Live? Okay. Very good. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to the Goldman Sachs Communicability and Technology Conference. My name is Jim Schneider. I'm the Senior Analyst here at Goldman Sachs. It's my pleasure to welcome Teradyne and CEO Greg Smith. We're happy to have you today. Glad to be here. Maybe just starting off high-level strategic for a second. Greg, you operate a diverse business today, both high-performance test and measurement at its core. If you think about the exposure across semiconductor tests, system-level tests, including industrial robotics and other areas, how do you think about Teradyne's business mix over the long run, and what objectives are you trying to drive the business going forward? Right now, I mean, Teradyne is sort of a tale of two businesses. We have these test businesses, and we've been in that business since 1960, right? It is a mature market, highly penetrated, and the way that that business really develops is through the introduction of new technology and segment shifts and share gain and loss in that space. Right now, for that test business, both product test and semi-test, we are in sort of the beginning of a significant growth period, driven primarily by AI, but it extends across all the different segments of product test and semiconductor test. The robotics business is a much newer thing. We've been in that business for 10 years. We got into it in 2015 with the acquisition of Universal Robots. It's a much earlier stage business. We are in a part of the robotics space called advanced robotics, high AI content, more flexible, more adaptable than sort of traditional industrial robotics. It's an early-stage business. We're in that primarily to capture the secular growth that we expect to happen in that space as physical AI becomes more of a thing. It is less predictable. It is sort of a chaotic early-stage market, but we believe that we have some really strong platform and technology advantages that will set us up for growth over the long- term. If you take a step back, I think you have these two very different businesses with a very similar setup over the midterm, that both of them are set up for significant growth over the next four to five years. One is going to be driven primarily by the end market changing towards the AI space, and the other one by it being an early-stage market that's poised for more growth. If we get back on stage five years from now and look back, what do you think is one thing that investors are going to be most surprised by? I think people are going to be kind of stunned by how strong Teradyne is in compute. Teradyne has historically been very, very strong in mobile and automotive in the test space, and we've been historically much, much lower share in the compute part of the market. Over the past couple of years, we've invested significant amounts of energy in R&D, sales and marketing, and applications to try to capture new customers in this space. I think if you look back five years from now, going backward, people are going to be like, "Wow, where did that come from?" It's like whenever they do the Grammys and they talk about best new artists, when they interview the best new artists, they're like, "I've been singing in clubs for a decade." That's sort of, I think, we've been doing the hard work to set up that share gain, and I think we're going to be looking back and seeing that it's occurred over that period. Interesting. Over the last couple of months, maybe can you talk about any kind of notable inflection in terms of the demand outlook that you see, or more importantly, the visibility you have into the business? We have more visibility, but I think the important thing to recognize is that sort of the normal cycles of the semiconductor test space have really changed. If you look back a couple of years, our business cycle was very much driven by sort of the ebb and flow of consumer demand. People buy new phones for Christmas, for Lunar New Year. There's this huge peak in demand, and people could sort of set their clock in terms of when the testers would be put in. Now, with the rise of AI, and especially cloud AI, that's driven by the capital budgets of the hyperscalers and these huge companies. It is far more related to whatever schedule they've set versus anything in terms of the actual calendar. It's become like we have a pretty good idea in terms of which customers we have and the business potential associated with them. We have much less certainty in terms of the timing of that business than we used to. Interesting. Got it. Maybe you've coined a term called VIP. Can you talk about what that market consists of, what are the subsegments of that demand, and talk about where you think your share of that market is today and what you hope to achieve in the two to three-year plus range. The term VIP stands for Vertically Integrated Platform, and it's really around the notion of cloud computing and AI. A lot of people talk about this as hyperscalers, but we felt like that was a somewhat incomplete term because there's also these huge investments in AI going into vertically- integrated platforms and things like automotive. We wanted to try and broaden that scope a little bit to capture customers that were behaving the same way, which was they wanted to control the entire offering all the way from silicon to either cloud services