Okay, we're going to keep moving. We're heading into the back nine on day one of our energy conference. Again, this is Arun Jayaram from JP Morgan's E&P, OFS, and Integrated Oils research team. Delighted to have our next presenter, Murphy Oil. Murphy is a truly diversified E&P who has operations onshore, offshore, U.S., internationally, plays that span the Eagle Ford, Gulf of America, Canada, Vietnam, and a growing international exploration portfolio. Very happy that Murphy decided to put out some breaking news yesterday on some favorable results with the drill bit offshore West Africa. We'll probably spend some time on talking a little bit about that, just because it is really important to the story. Eric, how are you? I'm doing really well, thank you. Well- It's always nice to be able to come to a conference like this and talk about oil discoveries. Take all those that you can get. Well, joining us today is Eric Hambly, who's the President and CEO of Murphy. Eric, before talking about some of the recent developments, I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about the macro picture and how you're thinking about what's happening in the Middle East in terms of Murphy and your capital allocation decisions. Arun, we've been fortunate enough to pretty much stay the course with our capital program here. We're not affected by any type of disruption from the Middle East. We don't have a Middle East business or a business that's materially affected by anything happening in the Middle East. We've benefited, as quite a few E&Ps have, from higher oil prices. We're using that to generate more cash. We haven't been able to use that cash to do much more than just kind of stack it up on the balance sheet. We did some bond deals recently, which make it very hard for us to reduce our debt, and we've been fortunate enough to have success with the drill bit, which led to more spending on appraisal success at the Bubale-1x discovery. We'll get into it, but likely another appraisal well coming on the back of the discovery well, which will eat up a little bit of that cash. We should still generate really strong cash flows this year on the back of quite high oil prices compared to our budget expectation. All right. Why don't we just go ahead and dig in? Yesterday, you updated the market about your drilling progress in Bubale, which is in Côte d'Ivoire. Maybe you could just set the stage about your exploration program in West Africa and maybe next talk about what you learned from your test at Bubale. Sure. We put together a three-well exploration program where we were testing three independent prospects, and we announced the results from those first two wells earlier this year. Both of those wells found non-commercial hydrocarbons, so we expensed those wells as dry holes. We learned a bit from the wells, and we'll continue to incorporate learnings from those wells into future prospectivity on all the blocks. We were fortunate to have a discovery at Bubale. Bubale's an interesting well because we were able to test a Turonian objective and a Cenomanian objective where they are stacked on top of each other. Turonian system crosses through the block in one kind of axis, and the Cenomanian sand goes in another, and they happen to cross, and they look like an X, one Turonian sitting on top of Cenomanian. We were able to put the well right where they cross and test two objectives in one well, which is one of the reasons why we chose that well, because we thought they both looked prospective. We were fortunate to find oil in both of them and are happy that the well found enough oil that we believe it is a commercial discovery. The features of the Turonian and the Cenomanian are very large and will require some appraisal to help us narrow the range of resource potential. Before we drilled the well, we released a resource estimate of 340 to 850 million barrels of oil equivalent on a gross basis. Right now, we're not in a position with what we know in the well to do any kind of updating on that. We're not saying we know it's smaller or know it's bigger. We're saying we need to learn more. We're happy with what we found. We think we found at least a minimal threshold to have a commercial development, and we're moving right away to appraise. The potential outcomes in terms of resource is still very broad. Again, two very large features. The wells were drilled not in the exact middle of the column in terms of crest to down dip, but in the upper part. Not in the middle, but a little bit above the middle. There's a lot of potential volume to find down dip. We're still working an appraisal plan, but we're likely to have a well test down dip, either the Cenomanian or the Turonian, and we'll move from when we finish operations on the Bubale-1x well soon, in the coming week or so. We will move immediately to be able to test that. We set ourselves up in this three-well program with an ability to add a fourth well with success. Obviously, we were hoping to have success on all the wells, but that's not how exploration works. Yeah. What we've found so far in Bubale suggests that it makes sense for us to move quickly to go appraise, and we'll do that well. When we're done with that appraisal well, it'll be the Bubale- 2X well. The rig will, not long after we're done, leave to go do work for another operator in Australia. That's a Transocean Skyros rig. We will likely come back in 2027 with additional appraisal activity. We will be probably appraising as we go there. We'll learn from the next well. If we find oil to base in a down dip position, it would suggest you need to go even further down dip to keep chasing oil. If you think about the configuration we have, two reservoirs, two discoveries, you may at some point need to appraise up dip in both and down dip in maybe multiple locations