Right on time. I'm going to go ahead and get us started here. Thank you for joining. For those who haven't met me yet, my name is Buck Horne. I'm the timber REIT analyst, but I also cover all things housing related. Home building, multifamily, single family, rental, as well as timber is kind of a corollary to building products. I'm really thrilled to be able to introduce to you PotlatchDeltic this morning. I've got the CEO, Eric Cremers, to my left, and Wayne Wasechek is the CFO. PotlatchDeltic is a $4 billion timber REIT, owns 2.1 million acres of timberland, and also one of the largest lumber and wood products manufacturers in the U.S., with seven manufacturing facilities across the country, both in the U.S. South and the Pacific Northwest. With that, what we're going to do is a little discussion here. I think Eric will give us probably a few minutes of company overview for those who are not quite as familiar with what they do and how they make all their money. And then we'll talk about some topical questions. Obviously, there's a lot in the news, and the lumber industry is one of those sectors that we think could be a prime beneficiary of tariff policy, depending on what goes into it. Of course, we're still waiting and watching to see what actually happens with that, but a lot of topical news to talk about and some interesting things happening with lumber pricing. So with that, let me turn it over to Eric, and then we'll go from there. Yeah, thanks, Buck. And good morning, everyone. As Buck mentioned, we are a timber REIT. I'll correct him. We're about a $4.5 billion enterprise value. Seems to be moving higher every day. As a timber REIT, of course, capital allocation is really important to us. Our dividend is really important to us. But let me briefly describe our three business units and then get into some capital allocation discussion. So we have 2.1 million acres in our timberlands business. And with our 2.1 million acres, we harvest about 7.5 million tons of logs per year. And our acreage is held about 600,000 acres in the state of Idaho, where we are the single largest private landowner. And then we have another 1.5 million acres in the U.S. South, spread across six different states, with Arkansas being our largest acreage in the South, with about 900,000 acres. That's our Timberlands business. We grow and harvest, sustainably harvest trees. We plant about 30 million seedlings per year, so we're sustainable. And we have a variety of end-use customers that run from sawmills to pulp mills to pellet mills, you name it. Our second business unit is our wood products division. Our wood products division consists of seven mills, six of which produce lumber, and one of which produces industrial grade plywood. With those six sawmills, we produce around 1.2 billion board feet of lumber per year. We're about the 10th largest lumber producer in the United States. And you might think that, well, gee, you're number 10, you must have disadvantages being relatively small. There are nine companies that are bigger than you. And the reality is that's not true. We are very careful to analyze our margins out of our sawmills every single quarter, and we compare very favorably with our peers, our much larger peers. So we have 1.2 billion board feet of lumber. Our mills are spread across the north and the south. First, our sawmills, we have one in St. Maries, Idaho. We have one in Bemidji, Minnesota, one in Gwinn, Michigan. And then we have three down in Arkansas. A couple of our mills are stud mills, which means they produce relatively short standard lengths of lumber. And then other mills are dimensional mills, which means a wide variety of lengths and dimensions. Our plywood mill is a specialty industrial grade plywood mill. So it's for high-end applications like boats and RVs and truck panels and things like that. It is co-located with our St. Maries, Idaho lumber mill. So there's a lot of shared infrastructure at that site. So that's our lumber business. The third business unit that we have is a real estate business. And our real estate business really consists of two different product offerings. One is a sale of rural land. We call it HBU. We sell that land at values that are significantly higher than what that land would be worth if it was left just to produce trees and those trees get harvested in our timberlands operations. So we'll sell that land at roughly three to five times what that underlying land would be worth if we had left it and kept it as a timber-growing asset. So it's a very important part of our business, and it's one of the many ways that we go about creating shareholder value. The other product offering that we have in our real estate business is we own a master plan community in Little Rock, Arkansas, where we produce and sell about 130 residential lots per year, and we also sell between five and 15 commercial acres per year, prices that are anywhere from $2,000-$500,000 per acre, so those are our three business units. We also have an emerging Natural Climate Solutions business. As you can imagine, owning land, there are other ancillary income streams that you can get besides growing and harvesting trees and selling off raw land, and this Natural Climate Solutions business for us consists of a couple of different things. One is solar farms. We're not actually creating the solar farms ourselves, but we'll sell land to solar farm developers at roughly 10-15x multiples of what that land would be worth if it was kept in a timber-growing