Question points only, and so if media or other individuals are on the line, please disconnect now. Disclosures are available on the webcast and at the AV desk. For those in the room or the webcast, you can go to liveqa.com and enter code GPC 24 to submit any questions if you don't want to raise your hand. Eric, we'll turn it over to you to introduce your company and team, provide any opening remarks, and tell our audience the top reasons an investor should buy your stock today. Yeah, thanks, Anthony. I'm Eric Cremers. I'm the CEO. Been with the company 17 years, CFO for seven years, Chief Operating Officer for seven years, and now CEO for three years. I'm joined here with Wayne Wasechek, our CFO, and he's been CFO now for one year and was Chief Accounting Officer for five years prior to that. PotlatchDeltic, we're a timber REIT. We're headquartered out in Spokane, Washington. We have three business units in our company. Our first is our Timberlands business unit. We have a total of 2.2 million acres. About 600,000 of those acres are up in Idaho, and 1.6 million of those acres are down in the southeastern part of the United States, running all the way from Arkansas all the way over to South Carolina, spread across those states. With those 2.2 million acres, we harvest about 7.5 million tons per year, and it's split about 80% in the southeast and 20% up in Idaho. Moving on to our wood products business, we have seven mills in the United States. Six of those are lumber mills, and one is a plywood mill. Those lumber mills are in St. Maries, Idaho, Bemidji, Minnesota, Gwinn, Michigan, Ola, Arkansas, Warren, Arkansas, and Waldo, Arkansas. With those six lumber mills, we produce about 1.1 billion board feet of lumber per year, so we're the 10th largest lumber producer in the United States. Our industrial-grade plywood mill also is up in St. Maries, Idaho. It's an industrial-grade plywood mill because it produces extremely high-quality plywood that's used in high-end products like boats and RVs and truck trailer panels and things like that. The last business unit that we've got is our real estate business. There's really two different segments in our real estate business. The first is, you can imagine, having 2.2 million acres, some of those acres are going to be worth more money in some other application besides for growing trees. So we stratify our 2.2 million acres, and we look for opportunities to monetize those acres at prices generally in the three-five times the value of the timberland range. Typically, we'll sell roughly 1% of those acres more or less per year for a higher and better use sort of an outcome, again, at prices three-five times what the land would be worth if left in a timber-growing sort of estate. The other product we have in our real estate business is our Chenal Valley master planned community in Little Rock, Arkansas. It's not something that we would go out and start building a new master planned community on our own. We inherited this master planned community from the Deltic merger back in 2018. It's a little bit of a gem. We sell anywhere from 130-150 residential lots per year, no vertical development, just lots. Typical lot sells for $100,000, and about 50% of that is margin. We also sell commercial acreage in that Chenal Valley Master Planned Community. It could be five-15 acres per year at anywhere from $300,000-$500,000 per acre. It's a great little business for us. So we're a typical Timberland REIT. We've also got Natural Climate Solutions as an emerging opportunity for us. And there's several different types of opportunities for us in that opportunity set. And the first one is solar farms. It's a huge opportunity. We think we've identified about 60,000 acres that are going to work for a solar outcome. The second opportunity for us is for carbon offsets. We've got a carbon offset project underway right now. We hope to complete that in the third quarter of this year. And then the last opportunity we've got is, of course, carbon capture and storage, the other opportunity that we're looking at with NCS. So that's a quick overview of the company, Anthony. I'll turn it back to you. Great. Thank you. I think among the timber REITs, you have the most leverage to lumber prices. And I'm wondering if you could talk a little bit about current lumber demand. We're kind of moving into the spring selling season for the home builders, how you're seeing demand and pricing in lumber market? Yeah, we are the timber REIT most leveraged to the price of lumber, not just through ownership of our six lumber mills, but also because of the fact that 75% of our saw log production in Idaho is indexed back to the price of lumber. So our earnings in our Idaho timberlands go up and down with lumber prices. Back to lumber prices. So we think we troughed in October of last year with the Random Lengths index at around $366 per thousand. And today, as we sit here, we're up around $400 per thousand. And the reason prices have moved up is really there's several different