Greetings, welcome to the Novelis’ Q3 fiscal year 2025 earnings presentation. At this time, all participants will be in listen-only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone today should require operator assistance, please press star zero from your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce Megan Naficy with Investor Relations. Thank you, Megan. You may now begin. Thank you, Rob. Good morning or evening, everyone. Welcome to Novelis's Q3 fiscal year 2025 earnings conference call. Hosting today is Steve Fisher, our President and Chief Executive Officer, and Dev Ahuja, our Chief Financial Officer. Following the presentation, the call will be open to analysts and investors for questions. This conference call is being broadcast on the internet at novelis.com in the Investors section. A replay of this call will also be available on our website. Before I turn the call over to Steve, let me remind you that today's earnings release and presentation include forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, those factors identified in the release and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Today's presentation also includes certain non-GAAP measurements. Reconciliation of these measurements is provided in the financial statements included with our earnings release, as well as in the appendix of our presentation. Now I'll turn the call over to Steve. Thanks, Megan, and again, good morning or evening, everyone, and thanks for joining us today. Let's start with the highlights on slide three. Market demand broadly remains solid across our end markets. Demand and shipments to beverage packaging markets across regions continues to grow, offsetting some macro impact in muted specialty and automotive market demand. I'm also pleased to report that our Sierre, Switzerland, plant resumed full operations in the Q3 following unprecedented flooding in the region in June. However, as expected, Q3 Adjusted EBITDA was negatively impacted by higher aluminum scrap prices and, to a lesser extent, less favorable product mix. As reported in our last earnings call, increased competition and higher demand pull from China has led to significantly higher scrap aluminum prices, reducing the metal benefit we get from using scrap inputs in our production process. Novelis has been working on new technologies and partnerships that expand availability of scrap to protect recycling profitability over time. However, it will take time for those activities to scale and bear fruit. We do believe that these changes in the scrap market represent a structural shift and therefore we are driving a number of different actions on cost savings and operational efficiencies, portfolio optimization and procurement savings to mitigate margin pressures from the tightness in scrap markets. As these become more certain over the next few months, we will look forward to sharing more of the details on these actions with you at our next opportunity. We also continue to lead the industry in first mover investments to capture growing market opportunities and will leverage our decades of experience in ramping up new aluminum rolling and recycling capacity with our current projects underway. The Greenfield 600 KT Bay Minette plant in the U.S. remains on track, and our new automotive recycling center in Guthrie, Kentucky, continues to ramp up casting production. Meanwhile, in South Korea, we are now commissioning our previously announced $65 million capital investment to expand sheet ingot casting at our Ulsan Recycling Center. We cast our first automotive and can body sheet ingots in January and look forward to ramping up production over the next few months. The three large brownfield rolling debottlenecking investments underway also continue to make good progress. When complete, these combined will unlock nearly 200 KT of rolling capacity. The largest of these is a $150 million debottlenecking investment at our Logan plant in the U.S. that is on track to begin commissioning next quarter. I'd like to turn the call over to Dev for a more detailed review of our Q3 financial results. Thank you, Steve, good morning or good evening, everyone. Let's turn to slide six and our Q3 financial highlights compared to the prior year period. Net sales increased 4% to $4.1 billion, primarily driven by higher average aluminum prices, as total flat-roll product shipments were in line with the prior year at 904 kilotonnes. Continued strong customer demand drove higher beverage packaging shipments, which were offset by lower specialties and automotive shipments on muted market demand. Aerospace shipments were flat year-over-year. Q3 Adjusted EBITDA decreased 19% versus the prior year to $367 million. On flat shipments, Adjusted EBITDA per ton was also down 19% to $406. Net income attributable to our common shareholder was down 9% to $110 million. Net income, excluding special items, was down 32% to $119 million, primarily driven by lower Adjusted EBITDA. Let's turn to Adjusted EBITDA bridge for Q3 on slide six. As you can see in the bridge. The year-over-year decline in Adjusted EBITDA is primarily driven by higher operating costs resulting from higher scrap aluminum input prices. Results were also impacted by less favorable product mix from lower automotive and higher margin specialty products. FX, SG&A, and other items provided some favorability in the quarter, including a $15 million business interruption insurance recovery related to the Sierre outage earlier this year. This insurance claim offset the lagging impacts of lower automotive shipments as Sierre ramped back up in the quarter for no material overall impact in Adjusted EBITDA in Q3. With the Sierre plant now back to full operational capability, the EBITDA impact from this event is behind us. Let's look at Q3 performance year-over-year by segment, beginning on page eight. North America shipments were effectively in line with the prior year period, as higher automotive shipments were offset by lower specialty shipments. Demand for beverage packaging shipments remains strong, but shipments were flat compared to the prior year due to plant upgrades as part of the debottlenecking project at Logan. Adjusted EBITDA declined 26%, primarily driven by lower metal benefits from higher scrap pricing. In Europe, shipments decreased 2% as lower automotive shipments, driven by softer demand and low production