state. It's a big opportunity for us. Right now, we have 35,000 acres under option with developers. We think by year-end, we'll have 45,000 acres. And we think our total potential, because we've stratified our land, we know what solar developers are looking for. We think our opportunity is to go all the way up to 75,000 acres. It's going to take us a few years to get there, but we think that's our potential. We also have an emerging lithium business inside this Natural Climate Solutions area. One of the world's largest lithium deposits is in South Central Arkansas. We've already announced one smaller lithium deal, and we expect to have another one announced, hopefully by the end of the year. We're not actually going to produce and sell the lithium. What we're going to do is we have the brine. It's underground. We have the mineral deposits, and we are going to enter into an arrangement with a developer that will take our brine and strip out the lithium and then sell it to battery manufacturers. I think that's the world's fourth largest lithium deposit is in Arkansas. The U.S. views lithium as a strategic mineral and is trying to bring that type of manufacturing back home to the U.S. We're very optimistic about our lithium business going forward. Then there's other opportunities in NCS as well, including carbon offsets and then carbon capture and storage. As a REIT, capital allocation is extremely important to us. Paying our dividend is sacrosanct. We yield around 4% today, but we'll also, from time to time, buy back stock. We've been buying back stock pretty regularly over the past couple of years. I think we've purchased 2.5 million shares for $115 million over the past three years. We'll also invest back into our business. We just got done investing $130 million into our Waldo, Arkansas sawmill, and we expect that project, which is now, it's complete, and we're in the ramping up phase. It's going to yield the company about an incremental $25 million per year of EBITDA, so there are other capital allocation levers besides the dividend that we concern ourselves with, and then lastly, I'd tell you we've got a great balance sheet. We're investment grade rated by both S&P and Moody's. Debt to EV is just under 20%. And we think we're well positioned going forward. Buck, perfect. Thank you. I was going to lead off with just help us understand the sensitivity in your model to lumber pricing, what's a little bit different with how that flows through your financials because of things like the Idaho contracts that you have with your logs there. So maybe just kind of, if you can quantify for us that rough sensitivity in the math and if we go from $450 lumber to $500, what kind of EBITDA contribution do you get and how does that impact each of the segments? Yeah, it's a good question, Buck. So we are the timber REIT that is most leveraged to lumber, as we like to say, and given the environment with potential tariffs on Canadian lumber and already the large duty, there's a 14% duty on imported Canadian lumber today. And that duty is going to, people estimate, 25%-30% by the end of the year. So not only could there be duties on Canadian lumber, there could be tariffs on Canadian lumber. And we're talking about numbers that are 50%-60% of the value. So we are the timber REIT most leveraged to lumber. And what that means is that our earnings fluctuate more than Rayonier or Weyerhaeuser or our two peers in the industry with changes in lumber prices. So as we sit here today, a $10 change in lumber prices will impact our P&L by $15 million worth of EBITDA. So just to give you a sense of how important that is, lumber has gone up about $100 per 1,000 board feet in just the past eight months. Random Lengths composite bottomed around 360 in July of last year. And as we sit here today, the Random Lengths composite is just below 460. So that $100 swing in lumber prices for the composite translates to about $150 million of incremental EBITDA to our business. So what happens to lumber prices really matters to our company. And why there are such big swings is really twofold. One is we have a sizable lumber manufacturing business. So obviously, big swings in lumber prices have a big impact to our P&L from that. But also, as I mentioned, we have 600,000 acres of timberland in Idaho where we harvest about 1.5 million tons per year. And the vast majority of that tonnage, the prices that we sell those logs for are indexed back to the price of lumber. And that's what drives this leveraged to lumber situation that we're in, which is great. Yep. No, it's great in a rising lumber price environment. Sounds fantastic. The question we often get, though, is one thing that's happened we've been surprised by has been kind of even with these record, I would say record low, but this depressed lumber price environment, how long a lot of the Canadian producers have kind of hung on to their production capacity and kept putting wood into the market, even at uneconomical rates. But with this tariff outlook, obviously, you mentioned the duties, which, that's a whole separate deal, which are going into effect, we think, in August. And it seems like the production costs of Canadian lumber just keep going higher. Are you starting to see any impact from your customers or are you hearing anything from the Canadian side of the equation where you're seeing that supply start to finally come out of the market? Well, so we have seen a lot of Canadian supply come out of the market over the past few years. Canada