Good morning. My name is Justin, and I'll be the conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Park Aerospace Corp.'s fourth quarter fiscal year 2021 earnings release conference call and investor presentation. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during the session, simply press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press the pound key. Thank you. At this time, I will turn today's call over to Mr. Brian Shore, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Shore, you may begin your conference call. Thank you very much, operator. Welcome everybody to Park's fourth quarter conference call. I have with me, as usual, of course, Matt Farabaugh, our CFO. We announced, published our earnings release early this morning. If you haven't checked it out, you want to do that. In the earnings release, there are instructions as to how to access the presentation. We're about to go through a presentation you also can find on our website, but you really want to get that presentation in front of you in order to make this call more meaningful. Without the presentation in front of you, it might be a little confusing. Also, there's supplemental financial information that's attached as Appendix one to the presentation. Matt used to read that for us, but these presentations are going on for so long that we don't do that anymore. Feel free to access it and ask any questions you like about it. We mention this every now and then, probably almost every call actually, that we're not able to cover everything. These presentations are fairly lengthy as is. We need to kind of select what we think would be of interest to you and helpful to you in understanding our company. We do the best we can with that. Then, next call, maybe we'll cover something else. The call could go on for 45 minutes, you see we really, it's not possible to cover everything. We'll try to keep to 45 minutes. When I say the call, I mean the presentation, we'll have as much time as you want for questions and answers. When we're done with the presentation, then we'll turn it back over you, and you can ask any questions you want, either about the presentation or anything about Park generally that's not in the presentation. Okay, why don't we just go ahead and get started? Why don't we turn to slide two. This is our forward-looking disclaimer language. Any questions about this, just let us know. Slide three. We'll take a little bit longer on slide three than slide two. Slide three has a lot of stuff going on. Very busy. Why don't we start by looking at the top line for the quarters of the fiscal year one, two, three, and four. You can obviously see what's going on, based upon the significant downturn in commercial aerospace, and also we talk about de-stocking at some point. Come back a little bit in Q4. I want to remind you right now, right when we start, about something we discussed, I think last quarter, maybe in the prior quarter, that relates to this essential component for rockets for missile systems. This is our ablative product line. Remember how it works. There's an essential component that's sourced overseas. We have the relationship with the supplier. The OEMs are concerned about this. These are critical missile programs. They ask us to buy that component, sell it to them just to have a safe stockpile of that component. It's an essential component. The product couldn't be made without it. We do that. We buy this component, we sell to the OEM, to the customer. They never owned it to begin with, and it's their product, and they can do with it what they want, I guess. The expectation is that we will use that component to produce the ablative materials, the composite ablative materials for these rocket and missile programs. This is significant for a couple of reasons. It affects our top line, also our bottom line. We sell it at a small markup, so the margins are quite small. The mutual content for these sales are quite high. I just want you to know that, remind you of that for background. In Q2, sorry, in Q3, we had approximately $2 million of those sales of the component, and in Q4, we had $3.5 million of sales. We predicted that, I think, when we did our Q3 call, so that shouldn't be a surprise to you. I just want to remind you of that because it does kind of affect the numbers. Let's go through Q4, the current quarter, fiscal 2021 Q4, $14,441, 000 of sales. You can see the numbers moving up, but in that number is $3.5 million of sales of that critical component with fairly low margins. Gross profit, $4,326, 000. Gross margin 30%, which is, we like that. We don't like it when it's below 30%. We're actually surprised about this because with that critical component, that essential component, the margins are quite low. We're surprised that the gross margins actually came in at exactly 30%, actually. That's not a forced number. We don't do that. That's just the math. It came in 30.0%. The adjusted EBITDA, that's $3,257,000. We're a little bit surprised about that. Let me remind you about our forecast philosophy before we go into more discussion about the numbers. When we give you a forecast, we're telling you what we think is going to happen, based upon working very hard and doing everything we need to do to make it happen. We're telling you what we think is going to happen. We don't give you a low number to beat it. We think that's kind of silly. We know lots of other companies do that, large as well like. We think this, I don't know, not wasting your time to do that. If we tell you something, we're telling you what we think is going to happen. We could be wrong, we're telling you what we think is going to happen. All right. With that in mind, let's talk about what did happen in Q4. What did we say about Q4 during our Q3 conference call? We said the sales estimate was $14 million to $14.5 Million. Well, we came in within that range, okay? Look up toward maybe to the higher end, still within that range, no problem. We also said the adjusted EBITDA estimate was $2.3 million-$2.8 million. Well, we came in at $3.257 million. Quite a bit above the top of the range. That's not what we thought was going to happen. What happened was that we did not properly capture and/or estimate for Q4 the margins on ablator products. Now, I'm not talking about the essential component. These are our sales of ablator materials for rockets and missile programs. Very good margin, we just didn't fully capture those margins. That's on us. This is not something we did to give you a low number we could beat and be a hero. As I said, we just don't do that. Not our way of doing things. Let me see. Anything else to cover on the numbers? No, I don't think so. There's another big item I kind of deal with on this page. This page as it flows down. Special items, okay, you see at the bottom it says before special items. There was a big special item in Q4, $1.570 million. That related to something we used to call a Pioneer