levels, were partially offset by higher beverage packaging and specialty shipments. Adjusted EBITDA was down 17%, primarily driven by less favorable metal benefits from higher scrap pricing, lower volume, and unfavorable product mix. Turning to the next slide, Asia shipments were up 6% versus the prior year, driven mainly by higher beverage packaging shipments, partially offset by lower shipments of automotive, specialty, and aerospace products. Adjusted EBITDA decreased 7%, due mainly to less favorable metal benefits from higher scrap pricing and unfavorable product mix, partially offset by higher volume and favorable foreign exchange. Lastly, South America shipments were down 6%, driven by the timing of beverage packaging shipments. Adjusted EBITDA was down 19%, primarily driven by less favorable metal benefits from higher scrap pricing and lower volume. Now let's turn to cash flow on slide nine. Adjusted free cash flow for the first nine months of this fiscal year is an outflow of $950 million, compared to the prior year outflow of $570 million, mainly due to higher capital expenditures this year. Fiscal 2025 year-to-date capital expenditures total $1.2 billion, primarily to support planned strategic investments underway. For fiscal 2025, we continue to anticipate total capital expenditures will be on the lower end of a range of $1.8 billion-$2.1 billion, including approximately $300 million for maintenance CapEx. We continue to manage a strong improvement balance sheet, guided by a balanced capital allocation framework that allows for strategic capital investment while managing net leverage and adequate liquidity. We ended the quarter with a Net Leverage Ratio of 2.9 times and total liquidity of $1.6 billion. In January 2025, Novelis issued $750 million senior secured notes due January 2030. The proceeds were used to repay outstanding borrowings under our ABL revolver. Novelis has been long focused on maintaining a disciplined balance sheet. We intend to stay within a Net Leverage Ratio of around 2.5x during our strategic investment cycle. I'd now like to hand the call back to Steve for a market and business outlook. Thanks, Dev. As Dev said, let's now take a look at the end market outlook on slide 11. We believe our portfolio mix, diverse product line, and geographic footprint positions Novelis well in the current demand picture. Demand in our largest end market, aluminum beverage packaging, continues to be robust over the near and long term, driven by favorable consumption and sustainability trends. We continue to estimate long-term demand to grow at an approximately 4% compounded annual growth rate through 2031. The near-term outlook for automotive is a bit mixed. Favorable vehicle mix provides a steady to positive outlook for aluminum in North America, despite some moderated expectations for light vehicle build rates this year. The weaker macroeconomic environment is challenging the European auto market, and we see slower growth in China due to less favorable vehicle and OEM customer mix, where aluminum penetration is lighter. Broadly speaking, electric vehicles continue to gain share globally, but are growing at a more tempered pace. Longer term, we estimate automotive aluminum sheet demand to grow at an approximately 6% compounded annual growth rate between fiscal 2025 and 2030, supported by continued adoption of aluminum and favorable vehicle sales mix towards large luxury and electric vehicles, which use a higher share of aluminum. Demand for premium aerospace plate and sheet remains solid over the long term, reflecting strength from growing OEM build rates, supported by multiyear backlogs for aircraft deliveries. Broader aerospace supply chain constraints are limiting current OEM production rates. Lastly, for specialties, we anticipate seeing typical seasonal improvement in demand in the next couple of quarters. Longer term, building and construction demand is improving, with declining interest rates expected to be a favorable list ahead. However, with the global automotive industry a bit softer, we are seeing some impact on demand for automotive-related specialty products, such as EV batteries and truck and trailers. Turning to Slide 12. We continue to make great progress with the $4.1 billion greenfield rolling and recycling facility under construction in Bay Minette, Alabama. As a highly sophisticated and automated plant, Bay Minette will be a true plant of the future that we believe will improve efficiency, operating leverage, and the sustainability of our products. Construction at Bay Minette continues on track, with steel installation and equipment foundation work rapidly progressing. Our projected timeline remains intact, with commissioning of the plant expected to begin in the second half of calendar year 2026. Approximately 2/3 of the production at this 600 KT plant will support domestic beverage packaging customers, as local demand currently outpaces local supply. The remaining capacity will primarily be targeted to the automotive market, with flexibility for specialties production. Novelis has a proven record of delivering high-quality products and services to our customers, and we have secured long-term contracts for all the new beverage packaging capacity at this plant. Additionally, we continue to make good progress on the automotive contracting side and are confident we will have this finished prior to the plant coming online. We intend to fund this project through internally generated cash flows and debt financing. Of the total project cost, $1.3 billion has been spent through the end of Q3. In summary, market demand is broadly resilient, with strong growth in beverage packaging driven by underlying consumption and sustainability trends. The substantial increase in demand for scrap aluminum and higher scrap prices is impacting margins. We believe we are in a solid position, given our established global scrap supply network and efficient recycling operations. Novelis has been working on new technologies and partnerships that expand availability of scrap, as well as driving a number of different actions on cost savings and operational efficiencies to mitigate margin pressures from the tightness in scrap markets. It is difficult to predict metal market dynamics and the timing of our mitigation actions. We do have better visibility into fiscal Q4. We anticipate improved performance in Q4 compared