or products in the end market. If you look at this space, it didn't exist like five years ago. There was essentially nothing. The only player in the space that was offering a complete vertically- integrated platform in compute was really Google with the sort of early generations of TPU. Now all of the other cloud service providers are really getting into this space, and some of them are scaling to a significant fraction of the merchant GPU folks. If we look in 2024, we thought there was about $400 million of testers that were bought for these Vertically Integrated Platform customers, and we think that that could grow to like $800 million or more by the time we get out to 2028. It's growing rapidly. It's still not the majority of the whole compute space, but it's certainly a part of that space that's growing fast. In terms of the market share? If you look at it, we aggregate VIP compute with merchant compute and networking into something that we call the compute space. Our share in compute is really, for merchant compute, very, very low. For networking, it's very high. For VIP compute, it's kind of 50%. If you put it all together, in 2024, it was probably 10%- 15%. In 2025, it'll be a bit higher than that, but still in the teens. Looking forward over time, we expect that we'll be able to continue to increase share from there. Got it. Now, you know, provided the kind of initial 2026 outlook and back at your Investor Day earlier this year, we're getting closer to 2026 now. Maybe give us any kind of incremental update, if you have any, on what your expectations for next year might be. To just sort of flip back to what I said, predictability is the thing that's really missing right now. If you look both from a TAM perspective and also from a revenue perspective, there are a bunch of very high-volume devices that are positioned right on the cusp between 2025 and 2026. We're not sure how that will influence the TAM and revenue in 2025, and we certainly don't know how 2026 will develop. Just to sort of put it into context, coming into 2025, both us and our major competitor had the size of the compute space at about half of what it's going to end up being. It's a very, very difficult market to predict because you have a small number of devices with really strict quality requirements and a lot of advanced technologies, both in the device itself and also in the packaging technology and the HBM memories and everything else. There are so many moving parts that there are a lot of X factors against the TAM. The one thing that I'll say is we expect the overall market, both memory and SoC, to be stronger in 2026 than it was in 2025, but we can't really put a number on it. If you think about those more traditional markets, SoC and memory tests, where do you think your share is at now, and in which one do you have more confidence in incremental share gains going forward? Right now, I think we're positioned for significant share gain in memory from 2024- 2025, and we think that will probably continue at a moderate rate through the rest of the midterm. For SoC, our share has been coming down as the whole market pivoted to AI compute, and the large merchant GPU makers really leaned into huge investments, and we didn't have access to that. We're kind of in the 30%- 40% range against the SoC part of the market. We believe that we're positioned to grow from that base, going out in time, both because of share gain in compute, but also because the other elements of SoC, the mobile part of the market, and the auto and industrial part of the market are at a pretty low point right now. We expect a segment-related recovery in both of those. We think there's a lot of shared tailwinds going into 2026 and beyond. As we head into the back half of this year, how do you think about the sort of step up in your VIP business going forward? Maybe as it tracked in the beginning of 2026, talk about the sort of mix between in terms of that piece of your total SoC business going forward. There is no doubt that AI and networking are kind of the hottest parts of the whole test equipment market right now. We think that there are a number of high-volume sockets in both the networking space and the accelerator space that are right on the cusp between end of 2025 and beginning of 2026. In aggregate, they're pretty impactful, but in terms of exact timing between Q4 and Q1, we really don't have a good picture right now. Okay. On the merchant GPU space, you've talked about sort of the prospects for getting into a very large potential customer there. How's the visibility on that customer account going? Do you expect it driving meaningful scale at that customer if you're able to win it next year, or is that something that's more of a beyond next year, beyond 2026 opportunity? Yeah. Just to be as clear and careful as I can be, we have not won anything yet. Let me tell you a little bit about the sort of general motivation for this. The merchant GPU players have generally had a single-source test strategy, and that was to make their operations as efficient as possible. They have a few different SKUs that they're trying to ship against. They're not sure what the volume will be for each one of them. By having a single platform, they're able to utilize that fleet much more effectively. That's a really good strategy when you are a minority player in the overall ecosystem, when