in both. Today we look and think it's likely that in addition to the discovery well, you may need three to five appraisal wells to fully understand the resource size, and importantly, what does the development concept look like, how you develop it, what kind of CapEx program do you have to develop it? What's the exact development concept? All that. It's going to take some time to evolve. We think what we've found is significant, and we're going to move quickly because we think moving quickly will help shareholders realize value. We're pretty excited about that. We did spend a bunch of money on the well, of course, right? When we went into the well, all of our exploration program, we assume that when we budget for exploration wells, we assume that they find nothing. Dry hole, it's pretty easy to have minimal evaluation and get off the well. When you find hydrocarbons, you typically spend a lot more time evaluating them. We collected whole core, we collected sidewall cores, we collected pressures and fluid samples in multiple zones and fairly advanced wireline logging programs. Because of that, the Bubale-1x well, when we finish it, instead of being around $65 million, we're probably going to be closer to $140 million. We're going to add another appraisal well. We're definitely, with this activity, going to go beyond the previously guided high end of our CapEx guidance. I don't have a new CapEx range to communicate today, but I believe on our August second quarter earnings call, we'll have done the work to have a better view toward how to guide a new CapEx range for our 2026 program. Got it. Just any sense in terms of timing of when you would have the appraisal well down, or is it too early to say? I think we'll move to the appraisal well in the coming weeks, and I would expect it to be less than three months to execute. Okay. Sometime later in the year, sometime probably third quarter, fourth quarter, we ought to have a result, depending on how it goes. I think it's likely that we'll need more appraisal, as I said, beyond that well, and so we'll probably be collecting data on Bubale well into next year before we kind of have enough information to know how to develop the field optimally and what's the resource range. Okay. Eric, you've had a really strong exploration track record going back to what you've been able to do in Vietnam, now a potentially significant discovery at Bubale. What's different at Murphy? What's been this really, really strong success with the drill bit? We had a fairly disappointing run in exploration at Murphy that we worked to turn around. If you go back and look at our activity, if you exclude Malaysia, where we had just tremendous repeat success, the rest of our exploration effort was pretty disappointing from 2015 through to the early 2020s. We recognized that and wanted to change something. We made a lot of change. We changed our leader of our exploration organization. We went out and intentionally recruited top exploration talent in key skill sets and brought them in and put them to work. Also importantly, we sort of changed the way we were prioritizing what we focus on and what we spend money on in our exploration effort. What we did was try to have a regional study-based approach to deciding where might there be oil, where does it make sense to target, and then collect additional data. Instead of drilling on limited data, we were very intentional about getting a comprehensive set of 3D seismic data everywhere, and also having all the reprocessed seismic data you need in order to evaluate whether or not you want to drill prospects. Having the discipline around regional study, driving specific block, driving specific data set, driving good work allows you to take really reasonable risk, very disciplined risk-taking, where the resource you're exposing yourself to and the cost it takes to do it makes sense. Our track record since then has been really good. If you look at our program in Vietnam and in the Gulf of America, and if you just leave off Côte d'Ivoire recently, over a three-year period, we had a 60% success rate exploring, which is really, really good. In Côte d'Ivoire, we had a three-well program. We had two unsuccessful wells. We had one discovery. That one in three is something you might expect typically. We've been fortunate in our Cuu Long Basin Vietnam blocks to have 100% success rate. That likely will not continue forever, but we're happy with it. Really quality team with a very disciplined approach, making good decisions and being restrained and taking the right risk makes a lot of sense, and that's led to our success, I believe. Yep. We get a lot of questions from how do you compete exploring with super majors? They have huge budgets and huge teams. You don't need huge budgets and huge teams. You need really skilled people with the right data and creative thinking in order to lead to discoveries, and we've shown that that can work. I'm going to perhaps try to put the cart before the horse, excuse me, one of the questions we've gotten from investors, what are some potential development options down the road? Obviously, you need successful appraisal here. I know Eni is active in the Côte d'Ivoire. Can you maybe discuss that and what are the timelines to kind of first oil if you do have a successful appraisal here? Sure. The most likely development scenario for Bubale is an FPSO with a gas pipeline to shore. Oil would be processed and stored in the FPSO for offtake by trading tankers. The gas would go to the shore and feed a domestic gas market, which is fairly strong. There's a lot of need for natural gas there. That is the most likely outcome. Obviously, if we found a very large volume, you're talking about FPSOs, not an FPSO. We're way too early in the game to say that we're anywhere close to that. I think