Good morning. My name is Lisa, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the PotlatchDeltic third quarter 2022 conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star then the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press the pound key. Press star one again. Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Jerald Richards, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, for opening remarks. Sir, you may proceed. Thank you, Lisa. Good morning, and welcome to PotlatchDeltic's third quarter 2022 earnings conference call. Joining me on the call is Eric Cremers, PotlatchDeltic's President and Chief Executive Officer. This call will contain forward-looking statements. Please review the warning statements in our press release, on the presentation slides, and in our filings with the SEC regarding the risks associated with these forward-looking statements. Also, please note that a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures can be found on our website at www.potlatchdeltic.com. I'll turn the call over to Eric for some comments, and then I will review our third quarter results and our outlook. Thank you, Jerry. We reported third quarter total adjusted EBITDA of $101 million after the market closed yesterday. That makes 8 out of the last 9 quarters that our quarterly EBITDA has exceeded $100 million. We are having another really strong year with EBITDA of $522 million through the first three quarters. Our financial results reflect the strength of our leverage to lumber strategy. Our wood product segment's adjusted EBITDA was $31 million in the third quarter. Lumber prices were lower than last quarter as expected, but they are still at attractive levels. The composite price has stabilized over the last couple of weeks and has increased modestly to $494 per thousand board feet after declining 12 weeks in a row. Lumber futures are also back above $500 per thousand board feet. We continue to expect that lumber prices will remain above long-term averages. We shipped 265 million board feet of lumber in the third quarter, which was 11 million feet more than we shipped in Q2. Transportation was a significant risk when we entered the third quarter, but availability of rail cars and trucks has improved considerably. We successfully completed the rebuild of our Ola, Arkansas sawmill and restarted the large log line on schedule in the third quarter. The startup phase is underway, and the mill is expected to reach its 150 million board feet annual capacity on a run rate basis by the end of 2022 as planned. As a reminder, Ola's rebuild also significantly lowers the mill's cash processing costs and improves its log recovery. Our Timberlands segment generated adjusted EBITDA of $65 million in the third quarter. Our Southern Timberlands team continued to take advantage of favorable logging conditions and strong log demand, resulting in harvest volumes that exceeded our expectations. Notably, our team set a quarterly harvest record for our Southern Timberlands business. The addition of CatchMark's Timberlands will provide another boost in the fourth quarter. Idaho harvest volumes were seasonally higher this quarter but fell short of our plan primarily due to contractor availability issues. Our Idaho team is working hard to address the issues, and they have a plan in place to reduce the harvest shortfall in the fourth quarter. Our Real Estate segment had another solid quarter with adjusted EBITDA of $14 million. On the rural side of the business, we sold 1,600 acres at nearly $4,000 an acre. The development side of our real estate business remains strong. Residential lot inventory in our Chenal Valley Master Plan community remains at low levels, and we continue to have good take-up on our lot offerings. We also completed over $6 million of commercial land sales in the quarter, which averaged $183,000 per acre. That is 3 quarters in a row that we have closed commercial sales in Chenal, resulting in total revenue $11 million thus far this year. Turning to housing, we continue to believe that the backdrop is favorable over the long term. There is a fundamental shortage of housing stock due largely to the combination of under-building after the great financial crisis and favorable demographics in the form of millennials who are the largest demographic cohort in U.S. history. While the rapid increase in mortgage rates has played a key role in slowing housing demand, the Fed's aggressive pace could turn into an easing cycle beginning as soon as mid-2023. Lower demand should also result in home prices declining. Acknowledging that it will take time, we expect demand to increase and U.S. housing starts to return to levels above the long-term average of 1.5 million units per year once homes become more affordable. In the meantime, the number of housing units under construction in the U.S. remains elevated at 1.7 million units in September. The elevated level of housing units under construction supports lumber demand in the near term. In addition, home buyers and builders have ways to respond to affordability issues. For example, remote work opened the possibility to move to less costly parts of the country for a lot of people. Builder concessions or a shift in product mix to smaller homes or fewer amenities are other examples. Shifting to repair and remodel, the largest market segment for lumber demand, the underlying fundamentals continue to be favorable for a variety of reasons. Existing U.S. housing stock remains the oldest in the history of the statistic at 42 years on average. This is important because older homes are significantly smaller than new homes on average, and older homes typically need more repairs. Higher mortgage rates mean that people are much more likely to stay in their existing homes. Remodeling is a very attractive option for homeowners, given record levels of home equity across the U.S., a strong