Plant, which is a plant in Singapore we opened in 2008. This is a composite material plant. This is just around the time we were going into Aerospace. This plant was going to be our Asian Aerospace for composite materials facility. It was part of our Singapore company, our Singapore entity, our Singapore operation. In electronics, our Singapore facility was our largest facility, so it was part of that. It wasn't a separate entity. The key thing was it was going to be operated and managed by our Singapore team, which is the electronics group at the time. I wouldn't say it was very successful in terms of marketing. We didn't get very much sales. Nevertheless, for whatever reason, I would not say it was a great success, okay. As you know, we sold our electronics business in its entirety, AGC, in December of 2018, and that included the Singapore operation, of course, the Singapore entity. Now, this Pioneer Plant, as I said, wasn't even a separate entity. It was part of the Singapore entity. We separated it and dropped it into another entity owned by Park. Why is that? AGC did not want to buy the Pioneer Plant. They didn't want it. We said, "Okay, fine. We'll keep it." We have kept it. We had to mothball it almost right away, I think almost right away when we did the sale in 2018, because without AGC or our Singapore people, we didn't have the ability to operate this plant anymore. We mothballed it. We didn't write it off right away, because we had some hopes that we might be able to use it at some point. Why is that? Remember we've been talking about working on an Asian JV for a while. I don't think we discussed it every quarter. We've been talking about it for a while. Actually, we're still in discussions with a large Asian Aerospace company about doing a JV in Asia. Our thought is that, well, maybe this plant would be used in that JV. These discussions are high level at the executive level of this company. I would say they're serious, but also they're still preliminary. COVID has not been our friend because we really need to get together. We've had a lot of phone discussions, correspondence back and forth, questions and answers. To me, in order for this to get to the next level, this discussion, we need to get together, and really their team needs to come to Kansas, spend a couple of days with us. With the COVID travel restrictions, that just has not been possible. They have not been able to do it. It really sidetracked this whole thing. We're still in active discussions. I'm not telling you it's dormant at all. We're still in active discussions, like probably on a weekly basis, emails or phone calls, that kind of thing. I feel like until we're able to get together, it's kind of not going to get to the next level. Why did we decide to write it off this time? This thing has been going on for a while. Even if we do a JV, it's not clear that we'd use this facility in a JV. We decided to write down the assets at this time. I think that's the right decision. I think it was the right prudent and thoughtful decision. Just in case you're interested, not much of an impact P&L-wise. The pre-tax benefit now being written off the facilities by $200,000 per year positive. The EBITDA benefit is only about $80,000 because some of the costs are depreciation. Just wanted you to be aware of that, because I think in the news release there is kind of a reference to this write-down, but I wanted you to know the background. We didn't have the ability to continue to operate this plant after we sold electronics to AGC because there was nobody to operate it for us. Maybe the decision was kind of inevitable, but we made it, and I think it was the right decision and the right timing. Why don't we go on to slide four? Just a little more history here with our 2021 results. You can see the top line, kind of nice growth, 2017, '2018, 2019, 2020, and oops, '21. Of course, no newsflash here. That's the effects of the commercial aircraft industry downturn and that de-stocking we talk about sometimes. Okay, why don't we move on to slide five? Our top five customers. This is something we do on, I think, every presentation, actually. It's kind of almost a fun thing sometimes. We have a little picture for each customer. AR Aerospace, that's the MK 25, the picture in the bottom left. We supply material to this program for actually structural components, just not the rocketry, the structural components of the warhead. Let's see, CPI Radant, that's Mach 1, that's over on the top right, the NMT Navy Multiband Terminal. We supply radome materials into that program. Kratos, we talked about Kratos quite a bit. Picture in the bottom middle of the Valkyrie. I think we told you we believe we're the main composite material supplier to Kratos for all their drone programs. This is a picture of the Kratos launching what they call a baby drone. Kind of interesting. That's a drone launching a drone. How about that? I think Kratos actually said they expect the first production delivery of the Valkyrie in a couple of months. I think that was their terminology. Middle River Aerostructure, that's the company that was owned by part of GE Aviation. Now it's part of ST Engineering Aerospace. You know all about them. We have a picture of, this is 747-8 on the top left. Turkish Aerospace, not often in our top five. It's really nice to have them. They're a contractor for Sikorsky Aerospace. You have a picture of a Sikorsky helicopter on the bottom right. We provide materials for the structures for the Sikorsky helicopters. Okay, why don't we go on to slide six. These pie charts I find very interesting. Let's look at military in 2021, just as a math, $60 million total revenue, 35%, it's about $21 million. U.S. fiscal 2021, where the total revenue is a lot less, only $46.3 million, but 59% military, and obviously the military percentage has grown quite a bit, but actually the absolute number, it's about $27.25 million. It grew from 2020 to 2021, which is nice. Remember, we decided about a year ago to focus on military. I'm not saying we're happy with the results completely, we need to do better. At least we've achieved some results. Just remember also that the $27.25 million includes quite a bit of that sale of the, what do we call it, an essential component for Ablatives for rocket programs. Just keep that in mind. Look at the commercial aerospace portion of the pie. It was $28 million apparently, it looks like in fiscal 2020, and $16 million in 2021. Just doing the math, that's all. Obviously quite a bit of a downturn in commercial Aerospace. Why don't we go on to slide seven? This is our fun slide. Don and Elena kind of do this every quarter. They put together, we try to come up with things that are fun and interesting. These aren't necessarily the biggest programs, we want to make this a little bit entertaining for you, we try to come up with some cool programs, military programs. Top left, there's a B1B, it's not the B1B program, it's