constrained Supply Support DAP Prices 15 Source: Argus, IFA, CRU, Company Reports, Mosaic Prices as of October 29, 2026 Phosphate Prices Published Spot Prices Global Phosphate Shipments DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Jan-25 Apr-25 Jul-25 Oct-25 Jan-26 Apr-26 Jul-26 Oct-26 $/MT DAP c&f India MAP c&f Brazil DAP fob Tampa DAP fob NOLA 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25E26F Mil Tonnes
Page 16
Rising Chinese LFP Production Further Reduces Phosphate Exports 16 Represents DAP/MAP/TSP/NP export forecast on a DAP-equivalent basis Source: China Customs, CAEV, Biachuan, Mosaic 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26F Mil Tonnes DAP-Equiv NP Historical DAP/MAP/TSP Historical 2026 DAP Equiv Exports China LFP Production Cumulative China Phosphate Exports DAP/MAP/TSP/NP 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mil Tonnes 2024 2025 2026
Page 17
U.S. Phosphate and Potash Imports Below Recent Highs 17 YTD U.S. Offshore MOP Imports Jan-Oct Est. YTD U.S. Offshore Phosphate Imports DAP/MAP/TSP/NPs Jan-Oct Est. Source: DOC, TDM, Wood Mackenzie, Mosaic 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26E Mil Tonnes Other Australia Mexico Tunisia Egypt Israel Saudi Jordan Lithuania Russia Morocco 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26E Mil Tonnes Russia Israel Belarus Other
Page 18
Global Potash Demand Reaches New Highs 18 Source: Argus, IFA, CRU, Company Reports, Mosaic Prices as of October 29, 2026 250 300 350 400 450 500 Jan-25 Apr-25 Jul-25 Oct-25 Jan-26 Apr-26 Jul-26 Oct-26 $/MT c&f Brazil c&f SE Asia delivered Cornbelt fob NOLA Potash Prices Published Spot Prices Global Potash Shipments MOP 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25E26F Mil Tonnes
Page 19
Performance and Strategy Highlights 19
Page 20
REDEFINE GROWTH LEVERAGE MARKET ACCESS Performance and Strategy Highlights 20 REALLOCATE CAPITAL SG&A cost initiatives through the second half of the year to drive annualized spending below $500 million in 2027. Q3 improvements in Potash unit cash costs expected to continue into 2027. MF distribution margins have improved sequentially. 2027 capex targeted less than $1 billion. Biosciences on track to double 2026 net sales to $135 million. Constructive Long-Term Macro Tailwinds Optimized product mix and rerouted shipments to meet demand around the world. NORMALIZE PRODUCTION AND COSTS Advancing portfolio divestitures, including Araxá, land sales, and other assets. Mosaic Biosciences expects to launch 8- 10 products in 2026. Refinanced and extended maturities through 2028.
Page 21
$229 ($56) $104 $167 $284 Q3 '25 Q4 '25 Q1 '26 Q2 '26 Q3 '26 Net Cash Provided from Operations (US$M) 21 Operating cash flow improved for three consecutive quarters from Q4 2025, demonstrating sustained momentum. Q3 drove a meaningful share of year-to-date cash flow, reinforcing confidence in the trajectory. Operating cash flow is expected to improve sequentially in Q4. Q3 Operating Cash Flow Sequentially Improving
Page 22
22 Q3 Bond Refinancing Extends Long-Term Maturities $500 $570 $339 $400 $1,000 $500 $500 $500 $300 $600 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 Debt Maturities by Year (US$M) 2026 Term Loan 2023 Term Loan Bonds No long-term obligations in 2027 and 2028. $2.5B revolving credit facility remains fully available, preserving financial flexibility.