to Q3, and that Q4 will be more comparable to Q2 of fiscal 25 EBITDA results. The improvement quarter-over-quarter will primarily be driven by seasonally high volume, but also benefiting from more favorable product mix and new contract pricing that took effect at the start of the calendar year. While we anticipate scrap prices will remain elevated in Q4, we believe higher scrap usage should provide a more favorable metal benefit versus Q3. Novelis's unmatched scale, footprint, and sustainability attributes position us well to navigate today's markets and provide the high recycled content products our customers want. At the same time, we continue to make great progress advancing our investment at Bay Minette and other high return expansions underway that will further strengthen our ability to meet growing demand and drive shareholder returns. With that, we're happy to take your questions, and I'll turn it back over to the operator. Thank you. At this time, we'll be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you'd like to ask a question today, please press star one from your telephone keypad, and a confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you'd like to withdraw your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. In order to allow as many as possible to ask questions, we ask you please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Thank you. We'll pause a moment to assemble the queue. Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Amit Dixit with ICICI Securities. Please proceed with your questions. Hi. Good evening, everyone, and good morning, wherever you are. I have one question on the Q4 FY25 performance. You mentioned that it would be similar to Q2 FY25. Are we saying in a way that the operating cost or the aluminum scrap spread, the adverse impact is behind us, now? Yeah. I'll start and then let Dev talk a little bit about dynamics between the improvement in Q3 and Q4. One of the improvements is not associated with overall scrap pricing in the market. We think that it will stay elevated through Q4. Hard to predict in the short and medium term exactly where scrap pricing will fall out. That is not a driver. What I did say, though, is that- Q4 will have much higher volume as compared to Q3, and that is operating leverage, number one. Number two, we have new contracts getting activated from January 1, and this is mainly beverage packaging, which are at higher price. We have been consistently telling you that beverage packaging pricing is going to be a positive on a continuing basis. That is the trigger number two. The third is what Steve said already about recycling. More recycled volume, not necessarily spread, and more automotive and that helps us with the mix. These are the factors that will drive Q4, which is going to be much better than Q3. In Q3, remember, we also have a lot of plant maintenance shutdowns across the system, and that also tempers the profitability of Q3 seasonally. Those factors don't apply to Q4, hence the expectation of a rebound in EBITDA. That's really what it is. Got it. A follow-up here. In the operating costs, in that EBITDA bridge, there is a negative bar of $80 million in operating costs. How much would you attribute it to the adverse impact of the Indian scrap, right? A good bulk of the impact is coming from an adverse metal situation. You can say that that's the largest single driver in that number. Okay, got it. Thank you. I will get back in the queue. Thanks, and all the best. Good. Thank you. Our next questions are from the line of Sumangal Nevatia with Kotak Securities. Please just ask your questions. Yeah, good morning. Thank you for the chance. My first question is on the Q3 performance. We're seeing overall, $100 kind of impact, I guess, essentially or even versus last year. Is it possible to give some quantification or bifurcation of what is the impact of scrap spreads, product mix and seasonality between these things on the overall contraction? Yes. You're right, Sumangal. I mean, 499 per ton, going to 406. I think our answer will be more or less, along the lines that I mentioned earlier. The biggest impact in that is scrap prices, and some lower volumes. Besides that, lower than expected volumes. Besides that, it is really that, while beverage packaging is doing extremely well, automotive is muted and specialties is muted, that impacts the mix. Outside of scrap prices and some muted mix impacts, there is nothing else to add,? Like, volumes are similar, that you can easily see. It's really just these two factors that we are mentioning. Okay. Can we say that majority of the $90-$100 is because of scrap spread and only marginally because of, I mean, some color you can add between these two, how to distribute? You can say that the majority of that is because of higher scrap prices. We should have done a little more on boots, and that will come back in Q4. We will start seeing more volumes because there is some better availability. Our recycling center will ramp up in Guthrie. The short answer to your question is, it's okay to assume that the largest part of that is really elevated scrap prices in Q3. Understood. Understood. I mean, going forward, in our opening remarks, you mentioned that we are seeing this as a structural issue as far as scrap spreads are concerned. In fourth quarter, because of the repricing and better volume, we are kind of expecting a recovery back to previous levels of close to $500. I mean, do we have any visibility or any, I mean, for FY 2026, are these things sustainable? Is the fourth quarter profitability recovery sustainable, despite all the scrap headwinds which we are witnessing? Maybe it's very hard in the short and medium term to be able to predict where the overall higher scrap prices will ultimately settle. We do believe that they will settle structurally at a different level than what we've seen over the past five years. We started to see the scrap prices increase in Q2, but we didn't fully see the full impact of that. In Q3, we did see the full impact. We are not assuming that we will see significant reduction in scrap prices in Q4 or through our next fiscal 26 period. ` Tags. I will process the text according to the instructions, focusing on removing filler sounds, false starts, and stuttered repetitions, while maintaining all other words and formatting as specified. Here's the breakdown of changes: W