factors. First, supply has come off of the market. There's been 2 billion board feet of capacity that's come out of the market in the past year, year and a half. Repair and remodel markets are fairly stable. The home centers, Home Depot, Lowe's, they've made comments about their comps for the year. They expect to be slightly negative, 2%-3% negative. But I think it can be true that they have got negative comps, and we have got a strong and growing lumber business with them. So the home centers have told us that they'll take every last stick that we can produce out of our mills that meet the criteria for the program that we're selling them, which is really a stud that's a 2ft by 4ft, 8ft or 9 ft in length. So I feel really good about the repair and remodel market segment. It's pretty stable. The home building market or new residential market has shown remarkable signs of resilience. If you look at what Toll Brothers has said, Tri Pointe, Taylor Morrison, all the home builders have been making very favorable comments about the demand for new homes and the order flow and traffic that they're seeing in their various properties. So I think the demand on the new residential construction side, it fell last year, but it feels to me like it's getting stronger this year. And if we can just get to a place where the Fed cuts rates a time or two or three, I think it could really spur home building, as the U.S. is underbuilt by 4 million-5 million units. And I think affordability is an issue, and with lower rates, houses will be more affordable, and demand would go up. So as we sit here today, Random Lengths is around $400. Our view is that prices should be moving higher as we move through the year, given the above factors that I just referenced. The backdrop is pretty favorable. The year is off to a relatively slow start compared to what I was expecting, but I think a lot of that was driven by the really inclement weather that we had back in January. Really, the entire country was basically shut down in January from really cold weather. And so demand for lumber just was zero that month. Well, it wasn't zero, but it was very subdued. So I think while I was expecting prices to start moving in January, I think it was delayed. And now, as we're getting out and getting closer to spring, I think we're going to start to hear from the home centers. They're going to start to place their orders. I think with this backdrop of better housing, I think there's an opportunity for lumber prices to improve. Great. Can you talk a little bit about where your system you think it sits on the cost curve? And in terms of improving profitability, absent price improvement, are you taking curtailments or running at lower operating rates or just kind of how your system is positioned? Yeah, so our mills are all highly competitive. They're either in the first or second. We may have one that's in the third quartile, but it's close to being in the second quartile. So thankfully, we're not in that fourth quartile, which is where you don't want to be, or you run the risk of having to close your mill in a downturn. And I think the reason our mills are competitive is because we're constantly looking for and putting capital back into our mills to make them more competitive. And I think a great example of that is our Waldo, Arkansas mill. We're spending $130 million to expand that mill. A lot of that cost has already been spent. We've got another 40-some million to go to spend this year. But when we're done with that project, that will be a top 10 lumber mill in North America. I think with that investment, we expect Waldo to produce an extra $25 million per year of EBITDA. So I think, yeah, by continuing to put capital back into our mills, we keep them competitive, and we keep them from slipping into the fourth quartile. I think for a number of years, we've seen BC sawmills come offline, higher-cost mills. Is that dynamic still playing out? What inning are we in potentially? Are you seeing closures or curtailments in other parts of maybe the U.S. or U.S. South? Just how do you kind of view that? Yeah, I do think there's more to go up in BC and in Canada. So we haven't talked about the duty on imported lumber from Canada. There's been a trade dispute with Canada going back decades now. And the duty that the Commerce Department has assessed on Canadian exports to the U.S. today sits at 8%, by and large. And it's going to 14% in August. It's going to go up another 6%. And a lot of people are speculating that that duty is going to go to 20%+ in August of 2025. So it's just going to make it more and more challenging for the Canadian producers to continue to thrive, if you will. So I do expect there to be more curtailments, closures. It's hard to know, but I'd guess another 1 billion-2 billion board feet is a strong possibility. The closures that we've seen, they're not just limited to BC. We've seen closures in the Pacific Northwest. We've seen closures even in the U.S. South. In any given region, you'll have great