job market, and the fact that consumer balance sheets remain in great shape. In addition, higher interest rates usually have less of an effect on repair and remodel demand than other factors. Pundits expect repair and remodel spending to continue to grow. The National Association of Home Builders is forecasting a 7% increase in R&R spending in 2022, a 6% increase in 2023, and a 4% increase in 2024. Harvard's Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity report forecasts R&R spending will be 6.5% higher year-over-year in Q4 of next year. Both forecasts imply healthy lumber volume growth in the R&R segment, given much lower, but still attractive lumber prices. Our home center customer takeaway remains strong, and we remain optimistic about lumber demand in the repair and remodel market segment. Turning to CatchMark, the merger closed on the fourteenth of September. We continue to be excited about the strategic and financial benefits provided by the transaction. While we only operated the timberlands for two weeks in the quarter, we were very pleased with log price realizations and harvest volumes. Integration of the two companies is going faster than anticipated, as we have already achieved CAD synergies of $15 million. Also, we now expect to achieve CAD synergies of CAD 21 million versus the CAD 16 million target that we communicated when we announced the transaction at the end of May due to higher interest savings than planned. The sharp rise in interest rates led to a significant increase in the value of our interest rate swaps, which allowed us to reduce the combined company's interest run rate by $8.5 million annually. Jerry will provide more color on the interest savings. As discussed on last quarter's earnings call, we were the successful bidder on three bolt-on timberland transactions earlier this year, aggregating $101 million in total. In total, these transactions add approximately 46,000 acres to our ownership in Mississippi and Arkansas, and the last of the three transactions closed earlier this month. Given our strong results in the first half of the year, we expect to pay another special dividend this year. While the amount depends on our performance for the remainder of the year, we expect the amount will be much lower than the $4 special dividend we paid last year. We will review the special dividend with our board in December. On the theme of returning cash to shareholders, our board approved a new $200 million share repurchase program in August. We believe repurchasing stock at the current price level is very attractive, and we look forward to our trading window opening in early November, one week from today. Finally, we remain committed to growing our regular dividend sustainably. Increasing our stable cash flows with the CatchMark merger and the bolt-on timberland transactions provides the opportunity to continue doing so. Now that said, the relative attractiveness of deploying capital to repurchase shares, given the current steep discount to our estimated NAV, will factor into our analysis. We typically review the regular dividend with our board in the fourth quarter. At the end of Q3, we have $484 million of cash on the balance sheet and liquidity of nearly $800 million. Our leverage remains low, and our financial strength provides a solid platform for continued growth. Regarding environmental, social, and governance reporting, we published our third annual ESG report in May and our first carbon and climate report in September. Our team is currently working on developing a full ESG section of our website. PotlatchDeltic has a strong ESG story, and we are committed to do our part to mitigate climate change and continue our legacy of responsibility across the ESG spectrum. To wrap up my comments, PotlatchDeltic remains very well-positioned, and our strong balance sheet and liquidity provide a high degree of flexibility as we seek to maximize shareholder value. While there is no doubt that new residential construction is weakening given affordability issues, our view is that R&R spending will remain relatively strong over the next couple of years. In addition, the housing construction downturn may prove to be relatively short-lived. I will now turn it over to Jerry to discuss our third quarter results and our outlook. Thank you, Eric. Starting with page 5 of the slides, adjusted EBITDA was up $101 million in the third quarter. The quarter-over-quarter decline in EBITDA was primarily due to lower lumber prices. I'll now review each of our operating segments and provide more color on our third quarter results. Information for our Timberlands segment is displayed on slides 6 through 8. The segment's adjusted EBITDA increased from $58 million in the second quarter to $65 million in the third quarter. Our sawlog harvest in the north increased from 276,000 tons in the second quarter to 459,000 tons in the third quarter. Our second quarter harvest was constrained by spring breakup and unseasonably wet weather in June. Our quarterly harvest volume is typically the highest in the third quarter as dry weather results in more favorable logging conditions. Having said that, our harvest fell short of plan in the third quarter, primarily due to log and haul contractor availability issues. Our northern team is working through those issues, and they have a plan to make up as much of the harvest shortfall as possible in the fourth quarter. Northern sawlog prices were 25% lower on a per ton basis in the third quarter compared to the second quarter. The decline in sawlog prices primarily reflects lower prices for indexed sawlogs. Our index prices reset on a one-month lag, which means the second quarter index prices reflect much higher lumber prices in April and May. In the South, we harvested 1.4 million tons in the third quarter compared to 1 million tons in the second quarter. Relatively dry conditions and solid