the LRASM, the Long Range Anti-Ship Missile that's being launched by the B1B. We produce parts using Park materials for that program. Avio Aster 30 Air Defense Missile, those are rocket nozzle materials, ablative materials that go into that program. The F-15 Eagle, 104 to zero, do you know what that means? This is in combat, 104 wins, zero losses, so it's not even fair. We produce materials for radomes for the F-15. We have the JSTARS parts for cover assembly using Park materials. We have the pie chart here, kind of interesting. You see rocket nozzles are big, structures are big, drones are big. Radomes not as big, but still a really important segment for us. Okay, why don't we keep going? We've got a lot to cover here. Slide eight. Okay, we talked about we love our military programs, so just in fairness, we need to also say we love our commercial aircraft programs. We've got to give equal time to commercial. We've covered this. This is kind of a review slide, you know the story if you've been listening to our calls. Single aisle versus wide body, a clear trend for single aisle. It was actually before the pandemic. It was because people want to fly direct rather than going to the hub and spoke system. Now it's even more so because the domestic aviation has recovered, is recovering, has recovered to some extent. International travel probably a ways off. Domestic, think of single aisle for domestic. For international, think of a wide body. Our view, if you want to be in commercial aircraft, at least now, you want to be in single aisle. There are three major single-aisle programs. We're in two of the three. We think those are the two you want to be on. No offense to the MAX. We wish it well. Hopefully, it'll do really well in the future. We're very happy to be on the A320neo program and also the COMAC C919 program. We check two of the three boxes, and we say if you want to be in single aisle, which we do, those are two boxes we want to check. That's our opinion. We think we're ideally positioned, partly by luck in the commercial aircraft industry. I think we're kind of being nice to ourselves by saying partly by luck. I would say mostly by luck that we're just very well positioned. Slide nine. Emerging commercial aviation, emerging from the abyss, and it certainly was an abyss. Higher jet fuel prices and environmental concerns provide extra motivation for airlines to more quickly replace the less fuel-efficient legacy aircraft, the more fuel-efficient modern aircraft, such as the A320 family. A year ago, fuel prices were downward, saying that's kind of an impediment for the new aircraft, no more fuel-efficient aircraft. Now fuel prices are not so good. They're very high. It's a little concerning. The environmental concerns are in place whether fuel prices are high or low, the higher fuel prices provide extra economic incentive for the airlines to go to the more fuel-efficient aircraft, of course. China domestic aviation. Domestic has recovered to pre-COVID levels, even greater, depending who you ask. That's very positive for single aisle. U.S. domestic aviation recovered a lot, like 75% of pre-COVID levels. Expecting a full recovery 2022. Very positive for single aisle. Just kind of an interesting little anecdote. I don't know if you saw this. Two new U.S. domestic airlines that recently announced they're launching. They don't plan to buy, from what they say, don't plan to buy airplanes from programs Park is on, but still a very good sign of optimism about the U.S. domestic aviation market. Very good news for single aisle. I think a year ago, people said, "That is just not possible. Nobody's going to start an airline in the U.S., maybe ever." That was the pessimism at the time. Let's go on to slide 10. This is also a review slide. We provide the slide pretty much every quarter. I think the first item, we have the LTA started in 2019 through 2029. It's a requirements contract. Middle River Aerostructure Systems, MRAS, that's a subsidiary of ST Engineering Aerospace. What's the GE connection? Why are we talking about GE Aviation? Why are all these programs GE Aviation programs? Because Middle River, MRAS, was a subsidiary of GE Aviation until about, I think, two years ago. It was sold to ST Engineering Aerospace, the GE Aviation legacy programs, the GE Aviation programs, used MRAS, which was part of GE Aviation for all the nacelle structures and thrust reversal structures. That's the connection there. Redundant factory, we'll talk about that a little later. It's just about done. When we signed up that LTA with MRAS, we said, "Okay, well, we'll go ahead, and now we'll build a redundant factory." Why are we doing that? Well, next item. Sole source for composite materials for engine nacelles and thrust reversers for multiple MRAS programs. The whole A320neo family of airplanes with those LEAP-1A engines. That's the first five items. The Boeing 747-8, the COMAC C919, COMAC ARJ21, which is the regional jet for China, and the Bombardier Global 7500. You see the problem here is that if something happened to our one plant, it's actually a major crisis almost immediately for all these aircraft programs. It was very proper and understandable that they asked us to build a redundant factory as part of our signing of LTA, and we did that. It was actually, I think, a handshake, but we are people of our word, whether it's the right or not. Top right item, just quickly, there's also a component we produce for those Passport 20 engines. That's not part of the MRAS LTA. That's actually through GE Aviation still, and we supply one of their contractors. A picture of the legendary Boeing 747-8 nacelles. I love this picture because it gives you a perspective on these nacelles are huge. I mean, look at the kind of background there, and these nacelles are all Park materials. Not only themselves, the thrust reverser structures, and for Boeing, some internal fixed structures as well for the 747, I should say. Let's go on to slide 11. How we doing on time? Pushing ahead here. Okay, let's do an update on these specific GE Aviation programs. The A320neo family. By the way, we added the A319neo. That's part of the family. Not talked about that much, but there are some sales, so that's part of the family, and that uses those LEAP-1A engines, meaning when they use those LEAP-1A engines, it's our program. Definitely in a ramp mode, I would say. Airbus, just some information, Airbus delivered 57 neo family of aircraft in March. This is from Airbus. This is not industry gossip or analyst opinions, that kind of stuff. Airbus plans to increase the A320 family of aircraft production rate from 40, which it currently is at per month, to 43 per month in Q3, 45 per month in Q4. Just if you want to do some math, I don't know, I like doing this. Remember that the A320neo family of aircraft, they have two engines. One is a LEAP-1A engine. That's the program we're on. They also have a Pratt engine. Now, each airplane