hat we will be doing is continuing to focus on all the things we have been focused on, associated with, um, partnering with partnering on technologies getting more available scrap, the way we work with our supply chains continue to ensure that availability and ultimately some moderation in pricing occurs over a period of time. Okay, got it. One just last question. There's been a lot of news and developments on the tariffs in U.S. I mean, there's a lot of uncertainty as well. Can you explain in different scenarios, how does it impact us in terms of raw material costs, profitability, and overall earnings, in case these high tariffs in U.S. continues? Sumangal, I mean, as you rightly recognize, there are many scenarios around tariffs, but let me just tell you, what we see, from where we are today. There is a threat over the weekend, by the president, here, that he will levy tariffs. Maybe the announcement will come even today. Going by historical experience, here is what happens: When tariffs come broadly on aluminum, Midwest Premium basically goes up dollar to dollar, right? That part gets taken care of in the Midwest Premiums, and in a way, it is even a bit of a positive for us on recycling. The other is cross-border tariffs between Canada and the U.S., and we have goods traveling, between Canada and U.S. There, our historical experience is that we get exemptions when we apply. I mean, this happened with the previous time the administration was in. We are pretty confident that while there will be some short-term noise around it, but exemptions are granted in all the deserving cases. Our case is a deserving case. There is not enough aluminum here. We are pretty confident that we will be able to apply for and get exemptions. There will be a bit of a transition cash flow impact. That is the scenario that we see. Understood. I'll join the queue back. Thank you so much for the answers. All the best. Thank you. Our next questions are from the line of Amit Marfatia with Axis Capital. Please proceed with your questions. Hi. Thanks for the opportunity. As regards the scrap prices, and, it's continuing, like, stickiness at the higher end, I was just wondering, given that the beverage can market is quite strong and tight as you've been highlighting, how likely is it that in the contracts, when they come up for renegotiation, then you are able to renegotiate upwards, kind of to protect you, for to pass on some of these cost impact to customers, particularly given the tightness in the market aspect? As we said, the overall growth that we see in the beverage packaging market is strong globally. Consumption sustainability trends driving it. We see that in the 4% compounding annual growth rate over the next 5 years. And part of that is the sustainability attributes of a beverage packaging with high recycled content, which our customers very much appreciate versus other packaging materials. That is clearly one of the drivers associated with increased scrap prices in the market. As we continually work with our customers on their value propositions from a commercial standpoint, we need to make sure that is fully understood and that we overall protect our margins as we work with what our customers ultimately value in their products. Those contracts obviously are signed in multiple years and over a period of time, so we'll have to work through that. Ultimately, in the near term, what we can be focused on is cost efficiencies, operating efficiencies, and some of these other initiatives that can offset some of the margin deterioration in the near term that we're seeing with the higher scrap spreads or scrap prices. In regard to Bay Minette, like, would you still think that the maintain IRR is possible with the current situation on stack, prices, given it's a 100% recycling facility? I wouldn't worry about Bay Minette, because as we've always said, we understood that there would be impact in overall scrap prices and had factored that in to our overall proposition as we thought about it. as we anticipated this. From that standpoint, we believe that this is an absolute, still very strong, strategic asset. The efficiencies it'll drive, the ability to have higher operating efficiencies, lower labor costs, the higher contract pricing that we've talked about still, This is a very, very attractive investment from the falls. By the way, you had to mid-teens IRR. I think we just need to kind of clarify that the mid-teen IRR was when we had the earlier project cost, but a year ago we announced a revised project cost. We said double digit IRR. just need to kind of revise that expectation, which we have been giving for about a year. Sure. Thank you very much. Our next questions are from the line of Aditya Dole with Axis Securities. Please proceed with your questions. Yeah, thanks for this opportunity. My question is with respect to the earlier question on tariffs. What I understood from your answer was that, the Midwest Premiums are increasing, and that will be offsetting our probable impact of increase in the raw material cost, if any, maybe both on the scrap and aluminum scraps. Is that what you said, means, the Midwest Premium will offset whatever tariff impact on the cost side? Yeah. Let me just explain. Say that there is a tariff that is applied on imports. What happens is that that increase, or rather that tariff cost, typically would get built in into the Midwest Premium. As very well, that all our contracts are pass-through contracts. Whatever is the impact on tariff, of tariff, on aluminum prices and imports would get offset by the Midwest Premium, is what I said. Yes? The other thing that I said is that we have a plant in Kingston, Ontario, and we have products moving between our US and Canadian plants. When duty comes, technically there will be a duty on the flow between Canada and the US. We do not expect that that will last for too long. That is a negotiation between the two administrations, so it can be pretty short-lived, from the last experience, number one. Number two, that, exemptions are granted in all the deserving cases based on our last experience, and we have a high confidence that we will get these exemptions, for inter-border flows. Yeah, understood. That's helpful. Similarly for the other geographies, with respect to the premium, for example, for European Rotterdam premium, will it also reflect some of the impact of these tariffs? As we have been reading that the Rotterdam European metal premium is coming down. Is there any impact on other geographies with respect to metal premium? Well, it just depends upon the development in each geography. if it is between Canada and the U.S., that is more specific to these two geographies. A lot depends upon whether there are other tariffs that get and that get levied. The general principle you have to think about is that when tariffs come, premiums adjust themselves. If there is any tariff in Europe, for example, retaliatory tariff, for example, in Europe, same will happen there as well, and it will be reflected in the ECBP. That is generally how it works. Okay, understood. Thanks a lot. Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Vikash Singh with PhillipCapital. Please proceed with your question. Good evening, sir, thank you for the opportunity. Just wanted to understand, since the scrap prices are still, basically scrap spread is still going down, and we have a lag, a pretty long lag. You just remarked that the majority of the scrap spread impact has been factored in in 3Q. Is my understanding correct, that we have reached the bottom of the scrap spread squeeze and 4Q and 1Q of FY 26 would not see any further downside to this? What we're saying is, we believe that, yes, we're seeing kind of the bottoming out of where scrap spreads are based on efficiency of assets and profitability across the entire system for recycling. We do think that we're getting near the top of that. Still, it's very hard to predict in the very near term, medium term, exactly where all the spreads, all the scrap pricing will finally land and moderate at. We do think it is a structural difference from where we've been in the previous 5+ years. We're preparing ourselves, have been preparing ourselves, for the notion of higher scrap prices as we strengthen our supply chains with our suppliers of scrap, as we find different types of scrap in the market to utilize for our products, as we work with technologies across our systems and at the recyclers to ensure sortation and ability to consume dirtier scraps. It's education and advocacy across places where there's low recycling rates, such as in the US. In the meantime, we will be very focused on what else we can do as a company to protect those margins, as we do think they will continue to be pressured for the foreseeable future. That's the cost efficiencies, the operational efficiencies, procurement savings, and other things that we're actively working on and look forward to sharing more in our next call. Sir, just a follow-up. Wouldn't the tariff make it difficult to source scrap, and this scrap spread should getting squeezed further? Just wanted to understand what is the thought process behind your whole thinking of scrap spread bottoming out? Yeah, I didn't catch the question, as far as what the question was. Can you repeat? I just. If this tariff goes through, so wouldn't it, sourcing scrap would become more costlier and that would squeeze out scrap spread further? Is that understanding is correct? No. If that is true, then how we can mitigate that? Yeah, no scrap. Most of scrap is domestically sourced inside the region, so it would not be subject to tariffs. Anything that is imported, for instance, into the U.S., if the new tariff regime goes on, is exactly the same as importing prime aluminum, as well, as Dev was highlighting. That ultimately, the shortage of scrap coming to the U.S. will get repriced, or the tariffs will get repriced in the Midwest Premium. The overall pricing associated with tariffs, we believe, will be minimally impacted on the scrap business. Understood, sir. Just one last clarification. You said in the remark that Midwest Premium increase would actually help you in offsetting some of the scrap prices. If I remember, 2018, when the first term tariffs came in, there was no instrument to hedge the premiums, and that has led to a negative impact on our performance. If you could just reconcile where I'm going wrong, it would be helpful. Your question is that back in 2018, there was a negative impact, you are saying? Yes, for the Midwest Premium increase, because there was no hedging instrument available. Why it would be different this time? Well, I mean, I don't know if there was a difficulty in procuring either prime or scrap because of the duties. What we can tell you is that even back in time, premiums went up very significantly, and when premiums go up, it is net-net beneficial because the dollar spread on scrap actually become positive. Once again what we can tell you is that except for some short-term noise, we do not expect tariffs to cause any structural issue in our, in our margins. We do not think that that is a big risk factor net-net. There will be definitely some short-term noise until the time the exemption procedures come into play or the countries negotiate a new USMCA, for example, a Mexico, canada trade regime. That is really what our net-net expectation is. Understood, sir. That's all from my side. Thank you. Sure. Our next question comes from the line of Abe Landa with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question. Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. Just maybe just a quick clarification question first on housekeeping. You said that 4Q is going to be similar to 2Q. On an Adjusted EBITDA per ton basis, does that mean it's closer to the reported $489 per ton, or is it closer to that Adjusted EBITDA ex-flood impact of closer like low $500s per ton? Yeah. I will not get into that much of a specific guidance, but you can expect that there will be a similar impact on Q4, so you can really think that Q2 and Q4, even on a per ton basis, will directionally be along the same lines. Okay. Maybe just talking about the scrap impact on the four regions. Do you have a specific like EBITDA per ton impact by region and overall? Maybe leading, tacking on to that is, are we seeing the scrap spread essentially compress in each region? I know last call we're kind of talking about it's mostly a North American and Asia phenomenon, we've seen some articles about Brazil and Europe. Like, are you starting to see more of that kind of scrap spread pressure moving to South America and Europe? Well, I mean, scrap supply chains are global, when you think about scrap, the markets basically are efficient, and they kind of sort of have