we'll be happy to appraise and see what we have, that's the most likely outcome. There are potential scenarios where you can look to the market and say, "Is there an FPSO that's available to redeploy?" Which might be the permanent solution, or it might be an early solution in a phased development with something like Eni has done with Baleine. It depends on how big it is and how long it takes, basically, to drill all the wells and ramp up. That's kind of how we're thinking about it right now. We tend to be a pretty efficient player from moving from discovery to first production. When we look at benchmarking our recent developments to the last fields we did in Malaysia, the current development in Vietnam, and our most recent deepwater major project in the Gulf, we are executing from sanction to first oil in three years. Yeah. That's about 40% faster than the industry average. We're going to try to do the same here. If you look at the time it takes from discovery to appraise to field development plan and sanction all that, I think we're looking at a roughly five- to six-year timeline from discovery to first oil, with obviously a lot to learn before we can commit to do that. Okay. Given your drill bit success at Bubale, what does this mean for capital allocation going forward? Yeah. This year, we have very limited ability to flex our capital program except up. Right? Bubale additional spending and additional well at Bubale, which we think makes a lot of sense. The rest of our program, I don't want to say it's locked in, but our onshore program is almost behind us. Our offshore program is dominated by a really high-impact Chinook #8 well- Yeah which should come online in the second half of the year, and very limited other capital to do anything with. For this year, it's going to increase, and as I said, we'll end up probably with a new range of CapEx this year or later this year. In terms of what we do longer term, we're going to have some choices to make. Right? We've been managing our onshore business, both Eagle Ford and Tupper Montney to be effectively flat production year-over-year. It doesn't take huge capital to do that, but it is significant. We plan to explore additionally in Vietnam, and we'll have to make some choices about our future capital. For several years, we've been guiding a fairly narrow band of capital of our total company, and we've said that our Vietnam appraisal and development fit in nicely with that. The Vietnam program as Lac Da Vang development, that's Golden Camel. As it kind of winds down our Hai Su Vang, our Golden Sea Lion development spending will kind of come up. That Vietnam business can kind of fit in the overall range. A super active appraisal program in Côte d'Ivoire and development of success in Côte d'Ivoire probably doesn't fit in that range. We have to think about where we have trade-offs. I don't have answers for that yet. Obviously, the more we learn about Bubale, the more that we can kind of pin that down. I will just highlight that we have been over the years, especially with oil prices that are pretty supportive, we've been funding our capital program and had extra cash flow that we're using to do occasional stock buybacks. We had been on a debt reduction journey, and we're not in a rush to reduce our debt from where we are today. We're at about $1 billion of net debt, near-term use of cash for debt reduction is probably not material. Buying back our stock with cash flow is something that we'll be thinking about. If you think about an E&P company that trades roughly four years of cash flow, and you have a line of sight to a materially growing business in Vietnam in the 2030s and what looks like an emerging growing business in Côte d'Ivoire, those things we think will be valued more materially as they get closer to ramping up in terms of significant production. Using cash to buy back stock makes sense to reward our current shareholders. But we need to balance that with the need to spend money to appraise and develop Bubale. We have a lot of unanswered questions so far, but a lot of optionality, and we love that our portfolio provides that flexibility. Not many companies have an ability to pivot up or down an onshore business and an offshore business and choose to allocate exploration dollars to deepwater Gulf or Vietnam or Côte d'Ivoire. Yep. Great. How does this impact your plans for Paon in that neck of the woods? That's a really good question. In the Paon development, we had a work obligation to complete a field development plan, which we did, and we submitted that in 2025. In parallel with preparing that field development plan, we were negotiating with the Ivorian government on a gas pricing structure that would make sense to make Paon a commercial development on a standalone basis. We didn't get to an agreement because the government wasn't willing to pay what it took to make that happen. It's understandable for them because they did not want to pay more for the gas, which would lead to a higher electricity price, which they would pass on to a consumer. We were about to start drilling wells near Paon, what it looks like is going to happen is the Bubale-1X discovery, if we end up building an FPSO with a gas pipeline, that gas pipeline is going to go right by Paon. Paon has an ability to be commercial because of Bubale, because we're going to develop Bubale for oil and have gas as a secondary product. Paon is an oil field with a large gas cap. A lot of the volume at Paon is gas, combining the gas resources will help justify the cost of the gas pipeline, it should make the gas price required to make it viable a lot lower. That's work we have to do going forward, it should be really good for the country. Eric, hindsight is 20/20, you made the decision as CEO to maintain a 90% interest in Bubale and high working