TSMC has much bigger customers and the OSATs have much bigger customers. Now that merchant GPUs are such an important part of the AI accelerator space, they're actually a significant portion of the total demand for test equipment. A big factor for both of those players is supply chain resilience. They want to be able to be sure that they'll be able to get capacity of HBM memories, of packaging, of test services, of test equipment. That is the motivation that they're looking at in terms of qualifying multiple vendors in this space. We're attempting to do that. We think that they have an interest in setting up a competitive environment between us and our competition. The question is timing. When you're trying to qualify against these complex parts, it takes a while. I would expect that since they have a broad range of parts that are on a competitive platform, we would be looking at a gradual increase in share, not like a flip the switch and all of a sudden it's an even split. I think there will be revenue next year, but I don't think it's going to be, it's going to be a slow climb in terms of market share. Fair. Okay. Maybe to switch gears a little bit and talk about your industrial robotics business. There's a lot of renewed optimism for that business, I think, in the investor community, particularly around a key marquee customer there. When do you think that business becomes meaningful, that customer in terms of revenue? Is that something that is next year or is it beyond that timeframe? I think just to set a little bit of context, at the same time that we're very excited about this large customer opportunity, the end market macro is terrible for robotics right now. If you look at our robotics business, our strongest region is Europe, and our strongest segments are automotive and metal and machining. If you wanted to pick the worst places to be, that's kind of it, right? We are in the midst of trying to reposition that into more faster growing end segments like logistics, pharma, semiconductor, and electronics. That work is ongoing. We're also trying to do work to try and focus on solution providers and very large customers. Even though we're really excited about this large customer opportunity, we've got some hard work to do between now and when that starts to contribute meaningful revenue. In 2025, we're doing that hard work, and we'll have sort of early revenue to support new product introduction work at that large customer. Next year will be sort of the beginning of volume deployments, but it's not going to be until 2027 that it's a very significant part of the revenue mix. Given the visibility you have right now, you said obviously there's some cyclical weakness across this end market broadly. How do you think about your ability to grow that robotics business in 2026? Obviously it sounds like you have more confidence in 2027. Right. In 2025, it's really all about trying to constrain our OpEx and right-size the business on a path towards positive operating margin. We're focusing on getting the investment against this new large customer and to focus on getting into these new segments and trying to be as careful as we can about spending everywhere else. We're really focused on spend discipline. Into 2026, we think that the large customer will ramp, and we also believe that the other work that we're doing in logistics, pharma, electronics, and semiconductor will start to pay off. We expect that 2026 will deliver modest growth, and we expect stronger growth in 2027. Great. With respect to mobile, I think you previously talked about sort of $800 million TAM as being kind of the right ballpark. Yeah, for 2025. Yeah. Do you think that's still like a reasonable expectation? Do you see it as a growth TAM going forward? Maybe you just frame for us your exposure to Apple and sort of the key drivers that you see for that business and that customer going forward. I won't comment about any specific customers, but just in terms of mobile, yeah, in 2025, we think this is kind of an $800 million-ish TAM overall. Just to sort of set context, that's pretty bad. It used to be kind of more like a $2 billion TAM was kind of a good year for mobile. When we look forward, we think that there are prospects for TAM recovery in mobile starting in 2026. That's really driven around two factors. One is if you look in both the Android ecosystem and the iOS ecosystem, there is a significant inflection in compute power that's coming to phones in the late 2026 product introductions. In order to deliver that inflection in compute, there's a flip to latest process technology, so 2 nm gate all around, and also new packaging technologies and memory technologies that allow them to get into thinner form factors with wider memory bandwidths. What that means in terms of this change, in terms of the memory technology, is that the test intensity per part is going to go up significantly. Even if the unit volumes in the mobile space stay about the same, the amount of tests per device is going to go up a significant amount. We think that that's a setup to drive the need for additional capacity in that space in 2026. The question is kind of how much. That's going to be dependent on the unit growth. If everybody in the world gets really, really excited about foldable phones in 2026, then that could be a really good tailwind. If non-Chinese phone