has just had one issue after another. It all started with the mountain pine beetle in British Columbia, which just decimated the forest in BC. It was uneconomical for a lot of mills to operate. They couldn't get logs. Literally, half the forest was dead. And now it's shifted. The next issue Canadians face are duties. Most of the timberland in Canada is owned by the federal or provincial governments, and they effectively are subsidizing their sawmills with cheap logs. The U.S. government has picked up on this, and that's why there are duties in place today. And this trade dispute with Canada goes back literally 100 years. It's been going on forever. And we're at a point today where there are sizable duties in place, and those duties are even going to go higher as we get out into the fall. So we've seen a lot of Canadian capacity come offline, shut down, and we think more is coming. Certainly, when you get into what we're talking about, 25%-30% duties in the fall, coupled with who knows what's going to happen with tariffs, it's hard to know where we wind up at the end of the day. But it's going to make it very onerous on Canadian producers. So I expect there to be more closures up in Canada as we move through the year. And I think, in large part, the reason we've seen this significant rise in lumber prices over the past year is because of these coming duties and potential tariffs. Interestingly enough, we really haven't seen our customers react to a potential supply disruption coming out of Canada. I think they look at it and they say, "There's a lot of uncertainty. We don't know how this is going to shake out." Yeah, Trump seems to carry a big stick and pound the table. He's always trying to get something at the end of the day. Maybe these tariffs go in place for one day. Maybe they go in place for a month. But I think most customers don't see it as a long-lasting issue. And so they really haven't stepped up to bolster their inventories. And we'll see how this plays out. But if these tariffs go in place for any period of time, I think you're going to see lumber prices move higher. And I wish I had better news to report on the housing market conditions right now, but it's been a slow start to the spring selling season for most of the homebuilders so far. And pending home sales in the existing home market are pretty sluggish as well, given where mortgage rates are at right now. But we are getting maybe a little bit of relief, some rates starting to come down, and maybe there's some optimism out there. But as you think about the inventory and the channel or maybe the sensitivity to housing starts, how do you think your log and lumber pricing would react if rates did come down to a more reasonable level and we finally did get a little bit of a lift in housing starts? How does that impact the business if we went from this? We're kind of stuck in this range of about 1.4 million-ish total housing starts. But if we got to 1.6, for example, what do you think that would do for log and lumber pricing? Yeah, I think maybe as a backdrop, just talking about some key fundamentals for us, certainly housing is a big driver of lumber demand. That's about 35% driver of lumber demand. The other big driver is repair and remodel. That's about 40% of the market. So those two components right there drive 75%-85% of the market. So really what happens in housing has a big effect on our business and lumber pricing. As Eric mentioned earlier, it's lately been a supply story where we've seen lumber pricing increase, especially from the lows of last summer. But as demand picks up, certainly that'll increase pricing. And we think, yeah, if you see a demand pickup in U.S. housing, that would have a pretty dramatic impact on pricing. We think that we're pretty optimistic this year. What do rates do? I think definitely that's an open question. But heading the latter part of this year, certainly next year, we think there's a lot of favorable underpinnings to housing that could really support strong demand there. You think about, especially in the housing sector, it's estimated U.S. is underbuilt, say, four to six million units. You have favorable demographics entering or in their home buying years. So really we just need rates to start to cooperate a little bit. I think given those demand fundamentals, you can see a significant shift in pricing in the future. I think one thing to highlight is that capacity utilization in lumber manufacturing today is around 80%, and our analysis shows that there's a pricing inflection point at around 85% capacity utilization, where producers tend to have a lot of pricing power. We're not there yet where producers have a lot of pricing power, but this little bit of increase in demand, as we push from 80 to 85% capacity utilization in the industry, that's when producers tend to have a lot of pricing power, and if you think about what happened during COVID, where capacity was really constrained, that's the kind of reaction you get when capacity utilization gets really tight. Fantastic. Let's dive into Natural Climate Solutions just a little bit and talk about some of the deals going on there. Maybe start with solar because I think those are really interesting contracts and maybe offer the maybe closest near-term monetization opportunity. But maybe talk us through how those deals are structured. How does the timeline work between option to exercising the rights or putting actual equipment in the field and getting royalties? And how does solar