has two engines. You got to remember that when you're doing your math. Just FYI, I'm not telling you what's going to happen in the future because I don't know, but if you look at the May edition of Aero Engine News, it says that the LEAP-1A, which is CFM. CFM is a joint venture between GE and Safran. LEAP-1A engines, that's about 61% market share of all of the firm orders for engines for an A320neo family of aircraft, okay? If you like doing math, that's the current situation. I'm not saying what will happen in the future because we don't know that, but it's about 61% market share. Two engines, but 61%. Think of it that way. Let's keep going. This is really pretty important. During Airbus's Q1 investor call, on April 29, 2021, the Airbus CEO, I'm not going to pronounce or even try his first name, but I think it's Mr. Faury, and I'm probably not pronouncing that name correctly. Sorry about that. A lot of French friends. Stated there will be a steep ramp up. This is a quote, a direct quote, "A steep ramp up in 2022 and 2023 for the single-aisle aircraft." That means the A320neo family of aircraft. Steep ramp up," that's his quote, for 2022 and 2023. He also commented during the call that Airbus has provided scenarios to the supply chain to determine the fastest possible ramp-up of single-aisle aircraft production the supply chain can reasonably support. You get what's going on here? From my perspective, these guys are optimistic. They're trying to push up the rate as much as possible for the A320neo, and now they're trying to figure out what the supply chain can support. A really important thing to understand. That's the A320neo story, except on slide 12, a little bit more. Still on the A320neo family. A321XLR news. This is part of that family, using the LEAP-1A engine. First test aircraft, sorry, nearing final assembly. First flight expected in 2022. Certification entering the service in 2023. I mean, that's kind of around the corner. Aircraft timeframes, in electronics in the old days, that would be forever. Two years in aircraft is like tomorrow. Now, many expect this airplane to be a game changer. Very significant range. Holds a lot of people, and the theory is it will replace wide bodies for many missions, at least some missions. The key thing is Boeing does not have an answer for this aircraft. Boeing was reportedly considering the 5x, which would be an answer to the XLR. In my opinion, they really need to do it because they don't have an answer for it. The problem, I guess, for Boeing a little bit is that this XLR is going to be in production and being sold in two years, and Boeing hasn't even announced this 5x yet, so I have no idea what timeframe they'll be talking about, but it's going to be into the future. With kind of a new airplane category, I think the general rule is it's always good to be first. Maybe not always, but usually good to be first. Still on 12, I think this could be a really important program for Park, the XLR. Part of the A320 family, but real important program for Park. Let's go to slide 13, the Global 7500. I think they recently sold their 50th unit. This airplane's in production and doing well in the ramp mode, ramping up, which is really good news for us. COMAC ARJ21. This is a Chinese airplane made by COMAC. It's a regional jet. It's in production. Mostly for the China market for now. They're ramping up. It's in production, ramping up. Slide 14. COMAC C919 with the LEAP-1C engines. COMAC has indicated they intend to certify and begin deliveries of this aircraft before the end of 2021. That's this year. I guess we'll see what happens. I don't know whether that's correct or not. I haven't heard any updates on that. Whether it's 2021 or some other date after that, this is I think a very big potential program for Park. This is Airbus's attempt to be a real player in commercial aerospace. This is their answer to the 737 MAX and the A320. This is their single-aisle airplane, and you see a picture right here. I suspect it's going to be big. I suspect originally they're going to sell inside China. Remember, domestic aviation, single aisle. Eventually, I believe they'd like to sell this outside of China. Boeing 747-8. Boeing announced it will terminate production of the Queen of Skies in 2022. 12 orders left to fill. Long live the Queen. As some of you know, I have a real fondness for the 747-8. One of the things that makes it a real sentimental thing for us is the first program we got on with GE Aviation was the 747-8. Our first shipment for these programs was February 28, 2014, at about 11:00 P.M. It was kind of a pretty exciting day for Park, actually. We have a special fondness for the 747. I took this picture, actually, at the Anchorage Airport. This airplane, you see the gear is down about to land. Slide 15. A commercial Aerospace year in review. Armageddon revisited. You know about all this stuff, airplanes parked by the thousands. Donna did a real nice job with these pictures. Airline terminals were ghost towns. Yep. If you weren't there, you heard about it. Airplanes flying almost empty. We've seen lots of pictures of, like, two people on an airplane. 1,000 Of flights canceled. 1,000 and 1,000 of employees were laid off throughout the commercial aircraft and commercial aviation industries. That's Armageddon. Almost all news about commercial aircraft industry was negative, very negative. This again is the analysts and the commentators and the people that get interviewed on TV, that I guess a lot of people listen to. It was maybe not a good thing because that kind of becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Aviation analysts and commentators predicted full recovery will not come for many years or may never come. Maybe it's over. Maybe the commercial Aerospace industry is a thing of the past. There just won't be an industry anymore almost. End of days, they were talking about. Slide 16. At Park, we did not completely buy all that doom and gloom stuff. We do not buy that the end of days were at hand. It doesn't really matter. Either way, we made our arrangements with MRAS to maintain minimum monthly baseline critical mass production levels to preserve Park's ability to ramp up production when needed. We covered this, I think during the last couple of calls at least. If you listened to our prior calls, you know about this. It was very important for MRAS and Park that we did this. We didn't want to allow our production levels of the type of product we make for MRAS to go below the critical mass because we didn't know. I guess we didn't know anything. Nobody did. We believe we're going to need to ramp back up one day. It ended up being approximately $700,000-$900,000 a month. The minimums were in terms of units because it was a production thing, not a sales thing. It turns out it was approximately $700,000, $900,000 per month, starting about July. Even though layoffs were widespread and pervasive through the commercial aircraft