Page 23
Capital Reallocation Update Continued to advance Araxa sale process in Q3 2026 ~111 million Ma’aden shares1 Closed in 2025 Proceeds Potential Carlsbad Araxa / Patrocinio Ma’aden shares Taquari Patos de Minas Strategy 23 Closed in 2025 Closed in April 2026 1 Approximate value of ~$1.8 billion as of 9/30/2026 Land monetization Targeting over $100 million in cumulative land sales by the end of 2027, including $67 million completed year-to-date. Less than $50M $50M-$250M $250-$500M $500M+In Progress Completed
Page 24
24 Net Sales Registrations Innovation Platform Expecting to Approximately Double Net Sales in 2026 90+ Total registrations 6 Countries $13 $27 $68 $135 + 2023 2024 2025 2026F (In million USD) Product launches through Q3 2026 Mbio Floresce ® (Brazil) Refirma Cybellion ® (Brazil) Reva ® (India) Neptunion Esprit ® (China) BioBlend ® (Brazil) Renuvis Enzara ® (USA) 18 Total countries with product sales 8-10 Product launches targeted in 2026 Mosaic Biosciences Growth Continues Countries with Sales & Registrations Countries with Registrations Only
Page 25
Q4 2026 Guidance Q4 2026 Phosphate Sales Volumes - million tonnes 1.3 - 1.6 DAP FOB Plant Prices - $ per tonne $820 - $840 Potash Sales Volumes - million tonnes 2.3 - 2.6 MOP FOB Mine Prices - $ per tonne $255 - $275 25
Page 26
2026 Guidance Full Year 2026 Potash Production Volumes - million tonnes 8.6 Total Capital Expenditures - billions $ $1.2 Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization - billions $ $1.1 - $1.2 Selling, General, and Administrative Expense - millions $ $510 - $530 Net Interest Expense - millions $ $240 - $260 Cash Tax - millions $ $175 - $225 26
Page 27
Sensitivities Table Pricing & Sensitivities1 FY 2025 Sensitivity Average DAP fob plant ($/tonne) $670 $10 price = $60 million adjusted EBITDA Average MOP fob mine ($/tonne) $255 $10 price = $83 million adjusted EBITDA2 27 1 These sensitivities are provided based on 2025 cost structure and realized prices. 2 Includes impact of Canadian Resource Tax
Page 28
Reconciliations of non- GAAP Measures 28
Page 29
Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures 29 Consolidated Earnings (in millions) Q3 2026 Consolidated net earnings (loss) attributable to Mosaic $(72) Less: Consolidated interest expense, net (60) Plus: Consolidated depreciation, depletion and amortization 292 Plus: Accretion expense 33 Plus: Share-based compensation expense 5 Plus: (Benefit) provision for income taxes (38) Plus: Notable items 44 Adjusted EBITDA $324
Page 30
30 Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures Potash Earnings (in millions) Q3 2026 Operating earnings $189 Plus: Depreciation, depletion and amortization 91 Plus: Accretion expense 3 Plus: Foreign exchange gain (loss) 33 Plus: Other income (expense) - Plus: Notable items (32) Adjusted EBITDA $284
Page 31
31 Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures Phosphates Earnings (in millions) Q3 2026 Operating earnings (loss) $(194) Plus: Depreciation, depletion and amortization 151 Plus: Accretion expense 26 Plus: Foreign exchange gain (loss) 1 Plus: Other income (expense) (12) Less: Earnings from consolidated noncontrolling interests 7 Plus: Notable items 84 Adjusted EBITDA $49
Page 32
Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures 32 Mosaic Fertilizantes Earnings (in millions) Q3 2026 Operating earnings (loss) $(21) Plus: Depreciation, depletion and amortization 40 Plus: Accretion expense 4 Plus: Foreign exchange gain (loss) 2 Plus: Other income (expense) (1) Less: Earnings (loss) from consolidated noncontrolling interests - Plus: Notable items 17 Adjusted EBITDA $41
Page 33
Potash Cash Cost of Production Reconciliation 33 Potash Costs (in millions) Q3 2026 Total COGS $444 Less: Depreciation and Accretion Expense 94 Less: Canadian Resource Taxes 85 Less: Change in Inventory 32 Less: Non-MOP Production Costs 79 Total MOP Cash Costs $154 Production Tonnes (Thousands) 2,103 MOP Cash Costs of Production per Production Tonne $73
Page 34
Phosphate Cash Cost of Conversion Reconciliation 34 Phosphate Costs (in millions) Q3 2026 Total COGS $1,443 Less: Depreciation and Accretion expense 165 Less: Miski Mayo Costs 52 Less: Raw Material COGS and Product Freight 617 Less: Change in Inventory (4) Less: Non-Production Costs 321 Less: Cash Cost of U.S. Mined Rock 141 Total Phosphate Cash Cost of Conversion $151 Production Tonnes (Thousands) 1,289 Phosphate Cash Costs of Conversion per Production Tonne $117
Page 35
Mosaic Fertilizantes Cash Cost Reconciliations 35 Mosaic Fertilizantes Costs (in millions) Q3 2026 Total COGS $1,227 Less: Distribution Product costs 1,017 Less: Depreciation and Accretion Expense 45 Less: Change in Inventory 65 Less: Non-Production Costs 25 Less: Rock Cost of Production 35 Phosphate Cash Costs of Conversion $40 Production Tonnes (Thousands) 273 Phosphate Cash Costs of Conversion per Production Tonne $147
Page 36
©2026 The Mosaic Company