mills, and you'll have bad mills. And I'm sure even up in BC, there are some great first-quartile mills. But it's generally easy to characterize the South as being an area of strength and places like BC where fiber availability is a real challenge as a weak market. Great. Maybe on lumber, can you talk about sort of inventory levels, maybe at the dealer level, and what those sort of normally look like and what they maybe look like now and in terms of sort of buyer psychology if you think about kind of going into the spring? Are Are dealers holding thin inventories or ready to stock up, or how do you think about it? Yeah, I think inventories are at very low levels. And part of it's driven by that nasty weather that we had back in January. So there was very little takeaway. I think dealers, they're learning to operate their business with kind of a just-in-time mindset. And they look at it, and they say, "Oh, lumber prices are low." It's easy to pick up the phone and call a supplier and say, "Ship me some lumber," so they can kind of get away with it for now. But what happens is when it turns, and it will turn, I mean, the cure to low prices is low prices, right? Capacity leaves the market or demand comes back. So when that demand comes back, all of a sudden, lumber is going to be in short supply. The dealers won't have the inventory. They'll have to pick up the vendors, suppliers like us, and say, "Sell me some lumber." We'll say, "Yeah, get in line." That's when there's real price volatility. So I think these low inventory levels, they're going to cause price volatility down the road. Hopefully, it's to the upside. Great. Maybe just shifting to your timberlands, and maybe we can start with Idaho because that is so linked to the lumber business. Can you talk about your ownership position in Idaho and what makes that kind of a unique market? Wayne, you want that one? Yeah, so we own in our Idaho portfolio, we have about 625,000 acres. We are the largest private landowner in Idaho. We do have a unique arrangement where we index 75% of our saw logs to the price of lumber, and not only price of lumber, but SPF lumber in that region. And what that does is definitely creates, especially what we've seen so last several years, the pricing on lumber really come to the benefit of our Timberlands portfolio in Idaho. We talked about our direct leverage to lumber. This is another big piece of that leverage to lumber is our Timberland portfolio. It's very unique to the industry. No one else has that. And that's really a function of where we are established as a big player in Idaho. And that allows us to have that type of arrangement. It's set on a one-month lag, the pricing. And so just that timing works out for that. And then also, it continues just to be a very unique position that we found very favorable. Great. And given that it's kind of a unique ownership, is there an opportunity or an ability to kind of get bigger or maybe smaller in Idaho or a desire? And then I think we think of Idaho as experiencing a lot of in-migration, a lot of population growth. Are there any sort of HBU or sort of optionality around that that you can exploit, or are you kind of in a different part of the state? Yeah, taking your first question on, we find Idaho to be a very attractive state to do business in. Frankly, we would like to acquire more timberland in Idaho. Trees grow quite fast in that region. It's a very attractive timberland ownership area. But there's really a limited opportunity. Large tracts don't come up for sale very often. So it's very difficult to really expand ownership in that area. But that's something we would certainly want to do if the right opportunity came up. I think to your second question on HBU, certainly, we saw a very active market, especially in COVID, coming out of COVID. There was a lot of interest, people remote recreating that created very strong interest, especially in our Idaho portfolio. We saw a significant increase in multiples on timberlands in Idaho. Yeah, and certainly, in this environment, higher interest rate, that's softened somewhat. But it's still a very attractive market. People continue to show strong interest in owning HBU property for personal purposes. Great. Great. And then maybe shifting to the South, can you talk about where your timberlands are in the South, and then you close the CatchMark transaction? Can you talk a little bit about that and what it brought to the portfolio? Yeah. Yeah, certainly. And we're very diversified across the South. Really, we look at it two primary regions. One, kind of first, the Gulf South: Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana. And then with the CatchMark acquisition, we entered into southeastern Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina. So we own about, across those two regions, 1.6 million acres of timberland. And yeah, it really allowed and that's where our growth has been. Back in 2018, we did acquisition of Deltic Timber, acquired 530,000 acres, primarily in Arkansas. And