industry, we laid off nobody, none of our people, through the all darkest and seemingly hopeless days of the commercial Aerospace industry. Listening to all these guys on TV talking about the end of days, it's over. Everybody we knew was laying people off. We did not do that. It turns out that decision to not lay off people is critically important to Park because we're ramping back up. We have to go try to rehire these people and call them back, which I know a lot of other companies are doing. We never let them go to begin with. A reason for not letting go wasn't only that. It's because we don't like doing that kind of thing, as we discussed many times in the past. Slide 17. Continuing the same theme. We spoke at length during our Q1, Q2, and Q3 investor calls last year about the significant divergence from and mismatch between the minimum monthly baseline critical mass production amounts agreed to with MRAS and the then current end market requirements for GE programs with Parker Hannifin. I'm not talking about now, I'm talking about then. Airbus always maintained they were going to stay at 40. They weren't going to go under 40. All the analysts, not all, I'm being fair. A lot of the analysts and commentators, oh, they're going to have to, the other shoe is going to drop. All right, fine. It didn't drop. We were producing with our minimum amount, about half level of what was needed to support the then market, not the now market, the then market. The inventory destocking. This is what happened. Everybody was so intimidated, so frightened, so afraid. Like I said, the analysts and commentators didn't help very much. The people weren't willing to buy anything. People weren't willing to build anything. They were just kind of selling inventory down because basically the world was coming to an end. What did we say? We said to you, said, "Inventory cannot be de stocked to below zero." You can't have a negative number unless you involve very creative accounting, I guess. The divergence was mathematically unsustainable. I mean, how long can you sustain that kind of mismatch? We didn't know how long, but it was not going to be sustainable. Unless the aircraft end market took another dramatic step down, the day of reckoning was coming. We told you that. This was our opinion. Well, it came. Destocking has ended. All the GE Aviation programs that Parker is on are under ramp mode, except for the 747, whose rates are unchanged. Let's go to slide 18. The ramp is looking steep. This is just an update from the slide we did last quarter for perspective. GE Aviation program sales for the following periods were. These are calendar year periods. Just want to mention that, because normally you talk fiscal years. Calendar year 2019, $29.3 million. Calendar year 2020, oops, $15.8 million. The last six months of calendar year 2020, $5 million. $5 million, that's a $10 million run rate. If you think about it, $700,000, $900,000, that was a minimum. Maybe $800,000 kind of in the middle of that range, 800 times 12 is about $10 million. That kind of makes sense. We're running at a $10 million rate during the last half of calendar 2020. Okay. Calendar year 2021. Calendar year still calendar year forecast for GE Aviation program sales based on new forecast we recently received from the customer, $25.5 million. What happened? Last time we talked to you, it was $24 million. Well, it moved up. Is it done moving up? I don't know. We'll have to see about that. What does it mean? This is not a forecast to you. We're just telling you the forecast we received. Our forecast to you would be done fiscal year basis. Normally, we provide ranges when we give you this forecast. This is just to give you perspective on how steep the ramp is. $10 million rate to the $25.5 million rate in a period of what? Like a month. That's perspective. Slide 19. Continuing, the ramp mode. We're in the ramp mode. In addition, this is really important. In addition, we recently received an updated long-term forecast for GE Aviation. This is not just a 2021 forecast. This is 2021 through 2029. The balance of the firm pricing LTA, remember that was 2019 to 2029. Obviously, we're only talking 2021 to 2029 now in terms of the updated forecast. The past is the past. Here is something really key. On an apples-to-apples basis, the total updated forecast GE Aviation program sales for that 2021 to 2029 calendar year period are very similar to the total forecast of GE Aviation program sales from the pre-COVID forecast for that same period. We're basically back to where we were pre-COVID. That's the forecast we received. How is the updated forecast constructed? Okay. I think we told you this before. We were given units. We know how much materials used, what types of material used by unit. We know what the selling price is for the materials, so we just build it from there. We build a very detailed long-term forecast, big spreadsheets, lots and lots of detail. That's how we build it. Our opinion, the updated long-term forecast that we're talking about now may not fully capture the steep ramp-up of the A320neo aircraft family production in 2023, predicted by the Airbus CEO just a couple of weeks ago. We say that because we think that those comments came after we received the forecast. Also, my guess, opinion is that the forecast may not capture the XLR sales opportunities. The reason I say that it's because a lot of people think the XLR is going to be a big deal, and in the long-term forecast, we don't really see a bump, which would be tied to the introduction of the XLR. I mean, it's in there, I'm just saying we're just kind of wondering about it. An important question. There is some upside. We think maybe the forecast didn't fully capture these two things. The other side of the equation is how will the commercial aerospace manufacturing supply chain respond to the steep ramp? That's a big question. Remember, the Airbus CEO has said they went out to the supply chain to figure out what the supply chain can support. There's two different things are kind of pulling in different directions, I guess. Slide 20. How are we responding to the ramp-up? It's all about our people. Park's people count is currently 106. What the heck happened here? Remember last quarter, it was 107, and we told you we plan to hire 15, 20 people. Where are those people? We haven't increased our people. Why? Maybe people are getting paid to stay home. Who is that helping? We hear a lot on the financial news about all these companies that can't really reopen, can't ramp up, they can't hire people. It's really terrible. The government's paying them to stay home. Don't hear too much about the people. Is this helping those people? You might want to think about that a little bit. These are people. Some of them now haven't worked for a year. They're home, getting fat. Their minds turning to mush maybe. They're losing their edge. Some of these people are wasted people now. They may not have