work? And what are the potential risks, do you think, if, for example, the Inflation Reduction Act funding was pulled back or something, there's a change in policy around solar funding? Yeah, Eric talked earlier about our solar opportunity. We have, again, 35,000 acres under option contract with the potential to go up. We've identified another 35,000 acres. And that 35,000 acres, we estimate about a value of around $400 million on an NPV basis. And those are either lease options or purchase options. Some developers like to do outright land purchases, certainly be favorable leases. Majority of them are leases, but certainly we have some land sale opportunities in there. But really, we've seen a significant pickup in the last two years. These option contracts tend to be anywhere between 3-5 years. There's a lot that goes into a development of a solar project. The developer has to procure the equipment, go through a permitting process. Probably the biggest is entering into an off-take agreement with the local utility. Really aligning all that up takes an extended period of time. That's why you see these option contracts, three to five years. We think that given we've entered into these in the last couple of years, probably we'll really start to see some traction here in the next probably less than two years or so and moving forward. But you think about the need for energy in the U.S., where with all the data center activity, the demand for energy, it's got to come from not just one source, but multiple sources. And certainly solar is part of the solution, green energy. There were certainly a lot of incentives provided in the IRA Act that really we saw a pickup in activity. But even putting that aside, I would say, given the change in administration, we still see a lot of solar activity, a lot of interest. We're still working through developers. And like Eric mentioned, anticipate another 10,000-15,000 acres coming under option contract this year alone. So again, it's been a very active environment. You look at where these solar projects are at, the vast majority are in the US South. Most of these projects are in what I call red states. So again, I think, yeah, even a Republican administration is very favorable to solar. These projects pencil out even without major subsidies. So we think that, yeah, they'll move forward. Even I know, for example, 18 representatives wrote to Speaker Johnson saying, "Hey, don't touch these. These are important for us." So we really think that any incentive, given America's wanting to be energy independence and just the need for energy, solar, yeah, we're very excited about that opportunity. I think it's important to highlight the leverage our company has on the solar front. So what we're talking about here is 35,000 acres under contract today. We think we got another 35,000 acres to go. So add it all up, that's about 70,000 acres. Now, these are mostly going to be long-term leases that we enter into, 30+ year kind of leases. And our lease payments are going to be X amount plus CPI. So there's going to be a growing cash flow stream going forward. But if you add up the net present value of those acres, it's somewhere between $10,000-$15,000 per acre net present value for those leases. So across 70,000 acres, we're probably talking about $850 million in total for 70,000 acres. Essentially, let somebody else have them under a lease, and they're going to produce solar electricity with them, so they'll no longer be available to us for growing and harvesting trees. Roughly 3% of our acres is what we're talking about. So now think about the value of the net present value of those leases. As I said, it's $850 million. Well, our enterprise value today across the whole company is in this $4.5 billion range. So just what, 3% of our acres are worth 15% of our enterprise value? The leverage there is just enormous. Or another way to think of it is this: 70,000 acres, and our lease rates are generally running higher than $1,000 per acre. They're $1,000-$1,500 per acre. We're talking about $70-$100 million of incremental EBITDA. Long-term locked in from some of the world's largest utilities are going to be on the other side of the contract, so the leverage here for our company is just, it's enormous. Yeah, I think you comfortably say you're not getting any credit for that in your current stock price. We need to talk to the analysts about this. That's right. Put that in the NAV. Absolutely. Briefly, I do want to touch on the lithium side, just a couple of minutes on lithium. Have you guys done or worked with partners that have studied what you have underground or the pore space? Or how does that, what's the analysis of what you got underneath your acreage? Or is it accessible, and what's the timeline before that could actually be monetized? Yeah, I mean, we've certainly begun the geological analysis. And, like Eric mentioned, one of the largest lithium deposits in North America, it's there. Certainly, to extract lithium and brine and take the lithium out of the brine, it's capital intensive. So these companies need to build the facilities to do this process, which will take some time. The agreement that we just entered into, there's a five-year planning phase in there, which also would incorporate construction of a facility. And so that does take time. But really, the big driver of the value there is there's kind of two factors at play. One, there's a need to set a royalty rate for this lithium. And then two, what is the ultimate price that