then, as you mentioned, CatchMark, those are 350,000 acres in South Carolina, Georgia, and southeastern Alabama, which really allowed us to expand a footprint into a new strategic market for us. In terms of the relative attractiveness in the U.S. South between maybe more inland regions like Arkansas and maybe more coastal regions, I'm just curious to kind of get your thoughts about that. It seemed like in the pandemic, we had a large amount of price appreciation for lots in the coasts, and Arkansas was kind of more stable. And a lot of that price appreciation in the coast seems to be kind of given back up. So just how do you think about those dynamics? And maybe from a long-term perspective, where do you see price appreciation? Yeah, pricing certainly is dependent on the specific wood basket you're looking at. But you're correct. Yeah, our Southeastern region, that Georgia, South Carolina, that's a much more tensioned log market just given the number of mills. Also, you're constrained by the coast there. So you really think about what's the region a mill can pull from, and you're constrained from just geographically that as well. But we've seen, yeah, those markets pricing much stronger given those tension markets compared to Arkansas, Mississippi. Those are much more stable pricing environments that we've experienced. And yeah, we think that as demand picks up moving forward, yeah, probably we'll continue just given the growth-to-drain dynamics in Arkansas, Mississippi. We probably continue in the near term, probably more pricing stability. But as demand picks up with those more tension markets in the Southeast, we would expect to see stronger pricing, higher price increases there. If we look at log output in the U.S. South, how much of your volumes are going to your saw mills versus being kind of sold into an open market? Yeah, kind of regionally speaking, I think we kind of have this natural hedge in our, I would call it, legacy or Gulf South region where we're consuming about 2.2 million tons of logs. Now, we're probably internally supplying around 50% of that. But we're also selling about 2.1-2.2 million tons of logs in the region. So really, in that region, we're really hedged to the price of logs. Pricing increases 10%, probably that has a probably around 1%-2% impact for us on a pricing standpoint. Now, in our Southeast region, we sell about 1.6 million tons of logs. And we don't have any mills in that region. So that's pure log sales there. In terms of log prices, I mean, we saw pressure last year. How would you characterize kind of the log price environment currently, maybe differentiating between more inland Arkansas and maybe some of the coastal stuff or stuff that came with CatchMark? Yeah, I think in the environment we're currently in, I would say stable. Even across both of those regions, certainly heading into the early part of 2023, there was a little bit of pricing pressure. We saw pricing appreciate 4%-5%, probably 2021, 2022, but a little bit that turned with where lumber demand and container board demand, pulpwood demand happened last year. So that certainly caused a slight decrease in pricing. Now, with those more tension markets in the Southeast, we probably saw a little more price depreciation than our Arkansas region, that Gulf South region. But like I said earlier, we would expect that as demand tightens that region, we would see further price appreciation than we would say necessarily in the Gulf South. But overall, I would say these markets are stable. And that's in the foreseeable future kind of what we see now. As demand picks up, we would certainly see that translate into higher pricing, especially in the Southeast. Can you talk about the market for timberlands themselves in terms of level of interest, transaction volume, maybe price trends for good quality timberlands in the South? Are some of decarbonization, HBU, are those creeping into cap rates? Should we think of you as sort of net buyer, net seller in the South over the long term? Yeah, I would say, Anthony, the interest in owning southern timberlands has never been higher. A lot of strong interest in timberland. I think we competed in 12 M&A transactions last year. We were successful with one. And I think it was for just a couple hundred acres, just really expensive markets. And I think what's going on is, well, number one, there's a lot of capital very interested in owning the timber asset class for lots of reasons. I mean, timberland tends to be uncorrelated to other asset classes, tends to be an inflation hedge. There are these emerging revenue streams: solar, carbon credits, carbon capture and storage. We have lithium deposits in South Arkansas, for example. So everybody's looking at it and saying, "Gee, there's an option on if I own timberland, there's an option on these potential income streams." So in spite of the cost of capital moving up across the industry, timberland prices, discount rates have only gone down. It's quite remarkable. And we tried to demonstrate