execution by our Southern Timberlands team allowed us to continue to take advantage of strong sawlog demand. While it's not apparent from the rounded results on slide 8, our southern sawlog prices were 1% higher in the third quarter compared to the second quarter. The increase was driven by 2 weeks of volume in CatchMark's stronger southern markets and a seasonally higher mix of hardwood sawlogs. As discussed on last quarter's earnings call, we expected Southern Yellow Pine sawlog prices to decline modestly in our legacy operations in the third quarter due to increased log availability. The decline proved to be milder than we anticipated, and pine sawlog prices in our legacy wood baskets remained higher on a year-over-year basis. Moving to wood products on slides 9 and 10, adjusted EBITDA declined from $107 million in the second quarter to $31 million in the third quarter. Our average lumber price realization decreased 34% from $865 per thousand board feet in the second quarter to $572 per thousand board feet in the third quarter. By comparison, the Random Lengths framing lumber composite price was 28% lower in the third quarter than the second quarter. As a reminder, the lag we experience between booking and shipping orders is not captured by the composite, which is closer to a real-time indication of price. Our lumber prices were flat for much of the third quarter before declining about 10% in September. Our average lumber price realizations per thousand board feet were $590 in July, $593 in August, and $534 in September. Lumber shipments increased 11 million board feet from 254 million board feet in the second quarter to 265 million board feet in the third quarter. Our team worked hard to mitigate transportation issues to achieve that result. Shifting to real estate on slides 11 and 12, the segment's adjusted EBITDA was $14 million in the third quarter compared to $22 million in the second quarter. EBITDA generated by rural sales declined sequentially due to the mix and timing of transactions. For example, second quarter results included a 10,700-acre Minnesota conservation transaction at just over $800 per acre, while the third quarter consisted of the sale of only 1,600 acres in total. As a reminder, the Minnesota sale I referenced is the last meaningful sale in that state as it culminated a long-term strategy that created approximately $300 million of value for shareholders. Business remains solid in our Chenal Valley Master Plan community in Little Rock, Arkansas, as we generated $9 million of EBITDA in the third quarter. Residential lot sales remained strong with 48 lots sold in the third quarter, and we closed the sale of two more commercial real estate lots for an average price of $183,000 per acre in the third quarter. We have closed at least one commercial sale every quarter this year for an average price of $275,000 per acre. Turning to financial items which are summarized on slide 13, our total liquidity was $773 million. This amount includes $484 million of cash as well as availability on our undrawn revolver. We plan to refinance the $40 million of debt scheduled to mature in December 2022. We have locked the refinance rate, which will reduce our interest rate approximately 100 basis points on this debt, resulting in lower annual interest expense of approximately $400,000. CatchMark had $300 million of debt when the merger closed in September. We used about half of our forward-starting interest rate swaps to refinance $277.5 million of CatchMark's debt at a fixed rate of 1.8% net of patronage, and we used cash to pay off the remaining $22.5 million of CatchMark's debt. We also applied CatchMark's interest rate swaps to reduce the interest rate on a $150 million PotlatchDeltic term loan by over 200 basis points. Overall, the refinance and the use of CatchMark swaps reduced the combined company's annual interest run rate by $8.5 million. That amount is significantly higher than the amount of interest savings that we expected when we communicated our CAD synergy target last May. In aggregate, the interest savings reduced our weighted average cost of our outstanding debt from 3.1% to 2.4%. We've largely been precluded from discretionary share repurchases since our first quarter earnings call due to the CatchMark merger and SEC rules. We were required to suspend our 10b5-1 plan in August when a registration statement was declared effective. We remain committed to repurchasing our shares at attractive prices, and we look forward to our trading window reopening in early November. We expect to pay another special dividend in December. While the actual amount is dependent upon our financial performance for the rest of the year, we believe that this year's special dividend will be much lower than the $4 per share we paid in 2021. Capital expenditures were $13 million in the third quarter. That amount includes real estate development expenditures, which are included in cash from operations in our cash flow statement, and it excludes timberland acquisitions. As Eric mentioned, we were the successful bidders on three bolt-on timberland acquisitions in Mississippi and Arkansas earlier this year for $101 million in the aggregate. We used cash to close all three transactions, including $16 million to close the last of the three transactions in October. I'll now provide some high-level outlook comments. The details are presented on slide 14. We expect to harvest 1.8-1.9 million tons in our timberland segment in the fourth quarter. Harvest volumes in the North are planned to be comparable to the third quarter. This is higher than typical for the fourth quarter as our team is working to reduce the third quarter harvest shortfall. We expect Northern sawlog prices to decline about 25% in the fourth quarter. In the South, we plan to harvest 1.4 million tons in total in the fourth quarter. This volume includes approximately 400,000 tons of