interest across your Côte d'Ivoire. Maybe when oil was below $60, maybe some were questioning that move, it seems like that was a great decision. Thoughts are on will you continue to appraise at this high working interest, or thoughts on maintaining that level of ownership? I'm pretty sure we'll continue to appraise at this ownership. I will tell you, after two dry holes or non-commercial wells, and having personally read the recommendation to not just maintain 90% working interest, but we're paying 100%, I felt pretty bad. Now I'm feeling pretty good about it. The decision around it was large resource exposure for relatively low well cost. It's the kind of risk you want to take relative to other opportunities in the portfolio. I'm pretty happy with that. I think the appraisal program almost certainly conducted our current ownership. I think it's likely, in most scenarios, that we end up developing at our current ownership as well. That's been our long-run norm. When we find something we really like in Malaysia, in our various blocks, we had big resources to develop at 85% and 80% working interest, and spending money on those was the best thing for our business. It's likely it heads that way, but if we end up with an extremely large resource, it may strain our ability to fund it. I will say, being the operator of Côte d'Ivoire, being the operator of Vietnam, and being the operator of almost everything in the Gulf of America, is a great position to be in because we're in control of the appraisal pace, the development pace, and we've seen some peers where they've been at the beck and call of super majors, and it can be challenging, and we're fortunate to be in control of the timeline. Yeah. Maybe one question I want to go back to on Bubale. Could you talk about the complexity of this reservoir that you've one penetration, but thoughts on that? Yeah. What we've found so far is very nice-looking light oil, moderate gas oil ratios, which I think is important. If you look at other Turonian discoveries in the country, they tend to be very gassy. I think the Maran South wells are very gassy. Paon is an oil field with a large gas cap, so gassy kind of volumes. What we've seen so far, and what we think we understand about Bubale so far, is oily with moderate GORs, which is really nice. It's what our regional studies suggested we would find, and it's nice to find that. Gas is great, but oil is better when you're in a frontier environment like this. Pretty happy. We need to appraise the field to understand the lateral extent of all the reservoirs. How do the reservoir properties vary over a very large area in multiple directions, up-dip, down-dip in both reservoirs? We drilled the well where we could stack two objectives. We didn't drill the well in the best Turonian location or the best Cenomanian location. Now we'll have to go drill other locations and see, from what we interpret on seismic to be potentially a thicker sand, is the sand actually like that, and what we're modeling in our seismic, does it prove out to be? In terms of reservoir complexity, honestly, we don't yet know. I think that these look like broad, well-developed kind of channel-type sands, fan-type systems, and they look really good. We won't really know more until we put another well or two in the ground and see how does it vary. The next obvious question is, for this play type, do you see other opportunities? I know Petrobras has been acquiring some acreage, Eni's in there. What kind of running room do you see here for other exploration prospects? We have quite a few remaining prospects in the same age intervals, and some other intervals like Albian intervals. We're going to learn from all of our three wells, what can we glean from all the results, and what does that mean for future prospectivity. I think that near-term focus will be on appraising Bubale and moving it to a development as quickly as possible. We'll likely be back here drilling additional exploration wells, testing the prospects that look really good after the data we've collected from this first three-well program. Okay, great. I'm going to shift gears a little bit. Let's talk a little bit about the Chinook number #8 well. This is going to be a really important well for your Gulf of America program. It sure is. We are progressing that per our plan. What we've been saying is the well is a fairly deep, significant Wilcox well. We're developing this well in an existing field, and it'll be tied back to an FPSO that we own. We're on track for that well to start producing in the second half of the year, which is in line with our plan. I'm very happy with the progress. That well is likely a 15,000-barrel oil equivalent per day on a gross basis when it comes online, and our ownership is high at 86.6%. We're thinking that likely a 10,000 to 12,000 barrel a day on a net basis. That's a pretty big add to our volume. Current Gulf of America production is around 60,000 barrels a day. This is a pretty big add, it'll help offset what is otherwise natural decline from all the other fields, be a pretty big oily add of volume in the second half of the year. Super happy with our progress, it's right on track. Okay. Just a quick update on the Gulf of America. You sanctioned Banjo and Cello, I believe. What are the things that should investors be on the lookout in terms of Gulf of America? Sure. On Banjo and Cello specifically, we're really happy with those. I think they help demonstrate that the strategy we put in place, which is a combination of more significant frontier and emerging exploration, combined with some near infrastructure exploration in the Gulf, is a thing that's working for us. Having a discovery that we announced early this year, sanctioned months later, with a target to bring them online in the fourth quarter of 2027. That's