that. We saw a disconnect between public and private markets in the fourth quarter last year. We're trading at what we think is about a 25% discount to our NAV, a sizable discount. So not only have we been buying back our stock, but we also decided to sell some four-year-old trees. So these are really small trees. Obviously, no merchantable volume on them. They really won't produce any cash flow for 20-25 years. We sold these trees to a TIMO who was acting on behalf of a European investor that wanted to own these four-year-old trees for simply sequestering carbon. We sold those trees for $1,700 an acre, which is a premium price. We're not normally interested in selling our good, productive, strategic industrial timberland. But we're portfolio managers at the same time. When somebody comes along and offers us a super attractive price, we got to act in the best interest of our shareholders and part with them. We sold those at a 3.5% discount rate. We identified an acquisition opportunity. This is a very unusual acquisition opportunity because it wasn't being broadly shopped. It was 16,000 acres in Arkansas of 25-year-old stands. They were fully mature, ready to be cut down. We bought those for $1,900 an acre. So we'll start harvesting those trees literally this year. So we sold four-year-old trees for $1,700 an acre, and we bought 25-year-old trees for $1,900 an acre. That's a really good trade. And that's how you create shareholder value through M&A in timberland. But I'd tell you, the vast majority of meaningful tracts of timberland that get auctioned, they're auctioned very broadly. We had one deal last year where 44 bidders showed up to pursue a particular tract. And if you're familiar with the winner's curse, I mean, that's what tends to happen in timberland M&A. Yeah, they can high-five themselves and say, "Wow, this is great. I got the deal." Chances are, if they outbid 43 other bidders on that timberland, they overpaid. And we're just not going to play that game. We're not going to overpay. At the end of the day, we're only going to do M&A if it creates shareholder value. Could we talk a little bit more about Natural Climate Solutions? You talked about solar, credits, CCS. In terms of level of maturity of where the industry is in terms of kind of realizing these opportunities and just how you're positioned? Yeah, there's really three big buckets. Solar is front and center. It's real. It's happening now as we speak. We have 20,000 acres under auction right now. It It prices roughly equivalent of $10,000 an acre. There's another 20,000 acres that we're in discussions with developers over that we think are going to come under contract over the next year or three. And then there's another 20,000 acres that we have that we've identified that we know will work for a solar developer, but we're not in discussions with. So all told, that's roughly 60,000 acres. Call it $10,000 an acre. That's $600 million of value for 3% of our acres, 15% of our enterprise value, more or less, for just 3% of our acres. We think the leverage there is just enormous. The solar industry in the United States is going to triple by the end of the decade. That's what most of the forecasts indicate. So I feel really good about the monetization of those solar deals. So the next one up is carbon offsets. That, too, is near term, but it's a little bit trickier. And let me explain why. We've got a Carbon offset project that we're working on. It's probably going to reach maturity in the third quarter. We'll sell those credits in the third quarter, hopefully. May slip to the fourth quarter, but it's probably the third quarter. It's for 500,000 credits the first year because we built up a backlog of three years of not harvesting on this particular track. And then it's, on a go-forward basis, 100,000 credits per year this track will generate. At roughly $30 a ton or $30 a credit, it's roughly $15 million in year one of revenue and then $3 million in year two and into perpetuity, assuming a $30 credit price. And herein comes the tricky part. I can reasonably be certain I'm going to get 30 bucks today because there's a lot of price talk out there in the marketplace. I don't know what's going to happen in year two, five, 10, 20, or 30. Do carbon credit prices go up, or do they go down? Do companies stick with their net-zero pledges, or do they walk away from their net-zero pledges? Because that's where the demand for these offsets is going to come from. And so right now, we're kind of taking a bit of a go-it-slow approach. We're putting our, I would call our, I don't want to use the word worst, but it's our lowest productive timberlands. We're looking to put those into a carbon offset play this year. We'll see how the deal goes. And we know we have more acres that could readily be applicable as a carbon play. But we'll start with executing this first one and then go from there. And if carbon credit prices really take off, then I could see us setting aside some of our industrial plantation forestry for