makers really struggle in China, that could be a headwind. There are these puts and takes against unit volume that we're really not sure. We think that mobile will be better, but we don't think it will be back to like the 2020, 2021 boom days. Yeah. Maybe we want to go and kind of finish on the memory market for a second. DRAM has been the lion's share of the market for quite some time now, especially given the HBM inflection. How do you think about the sort of split of DRAM and NAND in the business and the market specifically? Do you expect that mix to shift further in favor of DRAM or maybe a little bit of a resurgence for NAND? Inside of Teradyne, we have this constant argument about should you measure things as a mix, like percentage of DRAM, percentage of flash, because you've got a numerator and a denominator that are both moving, right? The way we tend to look at it is, okay, what's the size of the DRAM market? How do we think it will grow? What's the size of the flash market and how do we think it will grow? The DRAM market is hot, hot, hot. In 2024, it's plateaued. In 2025, we think it's going to grow robustly as you get into HBM4, HBM4E, HBM5, and LPDDR6. Those are all going to be significant growth drivers. The DRAM market's going to grow, but from a very high base. The flash market, in 2026, there's going to be a transition in the mobile flash market to new next-generation protocols in both Android and the iOS ecosystem. The demand for solid-state drives for AI applications in the cloud is really going strong. I think flash is going to grow faster from that low, low base. If you look at it from a mix perspective, right now it's probably like 90/10-ish in terms of DRAM to flash. I think more normal would be sort of 80/20, 75/25. I think we'll be going towards that, but it's not because DRAM is going to shrink. It's more that both of them are going to grow, but flash is going to grow fast. It can recover from an awful level. Right. Okay. If we think about system-level tests for a second, what are the moving pieces there and what's the growth trajectory you expect heading into next year? How do you think this market is headed over the next few years? Yeah. Inside of our, we took our hard disk drive test group and our system-level test group. They've always been the same team of engineers, similar technologies, but it's addressing a couple of different markets. It's addressing the hard disk drive market, the solid-state drive market, the mobile SLT market, and the compute SLT market. Those four things put together are in what we call the integrated system test group, and that's part of our semi-test division. The semi-test division does semiconductor test ATE and the system-level test stuff. If you look historically, that group in the 2020-2021 timeframe was big, $250 million kind of big. In 2024, because of the slowdown in the hard disk drive market and the mobile market, it was down in the $85 million range. We think that is going to recover to above its prior peak through this midterm. We think that business could easily be 4x or 5x bigger towards the end of this midterm as it is now, and that is going to be spread across all four of those buckets. HDD is something that was big, has come way down, is going to come back both because of TAM recovery, because of bit growth rates, and also because we think we have the opportunity for share gain in that space. Solid-state drives is a space that we've had very little share, but we think we're positioned to grow our share. Mobile is a case where it is very, very low right now, but we believe that the inflection and complexity is going to drive an increase in the overall TAM, and we think we're positioned for share gain. Finally, for compute SLT, this is really a new area for us this year, but with AI accelerators driving towards the high-level quality that they need to achieve, we think that is positioned to grow sort of zero to significant tens of millions of dollars over the next few years. It's kind of crazy to talk about 4xing that business, but it's going from $250 million prior peak to $400 million, not from the low point that we are right now. Yeah. Maybe closing on a couple of financial questions if we could. On the gross margin front, you've executed very well. If you think about your kind of long-term horizon of kind of 60% gross margins, what are the levers for you to get there? Is that just more volume or more revenue gives you a better gross margin, which is kind of an obvious statement, but are there any offsetting factors in terms of large customer concentration or other exposures that would kind of offset that in any way? The thing that I'd like to emphasize is that our gross margin doesn't change much with volume. When we were in the prior peak in 2021 to sort of the low point in 2023, there's a couple of points of change across that, but it's not like some companies with significant internal operations absorption would be a really big thing. You'd see gross margins go to hell when things dip. By the same token, as our business gets stronger, our gross margin doesn't get that much better. There's a little bit of a tailwind, maybe a point or so, but it's not like all of a sudden you're printing money as the volumes go up. At the same time, we have the biggest factor, and it's really kind of the thing that I have to keep emphasizing with people