sawlogs and pulpwood from the CatchMark acres. We expect our Southern sawlog prices to increase modestly, due primarily to a higher mix of CatchMark's stronger Southern markets. We plan to ship 265-275 million board feet of lumber in the fourth quarter. This assumes that the Ola, Arkansas sawmill startup remains on track. Our average lumber price thus far in the fourth quarter is approximately 10% lower than our third quarter average lumber price. This is based on approximately 100 million board feet of lumber. Our lumber spot price is approximately 11% lower than our third quarter average lumber price, and our prices started firming recently. As a reminder, a $10 per 1,000 board foot change in lumber price equals approximately $12 million of consolidated EBITDA for us on an annual basis. Shifting to real estate, we expect to sell approximately 1,500 acres of rural land and 23 Chenal Valley residential lots in the fourth quarter. Additional real estate details are provided on the slide. Our total capital expenditures are planned to be in the range of $85 million-$90 million in 2022, excluding acquisitions. This estimate includes approximately $18 million for the Ola rebuild, which we expect will be reimbursed by insurance. The estimate also includes a $12 million deposit for the Waldo modernization expansion project that we announced in June. Overall, we expect our total adjusted EBITDA will be lower in the fourth quarter due to lower lumber and index sawlog prices. Having said that, lumber prices remain at attractive levels. We're well-positioned to continue growing shareholder value over the long term. That concludes our prepared remarks. Lisa would now like to open the call up to Q&A. At this time, I would like to remind everyone if you would like to ask a question, please press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press star one again. Your first question comes from the line of Mark Weintraub with Seaport Global. As you're thinking about capital deployment, so you talked about, you know, you're going to have a special dividend. You talked about an appetite for share repurchase with the stock where it's at. You've done a number of acquisitions. Are you still on the lookout? Is that still part of likely capital deployment in the, you know, next 6, 12 months? And then tying it all together, what type of balance sheet or other metrics should we focus on in understanding what your comfortability and target type ranges are? Hey, Mark. Mark, this is Eric. Yeah, you know, our appetite is we wanna continue to try to grow the company through timberland acquisitions. You're right, we've been successful this year, not just with CatchMark, but also with 46,000 acres and $101 million or so that we spent on the bolt-ons. What I'd tell you is that the timberland market is getting in our opinion a little bit overheated. For example, we competed here recently in two different tracts. We lost these deals. One of them was a tract in Georgia. We went to nearly 22.5 times EBITDA. The other one was in Alabama. We lost this one as well. We went to 23.5x EBITDA. Both those transactions, we went to the low end of our discount rate range. We lost both of them, and we were told we were in the middle of the pack of bidders. That means people are paying north of 22, 23, 24x EBITDA for timberland. You know, that's the max that we're gonna go given our current discount rate range. While we'd like to continue to grow and we will continue to compete and we'll try to take down timberland M&A because we think it's a very attractive asset class, there is a point at which it no longer creates shareholder value. In our mind, we're going to have to pivot here with our strong balance sheet, with our cash that we have on the balance sheet. We're going to have to pivot into other capital allocation priorities. Coincidentally, you know, our average analyst estimated NAV is up around $63 a share. You know, as we sit here today, we're at, I don't know, $44 a share. We're trading dramatically below what people believe our NAV is. It seems to us like it presents just a fantastic time. Honestly, we've been waiting for this opportunity to step in and buy shares for some time. We've said all along, we want to buy stock when it's depressed, not when it's at fair value. Well, guess what? Today it's depressed, and it's time for us to step in and put our money where our mouth is. That's gonna start happening about a week from today. I'm gonna let Jerry answer the second question on balance sheet, but does that answer your question on the first half? Yeah. That's super. Thank you. Yeah. Mark, picking up on the kind of the balance sheet part of that question, you know, I would say overall, really no shift or change, you know, given our posture and our metrics, in terms of how we manage that balance sheet. I mean, at a high level, having strength and flexibility has served us well in the past and, you know, we plan to maintain that, going forward. You know, as a reminder, our EBITDA leverage, which is a key metric that, you know, we monitor and talk to our credit rating agencies with is EBITDA leverage and, you know, continue to expect to maintain that in the 3.5-4 times range. You know, today we find ourselves under 1, so a lot of flexibility there. The long-term goal through a cycle, which I should emphasize here, really remains in that 3.5-4 times range. We like to have a bit of cash, again, to be opportunistic and have some flexibility. You know, in the past, we've talked about having a minimum of $100 million of cash on the balance sheet. No change there. Okay. Super. That's very helpful. And obviously when you're talking that 3.5-4 times that's kind of over the cycle, so we can't necessarily look at the current EBITDA, which is presumably, you know, you have been at extremely high level. So you're presumably using different numbers internally when you think about what that translates into in terms of a gross number. Is that fair? That is spot on, Mark. You know, when I look at that 3.5-4x target, you know, we're really modeling and stress testing a low point in the cycle, kind of perspective 'cause we wanna maintain, you know, debt levels kind of under that range, even at the low point. Okay. Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Kurt Yinger with D.A. Davidson. Great. Thanks, and good morning, everyone. Morning. I just wanted to start out on the special dividend, and Eric, you touched on it a bit in the prepared remarks, but I mean, with three quarters in the books and some stability here in the lumber markets, is there any way you could maybe help us quantify a range of what that might look like as well as how you're thinking about any discretionary component versus share repurchases or other capital deployment opportunities? Yeah. I'll actually take that one, Kurt. This is Jerry. You know, in terms of, you know, stepping back, you know, as a reminder for the group, we mentioned this in the prepared comments, but we paid a $4 per share special dividend last year, and I think we've had a position at least the last couple quarters, it feels like, where we said, this year's special dividend is gonna be significantly lower. There's a number of factors that play in. First and foremost, it's really important. I think we must have mentioned between Eric and I four times in the prepared comments, you know, the priority that share repurchases and the attractiveness of share repurchases at the current discount that we trade. You know, deviating a little bit here, and I'll get back to the point of the question. You know, we just put a new $200 million share repurchase authorization in place. Our window reopens November 1. To the degree we can shift capital to share repurchases from a special to the degree we have that discretion, you know, that makes all the sense in the world to us, again, given the discount that we trade at, today. When you go back to that $4 per share special dividend, that we paid in December of 2021, you know, I mentioned this on last quarter's call, but there is a 40% discretionary component to that. You know, I mean, overall, the special dividend is primarily to protect our REIT status, you know, by kind of purging excess cash from the taxable REIT subsidiary. We also included a 40% discretionary component on top. You know, as a reminder, we're trading around $60 a share last year versus the $44 that Eric talks about today. Clearly that capital allocation set of priorities have shifted. When you think about other moving parts, you know, Idaho sawlog prices, when you step back for the full year, are probably down about 30% year-over-year. That's going to reduce the amount that's needed for a special dividend. Lumber prices are down as well. Again, that, you know, really goes into the amount of cash that we have to purge out of that taxable REIT subsidiary. We've also grown the regular dividend. Payout, for example, just with the shares we issued in the CatchMark merger is up $20 million year-over-year, and that effectively shifts, you know, what potentially would've been special dividend dollars over into the regular dividend, bucket. For all those reasons, you know, it, you know, it's hard to pin down the number exactly this year. We'll sit down with the board in early December, you know, when we review it, but it feels like it's probably in the $1 per share range, maybe just a bit under $1 per share just to give some benchmarks. Got it. Okay. That's all very helpful. In terms of northern sawlog prices, you know, for the Waldo project, you've used $500, and we're about there now, so maybe we'll just use that. I mean, there's some variability with the timing of indexing and log density. I guess if you were to use that $500 per thousand assumption, is something in the $130 a ton zip code for northern sawlogs a reasonable starting point? Yeah, I guess to clarify, Kurt, I'm assuming you're talking 2023 in its entirety, and if that's the case, that is a reasonable proxy. Okay. Got it. Lastly, you know, log costs were a slight sequential benefit in wood products in Q3, but maybe a bit less than I expected given the decline in your own Idaho realizations. Is that just a timing factor around when inventories were built at the mill? Any thoughts around the benefits on the wood product side from at least the lower saw log costs in Idaho in Q4 and maybe even the early part of next year? Yeah, I would say, Kurt, you know, the premise behind your question is spot on. It's really all about timing. I mean, you think about it, you know, there's seasonality around, you know, the log deck and when it gets built and when it gets torn down. You know, a lot of the high price logs, you know, that were the mill has been, you know, the complex has been processing even in the third quarter, you know, really purchased earlier in the year when lumber prices and index log prices were much higher. You know, certainly a bit of relief, you know, as that averaging kind of takes place, and the log deck is kind of torn down. You know, we'll start building that log deck in preparation for spring breakup here. In fact, that's already in the works and well down the road. You know, you're averaging lower price logs into that log deck. You know, expectations, you'll see a little bit more price relief, you know, from a log cost standpoint, in Idaho in Q4, and then you probably get to a new run rate as you think about your model when you move into 2023. Got it. Okay. That's super helpful. Well, appreciate the color, and I'll turn it over. Thank you. Thanks. Your next question comes from the line of George Staphos with Bank of America Securities. Thanks very much. Hey, Jerry. Hey, Eric. How are you? Good, good quarter here. Quick question for you on northern harvest and contractor availability. What