the ability to go back to work again, maybe ever. Look, if you're off for a few weeks, fine. A year? Maybe some of these souls are broken souls. What about them? They're people too. Their lives are being destroyed. At least some of them. It's funny, that's not part of the discussion. It's always about the businesses which can't reopen. I appreciate that. I think that's a very good point. Why is nobody thinking about those people? Are they being helped by this? I have an opinion about who's being helped, and it's not them. Don't even worry about us, we'll take care of it. As usual, Park's people stepping up, getting the job done. Corey's done a magnificent job of kind of organizing a workforce so that we're able to meet the ramp-up. We don't talk about disappointing customers. That's not in our vocabulary. One way or another, we'll get the job done. Slide 21. How are we responding? Thank goodness for our Customer Flexibility Program. We talked about this a lot. A little more detail. Total current participation, 80%. We got of 80%, two job categories, 47%, 3, 30%, four, 18%, five job categories, 5%. Without this Customer Flexibility Program, it would just be very difficult to get the job done. This Customer Flexibility Program, it's just a godsend. It helped us so much during the downturn, to keep things going, not laying people off, and it's helping us incredibly now with the incredible flexibility to respond as we need to. Thank goodness we didn't lay anybody off in the darker days in the commercial aircraft industry because we didn't have to hire anybody back. They're all there. Our team is there. That's not the reason, the only reason. The other reason is we just don't believe in letting people go. It's not how we think about things. Those people are precious. Thank goodness for Park's great people. Without them, we'd not be able to get the job done. Park is very fortunate and blessed to have the great people it has. Let's go on to slide 22. GE Aviation program. How we doing on time? Oh, boy. Maybe 145 minutes. GE Aviation program, sales history and forecast estimates. The top part of it is the history, which you're familiar with. Q4 was $4.4 million. I think that's pretty much what we predicted during our Q3 call. Total, $13.2 million. Look, that's less for 2021, sorry, fiscal 2021. It looks like it's less than half of fiscal 2020, which is not a big shock, I don't think, to anybody. Our forecast, Q1, $6.5 million-$7 million. That's pretty much booked. Q2, $6.5 million-$7 million. For the fiscal year, $26 million-$28 million. Is that right? Well, I don't know. It could be. I guess, it depends on what happens in part with the A320 and what Mr. Faury said, this Airbus CEO that we just talked about. The other side of the equation is always, can the supply chain meet the ramp-up? I'm not talking about us, but if any part of the supply chain not able to support the ramp-up, that means the ramp-up itself may be slowed down a little bit. Again, a picture of the 747-8 departing Anchorage. You see a lot of pictures of the 747-8. As a CEO, I get picture authority, and I love the 747-8. Even though it's not our biggest program, I just love the airplane. I love putting pictures of the airplane in the presentation. Somebody asked about this. It's actually less than $2 million of revenue for us per year. Even though it has a very sentimental value for us, it's not one of the bigger programs for GE Aviation. I just want you to be aware of it because the program's being ended. Slide 23. We have a little forecast here for you. First, the top box is history. Just for perspective, the history, we covered history in an earlier slide. Just to remind you, kind of broken record stuff here, that essential component for missile programs, this is last year, 2021 Q3, about $2 million in Q4, about $3.5 million, just to keep that in mind. Let's go to our forecast. We haven't given a forecast for a while. We gave an ish forecast, like three-ish or four-ish. We're back to trying to give you a forecast. We think there's still a lot of uncertainty, but we feel a little bit better, so we're providing you with a forecast. Q1 sales, $13.3 million or $13.8 million. That's less than Q4, as you can see. Again, in Q1, we don't have the sales, that essential component. $3.6 million to $4.1 million of EBITDA, so we're getting back up there. Just so you know, Q1, this is something we're not sure about. We have forecast. We do P&Ls every week, and we test our forecasts. The gross margin in Q1 should be, we're predicting, quite a bit over 35%. I'm not saying that's sustainable. If you look at Q2, it's interesting because it's saying the revenues are going up, but we're looking at the adjusted EBITDA down a little bit. First of all, sorry for this broken record stuff, but there's $1 million of that essential component sales in Q2, remember, very low margins. Quarter- to- quarter, the mix changes. Since we're doing a lot more military, we're going to have quarter-to-quarter mix changes, and that's going to affect our bottom line. With the GE Aviation business, there's really no mix change. It is what it is. Military, a lot of programs, and one quarter it'll be more of this, one quarter it'll be more of that, and that's going to up and down our EBITDA from quarter- to- quarter. For the year, looking at $55 million to $62 million revenue, $13.5 million to $16.5 million EBITDA. I think fiscal 2020, it's in the prior part of the presentation, was $60 million of revenue and $13 million EBITDA. We're saying, yeah, we're kind of back there, maybe even a bit better than that. Just a couple of things I want to mention. These are taken into account when we do our forecast, and we could be wrong, but like I told you earlier, and we've covered this many times, we give you a forecast, we're saying, this is what we think is going to happen based upon, of course, working hard. This is not a walk in the park thing or anything like that. We're working very hard doing our jobs. We're still looking to hire people. We haven't given up. We have desire to hire maybe eight or nine people now, maybe some additional later on. There's real cost involved with people. Entry level people, they're expensive, over $50,000 soaking wet per person. A new plant start-up, there's going to be some costs involved with new plant start-up. Raw material costs are going up. I mean, inflation is quite a concern. With the LTA with GE Aviation, those raw materials are locked in. We couldn't have done an LTA with GE Aviation if we didn't have an LTA from our suppliers. Most of the other customers, not LTAs, we quote quite often. What we do is we unfortunately raise our prices to take into account the raw material cost increases. That's what we do. It's not good, and we know where that ends when prices keep going up and up and up. It's not a good thing. Things like utilities are going up, supplies going up, shipping going up. We normally have that covered as