is when you see our gross margin move around, don't think it's a trend because it's really related to sort of the specific configuration of products that are being purchased in any particular quarter. That mix changes on a constant basis, but it always tends to work out towards this mean of our model is 59%- 60%. Right now, we're kind of in the 58%- 59% range heading towards that, but I wouldn't expect a significant shift in that at all going forward. Okay. Fair enough. Relative to OpEx, how do you think about OpEx growth from here from a leverage perspective? Is sort of 2X or one half the rate of OpEx growth for every dollar of revenue growth the right way to think about the leverage? At the top level, that's the best way to think about it. If you take a step back, one important thing to remember is that a significant part of our OpEx is variabilized. Every permanent employee of Teradyne has a variable component to their pay. Whether you're a repair technician or an executive, you have a portion that's related to our profitability. As Teradyne becomes larger and more profitable, that OpEx scales with it. That's a part of this 50% that you're talking about. Now, 10% growth on the top line, 5% growth on OpEx, some of that is just in compensation. The rest of it is around increasing the parts of the business that need to get bigger as we get bigger. That's really customer-facing sales, service, applications. Our R&D spend would be pretty efficient as we get bigger. We think we can constrain our growth to that half of the top line growth. It's a little bit harder to do when growth is low. If growth is 5% year- on- year, it's hard to constrain growth inside of that envelope. If you have sort of 10% top line growth, that's sort of where 4%- 6% OpEx growth would be the right rule of thumb. Maybe just kind of closing out a little bit on M&A. You recently did the Quantifi Photonics acquisition. Maybe talk a little bit about what that brings to the business overall at Teradyne. If you can follow on, talk a little bit about your M&A strategy, whether you see kind of more potential for M&A, internal product areas, and so on, or areas that are additive to what you already have. Yeah. Quantifi was a really important strategic acquisition for us. Right now, we are on the cusp of a very significant technology change in networking and in data center architecture. Right now, optical networking is primarily sort of site to site, and within a server rack, it's mostly all copper-based. Over the next few years, there is going to be a significant shift towards optical-based interconnections within the rack. That is going to be really a disruptor in semiconductor test and also in product test. The big thing there is the number of optical connections, sort of the number of channels, is going up rapidly, and the data rates that are being applied in this space are also going up rapidly. When we looked around, we saw that Quantifi had the best technology around this high-channel-count optical test. We saw that our semiconductor test equipment was going to need that capability. Also, we had an opportunity to help expand them faster because of the exposure we have to CMs and ODMs through LightPoint and our production board test business. We could help them grow faster in what their original target market was, and we could also use them as a technology core for our silicon photonics work inside of semi-test. We think that this is going to help us maintain the lead that we have in networking, and we also think that it is going to give us a positive differentiation in compute as optical interconnects get onto AI accelerators. That is like two-ish years out from now, but we think that is going to be a very important aspect of testing these high-performance devices. And appetite for M&A beyond that? It's really kind of awesome. If you look back 10 years ago, Teradyne embarked on this advanced robotics business strategy because semiconductor was like, especially the back end of semiconductor, it was done. It was a mature business. Packaging technology was advancing relatively slowly. Foundries were on a certain stairstep. What's happened now is with the introduction of AI compute, there's this race for compute capacity that is pushing advanced technologies into production very, very fast. Whether it's HBM memory or advanced packaging, COLIS chip on wafer on PCB, there are all of these new technologies that are coming, and there is a tremendous amount of yield loss across that whole flow. Upwards of two-thirds of the money that's going into an AI accelerator is turning out into scrap. That's a huge economic opportunity. We're very focused on trying to find companies that are helping to solve problems in that space. Where our M&A strategy can bring them into our overall portfolio, we're really excited to try and do that. Where we see technologies that could accelerate our roadmap, like the Quantifi Photonics, and frankly, the deal that we did with Infineon Technologies, that helped accelerate our roadmap for advanced power semiconductors by 18 months. We're really interested in acquisitions that will help us become more competitive in our core markets. That's where most of our energy is going right now. Fantastic. I think that we're out of time. Greg, thank you very much for being with us today. We appreciate it. All right, thank you. Thank you.