are your plans? How do you expect to be able to get more contractors and more production in the fourth quarter? If you could give a bit more color, that'd be great. You bet. This is Jerry, George. You know, it feels a lot like what we experienced, you know, in the South, a year or two ago, when we had contractor availability issues. You know, it really starts with there isn't really much in the way of surge capacity when you think about log and haul contractors. I mean, over time, you know, hear about tight labor markets, and, you know, it also feels like there's been, you know, a bit of migration as, you know, as the contractor workforce ages out. I think there's a challenge in kind of replenishing, you know, the folks that are working, you know, in that space. You start with, you know, pretty tight surge capacity. Your team does a really good job over time managing in that tight environment. When you layer on top of it things like, equipment breakdowns the contractors have, and then all of a sudden, you know, supply chain issues and getting critical spare parts and delays, you know, it starts to have a kind of a ripple effect. Once you get behind without that surge capacity, it's really hard, and quite frankly, it's impossible to get caught up. That's a bit of what, you know, the team was wrestling and came to the forefront, you know, in Q3. Now in terms of what do you do to, you know, to manage through that, you know, as a large player in Idaho, that certainly helps because, you know, we have deep and long-term relationships with some good quality contractors. you know, just really effectively managing and leveraging those relationships to make sure we get the, you know, the kind of the focus that we need. you know, when I think about just in terms of some color on where do we think we'll land in the harvest in Idaho for the year, you know, we're about 200,000 tons short against our plan, you know, year to date the end of Q3. weather holds, and having said that, it's gotten a little wet here, so it either needs to dry out or freeze up. you know, it can't be in this middle ground. if weather holds, we'll probably make up about half of that, shortfall and end up about 100,000 tons short. Now the flip side is we're obviously running well ahead in the South. Overall from a harvest volume standpoint, we're actually up, you know, you know, versus what we'd expected at the start of the year. Aside from leveraging your relationships, I mean, does it mean that the incremental margin on those harvests when they do come in on the production will be maybe a little bit lower, in terms of other incentives that you might be needing to offer to get more availability? I wouldn't imagine there's much, but is there any sort of capital involved in doing that as well? You know, just a couple quick thoughts on that as well. In terms of cost, I mean, the big story when you think about log and haul cost this year is really diesel. You know, you step back, certainly our log and haul rates are up, but that probably explains something on the order of 75%, 80% of, you know, the increase in cost. Now, you know, having said that, there is, you know, there's fairness in the premise of your question, which is that, you know, rates have gone up as well because of tightness, and that's true both in the South and in the North. You know what I would just add, George, is when you look at the fourth quarter, you know, we're targeting 450 to 500 thousand tons of saw logs more or less, and maybe a little bit of pulpwood. All we really need to do in Q4 is to do what we did in Q3. Q3 was a challenge for us, no doubt, but we still got nearly 500,000 tons in Q3. All we gotta do in Q4 is do the same thing. It's just that we typically build our log decks earlier in the year. We typically build them in Q3, and this year, some of that slipped into Q4. No, that's great, Eric. That makes sense. One sort of quick question, kind of a bigger picture one though. You know, we tend to think about the fourth quarter, you know, being roughly $500,000 per board feet, $500 per thousand board feet on the. We tend to look at British Columbia as kind of setting that point. How do you expect the fourth quarter to evolve over the next year or so, recognizing it's hard to project that? Do you think it declines quickly? Do you think it hangs in at that level, and why? On repair and remodel, we understand, you know, given all your sources that you expect that that'll remain, you know, pretty stout into 2023 and 2024. Intuitively, shouldn't we expect remodeling to drop a bit with housing starts since so much of remodeling comes from the activity that happens, I shouldn't say housing starts, but home purchases, you know, after the person buys that home and starts remodeling it in that first year. Thanks, guys, and good luck in the quarter. Yeah. Thanks, George. Your question on fourth quartile, you know, kind of the cost curve, if you will, how's it gonna evolve over the next year or two? I frankly don't think it's gonna change a whole lot. We know where there are structural issues with lumber in North America from a cost standpoint, and that's British Columbia and increasingly the Pacific Northwest. You know, the harvest volumes are coming down over on the west side roughly 10% over the next couple of years. It's not just British Columbia. Frankly, it's gonna stress mills for sure, and you're seeing some curtailments right now up in BC in particular. But it's not. All these mill closures are not gonna happen overnight. If you ask me 10 years from now, where do I think the cost curve is gonna be, it'll be maybe $450, not $500 for that fourth quartile segment. In the next year or two, I think it stays up in that $500 ZIP code. People are, you know, nobody likes to close a sawmill and let employees go, and it disrupts residual streams, and that has implications for pulp mills and pellet mills