either part of our selling price or our raw material purchase price. There's also, I would say, we all speak to ourselves, serious concerns about the economy, what's going on, how it's being managed, inflation, interest rates, and things like that. We don't really spend a lot of time thinking about it, but we can't deny we're still living in the world out there. We do what we need to do every day. I don't think it would be proper for us to say we're immune from what goes on in the outside world. Okay. Why don't we go to slide 24, updating our expansion. Our budget's now $19 million. It was $18 million last time we spoke to what happened. We started with $20 and a half, I think. We pulled it down to $18 on the theory that business is very slow, so let's kind of hold back a couple of things, see what happens so we can make the decisions later on. With the ramp-up and everything, it's increased to $19 million. Spending to date, about $15, I guess, do the math, about $4 million to go. Completion is basically next month. Little things will be worked on for a while, but the completion is basically next month. We start the manufacturing trials for the major equipment, which are pictured below in the bottom left and right corners, July 2021. The qualification runs for MRES in September 2021 is what's planned. These two items of equipment, they're huge, and it's hard to give you a perspective on how big they are because some of the stuff we don't want our competitors to see. They're able to see our presentations as well. We kind of took a funny perspective on this equipment, the tape line and film line. Top right, a picture of our new offices. The office is open. My office in the top right of the picture. You see at the bottom middle, it's a nice picture because you could see that on the left is the new facility, and the right is the existing facility, except with the new offices. Toward the back between the two of them is that's the passageway. Off to the right of the existing facility, there's also the warehouse, but that's not captured in this picture. That is the story of our expansion. I want to try to wrap it up here. Slide 25. Park's reflections on its 2021 fiscal year was their finest hour. Well, let's talk about that. Park had its share of tragedy and heartbreak during the year, the kind of heartbreak that does not go away. At Park, we don't quit, we don't give up, we don't back down. That's just not what we do. It's not in our nature. We keep going. We push forward with our major expansion when some others slashed their capital spending. We stayed true to our principles when maybe some others didn't. We did not sell out, maybe some others did. We did not lay off anybody when so many others did, by the thousands and thousands. Park's people are precious. The Park family stuck together and saw through the darkest days together. At Park, we're a family, we have each other's backs. Slide 26. Park is a strange and unusual company filled with wonderful and special people. We're very fortunate when it comes to our people. We're not like the others. At Park, we play for keeps. We're not fooling around. We're looking to make an impact here. Park's 2021 fiscal year may have been Park's best year ever. I've been with the company since 1988. I can't speak to before then. Maybe in the '50s and the early days in Woodside, Queens, maybe there were some great years then right at the beginning, way before my time. I can tell you without hesitation that, in my opinion, the 2021 fiscal year was Park's best year since 1988 when I joined the company. I say that without hesitation. I can't think of another year that would compare. I think our best year ever. That's my opinion, anyway. Yes, our finest hour. We always save the last for a picture of one of our crews, which we love to do. The top row, that's Guadalupe and Juan. The bottom row, José, who's the lead, Joshua, and Serafin. What's interesting is it says Park second shift solution treater and film line crew. Wait a minute, those are two different things. Well, what's going on here? This is the customer flexibility program. Each one of these five guys has been approved to operate both lines, and that's a big deal. You don't put somebody on these lines with, "Okay, here you go. Just hired him." No, it doesn't work that way. You see how it works with customer flexibility? These guys are able to move back and forth between those two major lines, and that was so important to us during the downturn and so important to us now when we're trying to ramp up. That's how it works. I think we're at the end of the presentation. Slide 27 is our thank you slide. Operator, we'll be happy to take questions to the extent that there are any. As a reminder, to ask a question, you'll need to press star one on your telephone. To withdraw your question, press the star key. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Once again, that is star one if you would like to ask a question. One moment for questions. Our first question comes from Brad Hathaway from Far View. Your line is now open. Thank you very much, and congrats, Brian, on getting through such a tough year, really impressive. Thank you, Brad. I appreciate your willingness to give us a 2022 forecast and all the commentary about the ramp up that you're seeing. Given that things seem to be getting better and you kind of have previously commented on kind of prior forecasts just being shifted a little to the right, I was curious if you had any thoughts on those prior forecasts, and also when you will feel comfortable perhaps giving us a long-term forecast again. As we just commented, we're forecasting for the current fiscal year. It looks kind of like the 2020 fiscal year before the calamity occurred for the world and the industry. Our forecast may be a little bit better, particularly EBITDA, kind of right in that range for top line. I don't know how to answer that question except maybe one way to look at it is that's kind of our restarting point. Obviously, before we go out with a new long-term forecast, we can't just kind of take our old forecast and kind of roll it out or push it back to the right by two years. That really wouldn't be right. We have to take into account everything we know now and all the updates and all the new developments, there are significant new developments, I think most of which are positive, actually. When we'll be ready for that, I don't know. I don't really feel like it'll be next quarter. Let me just say, I would hope that before the end of the year, this current year, we'll be able to roll out the forecast for more than just one year. Even the one-year forecast, as I said, there are uncertainties that we're still dealing with. It's not like kind of a stable world right now. We felt good enough that we're able to provide something to you. I don't know how to answer that second question. I would just say, again, I hope that by the end of the year. You know what's happening