carbon credits, too. We're not there yet today, but we'll see how the market matures. So solar is front and center. Offsets are a little bit fuzzier because we don't know what the price outlook is longer term. And then the last opportunity, carbon capture and storage. That is even further out into the future. We've done a lot of studies. We have the geological formation under the surface of our timberland to adequately store captured carbon. But there's activity. There's a lot of work being done. But there's still a lot of work that needs to be done to get to the point where the carbon is captured, it is piped, and it is pumped underground. I think the industry is even farther off with that opportunity. In terms of a competitive advantage for you, if I'm a counterparty in a solar project or a CCS project or credit project, what does PotlatchDeltic offer that maybe a smaller private landowner might not? Did you hear that one? Yeah. I think probably one of the key advantages, especially on the solar side, these solar projects are anywhere from typically 1,000 acres-2,000 acres. And that's contiguous land. And so we can bring to the table kind of one-stop shop, just dealing with one large landowner, having a solar developer trying to piece together that type of land mass with multiple private owners is very challenging. And so it's much easier to come to us with that type of opportunity. Plus, the other key point is where you really need to be near transmission lines to tap into the grid. So location is key, and being a large landowner is the other key piece. And then same thing with carbon credits. You have to have scale to do a project like that. It takes expertise. It takes investment. You can't do these projects with small-scale land holdings. Our project, as Eric mentioned, that's 50,000 acres. Yeah, that would take a lot to a lot of effort. You go through the audit process, go through the marketing process. You need a sizable footprint in order to do that. And that's what we bring. We're certainly educating ourselves on what's involved in the process. But we have the financial wherewithal to bring it to market. We have the scale, whereas smaller players don't have that. Great. Maybe last question. You talked about buying back the stock. Can you talk about capital allocation, capital structure for your company, given lumber prices can be a little bit volatile, how you manage that? Yeah. So we do a lot of financial planning, Anthony. We think about good markets. We think about bad markets. We try to manage leverage to a point where we don't get too stressed when markets are at their worst, which is probably at their worst right now when we're not making any money in our lumber business. We're at, what, 4x leverage today? This is as bad as it's likely to get. Good markets, our lumber businesses, can produce a lot of cash flow. So back to capital allocation, we're carrying a relatively low amount of leverage, 17% debt to enterprise value. We are investment grade. Our borrowing costs are at 2.3%. We still have another $200 million of interest rate swaps that we can put to use for future refinancings to buy down the interest rate on that debt. So great balance sheet. We've got plenty of liquidity. Our Waldo project is now coming to completion. We should be generating cash flow off of that $130 million investment. Yeah, I feel really good about where our balance sheet sits today. Now it's a regular analysis that we do quarter in, quarter out of what do we think about capital allocation. Of course, our dividend is sacrosanct. We're going to look after that dividend first and foremost. After that, I'd say we always look at buybacks depending upon where the stock is at relative to estimated NAV. I think today, trading at 25% below NAV, we look at it and say it's a pretty attractive investment. I would tell you that we also look at M&A. M&A markets have been really difficult for us over the past year or two, as I'd mentioned earlier. Now, that being said, things still come along from time to time that we can consummate and create shareholder value. That 16,000 acres that we just got done buying in Arkansas, we're going to earn an 8.5% return, IRR, real return on that investment, unheard of in timberland M&A markets. So we'll continue to look after opportunities like that. It's unlikely. We'll be paying down debt with our balance sheet being as solid as it is. And we'll continue to invest in our mills in discretionary high-return projects. It has to beat our hurdle rate, which is in the 12%-15% range. But certainly, we find those projects from time to time. And the Waldo expansion is a great example of that. I think the one thing I do want to mention is that we'll never act fast or hastily with our capital allocation decisions. We're always going to be thoughtful and mindful simply because there's no prize for acting fast with regard to capital allocation. Great. Great. Eric, Wayne, thank you. Yep. Thank you. Thank you.
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