lithium, what's the market price that lithium will bear? And so those really are the two big factors of driving what is the potential opportunity for us. It could be okay, or it could be really, really big. So we'll see what the future bears. But certainly, it's going to take some time for the development of the infrastructure, but the technology's there. They know that the mineral content is there. And so really, it's really bringing that capital market and ultimately getting lithium as prices are a little bit depressed today. But once it's expected that to turn around, and once that does, I think there'll be more capital investment in the lithium side. Yeah, the other thing to mention, Buck, is that the tract that we're talking about, we have about six. So the first deal that we did, the small one was around 900 acres. But this next one, the larger one that we're working on is probably 6,000 acres in total. But just to give you a sense of it, this lithium deposit runs a mile deep underground. And it's got a production life of roughly 30 years. So the impact here is potentially quite sizable. Now, as Wayne mentioned, lithium prices are very volatile. They're like Bitcoin or lumber in terms of their volatility. So it's hard for us to project what the income opportunity is going to be. But we think we'll get visibility into this as we move forward. But we're quite excited about this opportunity. Let me switch gears to Waldo and the mill expansion that's been ongoing for at least a couple of years now. It's now kind of at the point of ramping up. Can you talk about kind of cost savings and impact, and as that mill gets to full capacity, what kind of impact that mill may have? It's been a project you guys have been working on for quite some time. Yeah, that's a good question, Buck. So yeah, we've been working on this project for many years. So it's really started looking at it after the Deltic merger back in 2018. And then when COVID hit, we had outsized profits in our lumber manufacturing business. We started thinking about, as a capital allocation lever, how can we grow our lumber business? Our Waldo, Arkansas sawmill sits in a fantastic wood basket. It's overgrown, so to speak, which means there's an ample supply of fiber for the foreseeable future. So we undertook an exhaustive study, and we concluded that investing in this Waldo mill was the best opportunity that we had, the highest return opportunity we had in the company from a capital allocation standpoint. So we entered into a contract to modernize the mill and expand capacity. It took us two, two and a half years to get that project done. It was a $130 million investment. It's going to grow capacity from 200 million board feet per year to 285 million board feet per year. It's going to lower cash processing costs 30%. It's going to improve recovery. Recovery is, it's a measure of how many logs it takes to produce a given amount of lumber. It's going to improve recovery 6%. 6% doesn't sound like a big number, but when 60% of the cost of producing lumber is the log, if you can improve your recovery by 6%, it has a huge impact on your P&L. We're very happy the project is now behind us. We're at the short end of the ramp-up part of the curve here. It's going exceptionally well. We're very happy with that project. All right, we've got two minutes or less, but I did want to mention, can you just highlight the strength of your balance sheet right now and just your thought process also around capital allocation, balancing that between repurchases? If we did get, let's say we did get this big lumber price spike that seemingly lumber futures are forecasting, if you did have a windfall of additional profitability, would you think about a special dividend at some point again or share repurchases? How does that balance out? Yeah, I think we've got a great capital allocation track record. If you look at when we issue stock or when we buy back stock. But one thing that we say repeatedly to investors and analysts is that we're going to be very slow and disciplined with our capital allocation. There's no big advantage to going super fast from a capital allocation standpoint because you never know what the future holds, right? Today, there are no great M&A opportunities on the timberland space, but tomorrow there might be. Today, I can't tell you that I know of another great mill expansion opportunity in our company. But we're doing analysis, and there may be another one coming. We like buying back our stock when it is trading meaningfully below NAV. And as I mentioned at the start, we've bought back 2.5 million shares for $115 million over the past three years. So we're going to look at all of our levers. And certainly, if we do get outsized profits that bolster our balance sheet, we'll take a look at all of the capital allocation options that are out there and we will judiciously, slowly and carefully put that capital to work to the benefit of shareholders. But certainly, we've demonstrated a track record of wanting to grow the company, right? Back in 2018, we did a $1.3 billion acquisition. We do smaller bolt-on acquisitions of timberland. And then we've remained patient and disciplined. And then again, in 2022, we did another $890 million acquisition. So we're patient, but certainly looking to grow the company. All right, thanks guys. We'll have to leave it there. We do have a breakout session downstairs for detailed follow-up questions. So please join us down there if we can. Thanks.
Loading workspace