is we feel like we're getting a lot more useful information. What we're doing is we're really listening to what Airbus says, what Bombardier says, what COMAC says, what Boeing says, for commercial I'm talking about, and kind of tuning out all the analysts and everything and the commentators, because they really have not been helpful and have been kind of wrong. It's really great, like for the A320 to be on that program because forget about what everybody else says, how about the Airbus CEO? It's so helpful to be able to tie what we're doing to what Airbus says. We can do it. We can do it with a pretty good precision once we know what they're talking about. I don't know. Sorry to not give you a better answer, but I think that's all I can think of right now. No, anyway, it's good to see everything after a tough year, all the programs seem to be moving pretty positively. That's great. In terms of M&A, is there anything you can kind of update on what you've seen there? Yeah. I think last quarter, we talked a little bit and we thought that last year we'd be able to get some distressed sales that didn't materialize. Our advisors told us that's because the Fed made it possible for people to hang on. We're pretty active in two areas. We're actually putting a preliminary bid in one company, I think, later in this week. We're still looking. We're trying to find niche things. We're trying to find things that everybody and their brother and all the financial buyers are not piling on, because it just drives the price up so much. The other thing is that we've identified a certain product area that's very closely related to composite structures and composite materials. We're doing some pretty good research, I would say, in that area. We've actually reached out to several companies that do have operations in that area. I guess, at this point, we won't specify, but it's something that would be used by a company producing composite structures in addition to the composite materials. We think it's a really good tie-in, and some of our customers have actually helped us in that regard as well. We're optimistic. Optimistic, that's probably not the right word to say it these days. M&A is more difficult. We feel better about that than just going to the auctions, let me put it that way. These are companies, some are private, some are divisions of large companies. They're probably not going to be for sale. We're trying to initiate the discussions, and we'll see how those go. The other area I just want to mention is there are projects we work on, and we know about the joint venture discussion in Asia. There are other projects that we work on with some of our large customers that wouldn't be really M&A, but would involve a significant investment of capital. I guess I would talk about those maybe three things. We certainly haven't given up or let down at all, even though we have this concern about these companies being bid up right now with, I guess M&A inflation. I don't know, maybe it won't last, maybe that will reverse, we'll see. Yeah. Obviously, we'll let you know as soon as we have something to report. We don't have anything to report right now. I guess the message I would send is that we're still working at it, and we haven't given up or just decided to take a year off or anything like that, or wait till valuations come back down. Understood. In your mind, obviously, if things continue to improve, one would think that the M&A environment might become harder in the future, unless you can find one of these deals that are kind of pushed to you or something really niche. Is there a point at which you decide that the cash on the balance sheet is not going to be usable for some kind of investment, and you consider other alternatives? Sure. There's a point. I don't know what that point is. Yeah, sure, there's a point. That's kind of an open question for us. I understand exactly what you're getting at least I think I do. I can't give you a date, but it's something in the back of our minds, absolutely. Yeah. Obviously, my preference would be that you find an excellent bolt-on acquisition. If you can do that would be fantastic. Thank you very much. Yeah, thank you. Just so you know, we feel the same way about it, thanks for that comment. Go ahead, sorry. I was just going to say, thank you very much. I appreciate all your efforts to generate the results you did in a pandemic year like last year is pretty incredible. Thank you very much for the effort. Thanks for your comments. Thank you. Again, ladies and gentlemen, if you have a question, that is star one. Again, if you'd like to ask a question, that is star one. Our next question comes from Len Cooper, private investor. Your line is now open. Hi, Brian. Sounds like you're busy bees. Yeah. Hey, Len, how you doing? I haven't heard from you in a little while. We're doing okay. We're hanging in. Okay, good. I just noticed a story saying that the U.S. is going to have a wind turbine farm. I think it'll be the first authorized by the government. Are we involved in that, or can we be involved in that? We don't want to be. Wind turbines are not a market area for us. If you look at companies that are involved, it's not really a very happy story. Those are low margin programs. We're Aerospace. That's pretty much it. We decided to go into Aerospace. We realized right from the start that we didn't know what the heck we're doing. You don't know what you don't know. Aerospace is such a huge and complex field that we felt, a small company, we don't have a bandwidth to get involved in other areas, boats or wind turbines or skateboards or whatever. Composites is used, obviously, in a lot of things. We're an Aerospace company. That's it. No wind turbines for us. Okay. It's just there's a lot of aerodynamics in those blades. Yes. Yeah, you're right. I think they're getting more sophisticated. I'm not an expert in it, but I think they're getting more sophisticated from an aerodynamic perspective as well. Okay. Thank you very much. That was a very interesting conversation. All the best. Okay. Well, thanks for checking in, Len. Nice to hear from you. Hopefully, we'll see you soon. Thank you. I'm showing no further questions. I would now like to turn the call back to Brian Shore for closing remarks. Okay. Thanks, operator. Thanks, everybody, for listening. I'm sorry, I said 45 minutes, I think we went past 45 minutes. I try to rush through it, there are always a lot of things you want to cover to help with perspective. Thanks again for listening in. Have a great day, and feel free to call us. Matt and I are available anytime you want to talk. We'll be talking to you fairly soon because our first quarter ends actually in just a couple of weeks, I think probably early July, we'll be doing our first quarter announcement. Okay. Take care. Have a great day. Goodbye now. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
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