and lots of things. I don't think Sure The cost curve changes materially over the next year or two. Now with regard to repair and remodel, yeah, sure. You're right. As new home sales come down, that is gonna have a tendency. That effect alone will tend to push down R&R. I think more R&R expenditures are for when somebody buys an existing house, or is living in a house that they kind of feel trapped in, for lack of a better word because they can't afford to move into a new house. I don't think people typically go buy a new house and then say, "Oh, let's remodel this brand-new house that we just bought." I think it tends to be more older, more existing kind of houses, if you will. Yeah, there's no doubt on the one hand, fewer new home sales will put some downward pressure on R&R spending. I think all the other factors that we laid out between record home equity levels, strong job market, consumer balance sheets are in great shape. I think all those factors outweigh the fact that new residential starts are gonna be coming down. Yeah. I really meant to say existing home sales, you know, trending lower, you know, having more of an effect on remodel. But your points about, you know, feeling trapped, the age of the housing stock and so on, is important as well. Yeah. I'll turn it over. Thank you, guys. Great. Thanks. Thanks. Your next question comes from the line of Ketan Mamtora with BMO Capital Markets. Thank you. Eric, can you talk a little bit about, you know, channel inventories on the lumber side, both in retail as well as on the pro side? Yeah. I can talk about them in general, Ketan. You know, we don't really track them closely. You know, once they leave our mills and they go to customers, you know, it's just anecdotal evidence that we pick up from talking to folks. You know, our understanding is that they're at really low levels. The home center takeaway is at or above pre-pandemic levels. Our home center business is rock solid right now. You know, our sense is that most of that uptick, that strength, if you will, is coming from the pro contractor side as opposed to the DIY side. But our view is that inventories throughout the channels are relatively low, and especially in R&R, demand remains very strong. Got it. That's helpful. Maybe switching to the real estate side. Eric, can you talk about the opportunity that you have on the CatchMark portfolio in terms of alternative streams of revenue? If you can touch upon solar, that would be helpful as well. You bet. I'll take that one, Ketan. This is Jerry. In terms of CatchMark real estate opportunities, that's, you know, one of, you know, many reasons why we're really excited about, you know, having completed this deal. You know, as we laid out in our kind of announcement slides back in May, a lot of CatchMark's land is proximate to some large population centers, and that's different than what we've had, you know, in our rest of our southern acres in our legacy holdings. That by itself, we think creates a lot of opportunities. You know, the other trend we've seen, and we, you know, we know, to our knowledge, is the first solar deal earlier this, you know, this year in the first quarter, and that was very attractive. Certainly, you know, we see those kinds of opportunities in CatchMark's footprint as well. The other thing I will share is, you know, once we close a deal, we did the same thing with Deltic, you know, we did the same thing with Loutre, you know, which we closed last December, is we go through and we actually take our team's expertise and knowledge, and we go through and we stratify every one of those acres, and that process is underway. It'll take our team probably 6-9 months to really kind of go through the whole portfolio. It doesn't mean that we're not gonna sell, you know, real estate off of CatchMark land before then. We will. In fact, you know, we expect, you know, probably just under 1,000 acres in the fourth quarter, for example, here. You know, that's where we're really kind of surface and start to gauge, you know, what is the magnitude of that opportunity above and beyond what CatchMark was doing historically. Stay tuned. You know, we'll come back and provide an update as we complete that stratification process. Okay, that's helpful. Just one other question. What is the right way to think about, you know, sustainable harvest, you know, with CatchMark, you know, sort of completion? If you can break that between the North and the South. Yeah. So in terms of sustainable harvest, I mean, obviously we've got a lot of moving parts this year with the $101 million of bolt-on timberland transactions. We've got CatchMark, you know, in the midst. You know, we're also in the throes of our budget process, and as part of that, we go back and we recalibrate our harvest plans going forward long-term, not just for next year. You know, if I were to step back, we'll provide you know, guidance once we finish that process here when we release fourth quarter earnings. You know, give or take, it's probably around 8 million tons. You know, again, the actual number will depend upon you know, probably a bit above 8 million tons. It'll be. We'll come back with that information. You've seen the historical run rate in Idaho. We haven't added or subtracted from Idaho, so the delta's gonna be in the South. Got it. No, that's helpful. I'll turn it over. Good luck. Thanks. Your next question comes from the line of Mike Roxland with Truist Securities. Thanks, Eric, Jerry. Appreciate you taking the questions. First question just was on CatchMark. Now that you've had some time to digest the acquisition, is there anything that you were not expecting going into the transaction? You know, just from my background with the industry and certainly interactions with the company, CatchMark had historically been, I think, somewhat aggressive with their harvesting level. So I'm wondering if there's anything