similar directional impacts across all regions. So it is, you cannot isolate scrap challenges to one region for that. The markets are efficient, number one. Number two, that, no, we cannot provide you guidance or numbers of spread impact by each region. You will see a general overall compression, and the broad statement that we can make is that that reflects scrap pricing pressure across regions. I will only add one more thing to this, that the VAT abolition in China has resulted in some mitigation happening already in Asia, at least in terms of better availability of scrap. As that happens, it naturally does temper down some of the pressure on pricing when availability goes up. We are still watching the impact of that because, again, repeating that scrap markets are globally efficient, and as the impact of the Chinese VAT abolition starts to fully play in, that should be a positive. When do we have that? How much do we have? That's something that we will watch, but that is a meaningful positive development for the scrap markets, impact yet to be assessed and fully seen. I guess maybe asking that question another way. Like, it seems like scrap initially hit North America. Are we going to. You kind of mentioned that the scrap spread tightness is kind of reaching, almost like peak level. Should we kind of see a flow kind of more so into the other regions where it hit later, or is it gonna still hit? Are we kind of like at peak debt compression levels in each of the four regions? Yeah. As Dev said, and you're right for pointing out, the efficiency of the scrap markets to be able to arbitrage globally is very efficient. While we did see initial pressures in the early indications last summer coming in Asia and North America, those markets in South America, Europe, and other places have also risen. I think our guidance is that we believe globally now, kind of where we sit today, we believe that is getting near the peak. Again, hard to, for us to sit here short and medium term and see bits of fluctuations up and down from there. We believe that's kind of, getting to the peak, levels, of which it's hard to predict when some of that might moderate back down. Remember one more thing, because I know that you have been pinpointing on North America. One of the challenges of North America is the low recycling rates, and that does pose an extra challenge. I mean, as demand grows, as consumption of beverage cans grows and recycling rates are not as high, rather significantly lower, it does create a challenge. That is where we are working very actively. We were already working, not waiting for this new thing to happen on scrap. We were already working on technologies to use dirtier scrap, on advocacy and all of that. There is scrap being generated, but that's dirtier scrap, and a lot of scrap goes into landfill, and we are trying to mitigate that through a number of mid to long-term actions, which will give us results,? The specific North America situation is something that we are actively working to mitigate because of the challenges of low recycling rates. That's something to keep in mind that over time we will see the positive impact of that. That's all very helpful commentary. Maybe last one. You said on your prepared remarks that Bay Minette was gonna be funded with internal cash flows, but then also debt financing. We saw what you did earlier this year. Maybe what is your current refinancing and debt-raising plans? Yeah. as you kind of build out Bay Minette in fiscal 26 and 27? Well, no, we kind of always maintain that Net Leverage will go higher, driven by Bay Minette. A very substantial part of Bay Minette will be funded through internal cash flows, but we will need some increase in Net Leverage through additional borrowing. We have raised $750 million of senior notes in the month of January. Towards the end of this year, we could be raising another amount in that range, and that should be largely it in terms of our ability to fund Bay Minette, because the rest will be using internal cash generation or a little bit of ABL, et cetera. All in all what we can tell you is that our Bay Minette project funding will mean that our net leverage will go up at peak to 3.5x, and that is what happened over the next 2 fiscal years. After the peaking of 3.5, likely FY27, after that, we will start delevering again. That is generally the direction you should take. On your question about refi, yes. I mean, we have some debts coming up for refi. Some of it is secured loans, like there is a Term Loan A of $750 million, which is falling current later this year. We are going to be actively in the market, more in a sooner than a later time frame to refi that. Will come the senior notes, which also we are confident that we will be able to refi that a little later in the year. We have minimal concerns as regards the ability to be able to fund or refi our debts. Great. Thank you very much for taking my questions, this morning. You're welcome. Our next question is from the line of Tarang Sarawagi with Old Bridge Asset Management. Please proceed with your questions. Hi, good evening. Just a couple of questions. since the current state of scrap market appears to be structural and pervasive across the industry, the return metrics of the industry generally have not been very lucrative, how amenable are customers in absorbing this cost push that you're bearing, because whatever is being felt in scrap appears to be an industry-wide phenomenon? Typically, if all of this was to be the case, when will it start showing up, if at all, through a better pricing environment? Just to be clear, even at the current prices, recycling margins are positive for Novelis. We do make money. It's just the comps, as we think about where they were in previous quarters to where they are today. Novelis, as we've talked about, is very well positioned with our global footprint and our asset efficiency to continue to be profitable, associated with our recycling business on a go-forward basis, and all the actions we've been talking about that will continue to help to moderate the pricing, and other actions that we need to take in the near term from cost and operational efficiency standpoint. Yes, the driver of the demand for scrap is driven by our customers, by the need for a high recycled content in beverage packaging and other products that we sell into the marketplace as well. As those