really industry-leading execution timeline. Those will contribute, we think about 4,000 barrels a day net to us in 2028 when they're online for a full year. Pretty happy with that. We have in our portfolio the same type of opportunity set that we'll continue to pursue, also an exploration portfolio in the Gulf that has an occasional larger kind of hub scale thing. We're pretty pleased with that. Also in the Gulf, outside of those exploration successes in our existing assets, we have a pretty significant high return oily opportunity set to continue to invest in additional wells, workovers, things like that keep our portfolio in the Gulf probably production roughly flat. It may increase and decrease from quarter to quarter, whatever. Between now and roughly the end of the decade, I think we'll see stability of that business. Effectively without more discoveries, we'll basically run out of things to do. That's okay. We're going to continue to explore, and I'm sure we'll find things as we've been doing. Also, one thing I think investors sometimes miss is when you're done spending capital in a business that's strongly free cash flow generating, like the Gulf of America, and all you have is production with no CapEx, you generate tremendous cash flow, which will be a good outcome. We've been heavily invested in the Gulf for decades. We're likely to continue to do that. Just our kind of core business we've identified now with even no more discoveries is a tremendous business. Great. Let's talk a little bit about Vietnam. Maybe an update on the LDV development project. Sure. Our Lac Da Vang and Golden Camel development is right on track, executing everything per our timeline. Key milestones that we've been asking people to pay attention to there would be the construction of the FSO, which is on schedule to sail to Vietnam in July. The construction of topsides modules in Vung Tau, Vietnam, on track to be heading out to the field for installation per schedule. Pipeline campaign just completed in the second quarter. We're drilling development wells. Everything is on track for first production in the fourth quarter. Very happy with how it's going. I think it's important. This is our first development project where we used a heavy Vietnamese oil field service, and they did a tremendous job. That's great because we have success at Hai Su Vang and three other Camel prospects in Block 15-1/05 that'll all get developed at some point, and we're very likely to use Vietnamese contractors. When you can get your first project, going to have success, it gives you confidence that when you sanction a development of Hai Su Vang and say you're going to deliver it in a certain time frame, you really have confidence in the workforce there to make it happen. We're super thrilled with how it's going so far. Yep. I was wondering if you could give an update on the Hai Su Vang appraisal program. I think you're keeping a couple of the wells as titles for now, HSV-3X and HSV-4X. Anything you could comment on those? Sure, I'm happy to. What we're doing, we had a discovery that we announced about a year and a half ago. We had a second well that gave us a lot of confidence in a larger resource. We went out and said, "Okay, we've tested a small part of the field. We need to design an appraisal program that tests the northeast extension of the field and the southwest extension of the field." It's a large structure. Couple holes tells you a little bit. You need to cover more of the field. You also need to test to see which of the potential reservoirs are prospective beyond kind of the primary reservoir. Our HSV-3X and HSV-4X wells are designed to do that. We're in the middle of that program. I think it's going well. We're learning what we sought to learn from the appraisal program. I think if things continue to go well, we will be able to give some updated guidance on resource range in our August second quarter earnings call. It's possible that we may need a little more time, and we may be a little later into the third quarter before we're done with everything and have done the work necessary to give an update there. Is it at that time that you'll be in a position to talk about development options and things like that? That's how we're currently thinking about it, is we'll move from that point to a field development plan, we'll probably try to sanction the development before the year-end 2027, try to bring it online as quickly as we can. Yep. My last question is, you've highlighted how Vietnam could be a 30- 50 equivalent kind of business, 30,000-50,000 barrels of equivalent business for Murphy. Talk to us about that kind of target and what that could mean for the story. Sure. I think that our Lac Da Vang and Golden Camel development that comes online later this year, as we continue to execute that into the second phase, it'll ramp up in production. We think that's 10,000-15,000 barrels a day when it peaks. It'll start to decline when we're done drilling, likely. What we think we know about Hai Su Vang will add to that. Depending on how big it is, you may be higher in that 30-50 range or lower in it, or you may be in that range for shorter period of time. Just those two fields I think gets you into the, when Hai Su Vang gets ramped up, you're probably in the 30-50 range. The other discoveries we made will likely continue to be bolted onto them. Tie back into the existing infrastructure. We're imagining a hub near Lac Da Vang and a hub near Hai Su Vang. Future and current already made discoveries will get bolted into them and help that runway go longer into the next decade. We think that Vietnam business has the potential to keep growing and look great for us. Great. Eric, thank you so much. Thanks so much. Thank you for your time today. Really appreciate it. I appreciate it.
Loading workspace