that as you've had time to now go through and look at things more carefully, whether you know, things really haven't worked out. It could be just maybe one or two things that are off a little bit, but you know, is there anything that you weren't expecting now that you've closed the transaction? You know, Mike, I would say no, to be honest with you. You know, like we mentioned in our prepared remarks, the harvest volumes are coming in spot on. We talked about this when we announced the merger. You know, we'll be in this 1.6-1.8 million tons for the next, who knows, 8-9 years. It will dip 100,000 tons or so as you get out into the future for a couple of years, and then it comes right back. We're not disappointed with the timber inventory. Pricing is met our expectations. It's kinda hit our merger model, if you will. Frankly, for the next 3-4 years, as I recall, we really don't have much pricing increase in CatchMark's markets. You know, the only real surprise I would say is, and Jerry talked about this, is our refinance opportunities have only gone up compared to where they were before. I would say no, their assets are good. We'll see how the real estate stratification plays out, but I've got to believe with CatchMark's ground being closer to major metropolitan kind of urban areas, Atlanta, Columbia, whatnot, I would have to believe the real estate opportunity is gonna be better than what we initially thought too. We gotta give the real estate team time to go through their stratification. No, we've been very pleasantly surprised so far. Gotcha. Just last question is on lumber order files. I think last quarter you mentioned they were stretching out a couple of weeks. Have they shortened at all, just given what's happened in housing? No, they really haven't, Mike. They. They're still in the one- to two-week kind of zip code, kind of at traditional levels. You know, I think it goes back to what I said before. Yeah, sure, housing starts are under pressure. We all get that. Affordability is an issue. The R&R side of the equation, we think is hanging in there just fine. You know, I think those two maybe are canceling each other out. Got it. Thanks very much. Thanks. Your next question comes from the line of Paul Quinn with RBC Capital Markets. Yeah, thanks very much. Morning, guys. Just a question. Morning on the timberland markets. It sounds like you lost a couple deals, and it seems like I'm seeing timberland prices remaining strong despite rising interest rates and therefore discount rates. Why is that? You know, Paul, I think people love the timber asset class, number one. You know, this notion that it's a hedge against inflation, scarce resource. I honestly think carbon is starting to get priced into some of these valuation models. We haven't explicitly priced it into our model yet, but I'll tell you, we are working on some carbon projects, so I would not be surprised if at some point in time in the future, there's a line item in our cash flow statement that says carbon. I think the other thing that's kind of interesting is that non-traditional buyers increasingly are showing up to bid on these tracts. I'm referring to Apple. I'm referring to IKEA. You know, this is a furniture retailer. IKEA now has, I don't know, nearly 150,000 acres of Southern timberland. I think, you know, the asset class is increasingly attractive, not just from carbon, but also, you know, these other non-traditional buyers. When you also look at what's happening up in BC, in the Pacific Northwest with harvests coming down, the action is in the South, and that's where most of the deals are happening. All right. Specifically on carbon, how are you going to monetize that, or what's the frameworks we should be thinking about if we wanted to pencil some value in for carbon? Well, I would tell you that it's very early stages, number one. Number two, you know, at this stage of the game, carbon values don't compete with sawlog values. They're not even remotely close. I will tell you there are some tracts that maybe are not super highly attractive, you know, plantation-style forestry, maybe like a hardwood stand, for example, where carbon values could outpace What that hardwood value might be. It's too soon for me to say because we're at the early stages talking to a couple different parties about monetizing some of this ground. We'll see how it plays out. Okay. Just switching over to real estate at a high level, what are your expectations for 2023 in that portfolio? I appreciate the attempt, Paul, but you know, like I said, we'll come back in our Q4 release, and we'll provide guidance on 2023. I mean, historically, you know, rural land, we've been in that 20,000-acre range. That's certainly gonna be lower because you know, Minnesota, as we've mentioned the last couple of quarters, is essentially done. You know, I don't know if it's half, a little more than half of that 20,000, you know, is a decent placeholder at this point. Then you know, our average annual run rate for residential lot sales has been somewhere in the 150, 160 lot range. Now we're at 180 this year, you know, but obviously. We still see, you know, some relative strength in that market. It'd be a little premature to, you know, to look forward to 2023 and say, you know, we'll have a repeat at the 180 lot level. Okay. That's helpful. Thanks very much, guys. Best of luck. Thank you. Thanks. At this time, I am showing there are no more questions. I'll now turn the call back over to Jerald Richards. All right. Thank you, Lisa. Thanks everybody for your questions and your interest in PotlatchDeltic. To recap, our year-to-date 2022 results are very strong. We look forward to providing updates on the performance of our leverage to lumber strategy, our integration at CatchMark, and our progress on increasing shareholder value. This concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.
Loading workspace