customers are driving for lower carbon, higher recycled content, naturally, there has to be an understanding of the overall margin profitability associated with that value proposition. Those are conversations that have been occurring, are part of current contracts, and will continue to occur over the next several years, as we continue to provide the products of which our customers are asking for. Got it. Steve, just a question. I mean you mentioned that new pricing is kicked in from the start of this calendar year. My sense is when terms for this new pricing may have been negotiated, the current environment would have probably not been factored in. Just wanted to get a sense on what were the considerations that would have driven the price rise? Second, are you seeing this price rise specifically in your beverage can portfolio, or would it be safe to presume that it's pervasive across your portfolio or across business segments that you cater to? From a pricing standpoint, the significant step up in pricing is certainly associated primarily with beverage packaging because of the tightness in the overall market globally for high recycled content, low carbon material to compete against other materials. Certainly, while maybe we didn't see the magnitude and the timing exactly of some of the increase in scrap prices that we've been talking about, we did see directionally that this would also come into the business. As we thought about that, obviously that came into a factor as we thought about how to price our conversion costs associated with these contracts. We will continue to do that going forward. Again, what we can focus on probably more urgently in the near term is what we can ultimately control, which is our costs, our operating efficiencies, further portfolio optimization, and these are things that we are gonna look forward to laying out and talking with all of you when we have the next opportunity. As it relates to the evolution of commercialization of the pricing, that will take a little bit more time, and we'll continue down that road. Got it. Last question, just, housekeeping of sorts. Typically, for how long are these, contracts set? I mean, when do they come up for renegotiation? Is it once in every six months, once in a year? How should we look at it? The contracts are always coming up, but the contract length themselves are typically for beverage packaging, 3-5, automobile would be in that same area. Specialties are shorter, 1, maybe sometimes 2-year contracts, aerospace, a little bit longer. Because of the size and scale of Novelis, we always have contracts coming up for negotiation on an annual basis. Okay. Thank you. Have a nice day. Thank you. The next question is from the line of Raashi Chopra with Citi. Please proceed with your questions. Thank you very much. My first question is coming back to the scrap spreads you mentioned that this is potentially the bottom. Just wondering, will there be any further tightness in scrap availability when Steel Dynamics plant for various commissions in Sinton, Texas? Yeah. From an availability standpoint, we're not worried. We have very strong relationships, strong supply chains. From availability to feed, our facilities, that is not a concern. It's more on the pricing, side, and our ability to see where that market will ultimately land. That could be a concern on that sort of pricing, I mean, the tightness creating a pricing pressure for them? Yeah, as I said before, even currently today, under the current pricing that we're seeing in the marketplace, we still have a positive margin associated with recycling scrap. It's just in comparison to where the historical pricing has been in the margins has changed. We do not believe our view is that we're getting near the top of the overall scrap pricing cycle. Of course, in the short term, medium term, it's hard to predict exactly where that will land. We think we're nearing that peak. Okay. Thank you. The next question on these, again, on the tariffs, right? while you're expecting that there's just going to be noise for a brief period, and there will be exemptions, hypothetically obviously, the premiums go up should the tariffs be imposed, and that, in a way, is positive for recycling, as you mentioned. just in case there are no exemptions in a hypothetical scenario, what would that mean from a demand perspective, given that you continue to have contracts coming up around the year? How would that impact your demand, again, margins on these contracts, et cetera? a scenario where there are no exemptions and the tariff just continues, I would say is very improbable. I mean, remember what we are talking about here. There is $billions, hundreds of billions of dollars of trade flow that happens between Canada, U.S., or Mexico and U.S. The entire auto industry has their supply chains between these two countries. It's a highly, I mean, I would put the chances of that at very, very low. To say that there will be tariffs and no exemptions, I mean, all these are almost kind of, at this moment, not possible scenarios. I don't know whether we really sort of want to worry about those kind of things. The impact on the growth of all the countries in the region is going to be very severe. None of the governments are going to live with that. Let's just believe that this is going to be short-term noise. We have the ability to absorb the short-term noise. We do not see any big crisis arising from that. We feel good that we have the ability to mitigate it. We feel good about exemptions as well. If actually these exemptions come through, then in theory, the the up move in the premiums is actually positive for you? It will be a beneficial thing, actually. Yeah. Okay. By the way, I mean, although, we haven't focused too much on that, the China tariffs in general are also beneficial. overall the fact that what you remember about us is the following, that we have domesticated all the supply chains in every market where we operate. We have local manufacturing, for the largest part, the only exception being that until Bay Minette comes, we have some need for import from other regions. Overall, our whole strategy for the last many years has to get to domesticating supply chains, setting up local manufacturing capacity like Bay Minette. We have actually moved in the right direction, particularly looking at all the things that are happening today on trade and tariffs. Understood. Thank you. Welcome. Thank you. Thank you. Our last question is from the line of Ritesh Shah with Investec. Please proceed with your question. Hi, a couple of questions. First, dear, I miss you. I think you did indicate that this was one of the key variables mitigating on scrap. I missed that point. If you could please highlight what that point was, because I did also hear that you said that this is probably the bottom that we are looking at on the LME scrap spread. I'm not sure exactly, but maybe just to repeat again, We do think that the where scrap spreads have moved over the last couple of quarters is a new structural shift versus what we've seen in the past five years. In the near term, we don't see scrap pricing coming back off of these levels, hard to predict in the short near term. While we will continue to work on all actions associated with ensuring that we can find more scrap, different types of scrap, using technologies, increasing recycling rates, all that does take some time. Then what we will be, have been and will continue to accelerate on, is on our cost focus and operational efficiency, portfolio optimization and some procurement savings. All of which will help to bring margins back in line. That will take some time. We'll talk more about that in detail at our next opportunity, we can lay those out in more details. Sure. I'll just rephrase my question. Are there any other external variables that we have encountered which gives us comfort about, probably LME scrap spread, the tightness is actually behind us? Anything on tariffs, trade flows, which actually gives us that comfort? No, there are no other big variables. I think it is basically, the big variable that has moved the market is really, number 1, China. China really starting to import a lot of scrap, so they have opened up their market. That was the big change, number 1. Number 2, that new capacities are coming in for recycling. that will create some tightness in the market, but that is something we were always prepared for. Remember that. We always said that that is going to happen, and there was a whole pipeline of actions that we already launched. Beyond this, there is nothing more to add. The tightness is there to stay. We, as Steve already said, we think that there is not much more beyond this, and we are kind of seeing a bit of a bottoming out, and we are dealing with it through other initiatives outside scrap. we are going to be really working on operating efficiencies and costs and keep watching the space because we will come back on that to you to talk about it soon. All right. Just a related question: Are we hedging procurement of scrap by any means or maybe best premiums wherein we can actually lock in those benefits going forward? we do some opportunistic hedging on scrap. Thereby we try to lock when we see the opportunity of elevated premiums and on premiums the market is not so developed. We do some hedging, certainly on LME, when we see elevated levels of LME. To some extent, we do try to hedge or protect ourselves. In general, I mean, we have been saying that in many calls that we have a very defensive hedging strategy. We don't speculate on hedging. We generally have a defensive strategy, so that works for us. Yeah. Sure. You indicated one of the variables as we go from Q3 to Q4 was higher recycling rates. Is it possible you can quantify what is the current recycling rates, specifically in North America right now, and whether we see it going say, into Q4 and for the next fiscal? We don't talk about recycling rates by region, but that our recycled content is 63%. Higher recycling rates, we said there'll be higher scrap consumption, because in Q3 we took a dip on scrap consumption. In Q4, we will have a relatively higher scrap consumption, that is going to help overall in terms of driving better EBITDA. That is what we said. In the Q4, scrap consumption will represent kind of a normalized scrap consumption. It will go up even further as both the recycling facilities, i.e., Guthrie and ulsan start ramping up. There'll be more recycled content. In short, the best way to think about this is that there'll be more recycled content. Our strategy is to keep driving higher recycled content, which will kind of mitigate a bit of the spread challenge that we have over time. Sure. just last question to summarize, Dev, what you indicated, I think for scrap, it's pretty much at the bottom. we are looking at premiums to more of a federal tariffs come in. the question, are we looking to reinstate the guidance for, say, FY 2026, FY 2027? if not, what are the variables that we are waiting for, which will give us more confidence on putting out the guidance? we've talked about the challenges in the short, medium term to provide any specific guidance. We're gonna control what we can control. We think there's a lot of opportunity to improve margins associated with the actions that we'll be outlining in our next opportunity with you all. Longer term, which we don't have any period on, the building blocks that we've always talked about to higher EBITDA per ton of $600 are still intact, and we'll continue to execute against that over the next several years, including day and night, operating efficiencies, continue to work on a number of actions across the metal space as well. We are confident in the longer term and the building blocks to return back into or to increase overall EBITDA per ton to that $600 per ton. Sure. That was very helpful. Thank you so much. All the very best. Thank you. Thank you. At this time, I'll turn the floor back to Mr. Fisher for closing remarks. Thank you, operator, and thanks to everyone again for attending our call today. I just again say our unmatched geographical footprint, our in-market presence, positions us well to capture what we see as a growing market demand while facing the challenges we talked about on the scrap market. We're stay laser focused on operational and cost efficiency initiatives that are underway to offset these pressures while executing against our capital investment plan that is underway. Thanks for your support, and we look forward to providing another update on our business and financials on our next fiscal year end earnings call in May. This does conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines at this time.
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